Plateau United vs Warri Wolves prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Plateau to win: 60%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 65%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
Key factors
In short
Plateau United are clear favourites at 60%, with Warri Wolves on 14% and the draw on 26%. Plateau United are 4th and Warri Wolves 14th in the NPFL. In their last five league games, Plateau United won two and Warri Wolves one.
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Win or draw (double chance)
- Plateau United win or draw
- 86%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Warri Wolves win or draw
- 40%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 62%
- 3+ goals
- 35%
- 4+ goals
- 16%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 35%
- No
- 65%
We expect about 1.5 goals from Plateau United and 0.6 from Warri Wolves. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (18%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 5. Next: 2–0 (14%), 0–0 (12%), 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 60% | 26% | 14% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1785 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Plateau United: last 6
DLWLWD · 12 scored, 9 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Katsina United | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Oct | vs Sporting Lagos | 2–3 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Kano Pillars | 4–0 | W |
| 4 Oct | at Enyimba | 0–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs Inter Lagos | 2–0 | W |
| 23 Sep | at Doma United | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 at home: LWWWW
Warri Wolves: last 6
DDWLLW · 4 scored, 3 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Kano Pillars | 0–0 | D |
| 18 Oct | at Enyimba | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Inter Lagos | 3–1 | W |
| 4 Oct | at Doma United | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Sep | vs Enugu Rangers | 0–1 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs Shooting Stars | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: DLDLL
Season stats
| Plateau United | Warri Wolves | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.70 | Goals scored per game | 0.60 |
| 1.30 | Goals conceded per game | 0.70 |
| 2.40 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 0.20 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 20% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 20% |
| 30% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 20% | Failed to score | 60% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
NPFL table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rivers United | 10 | +10 | 17 | LDDWD |
| 2 | Enugu Rangers | 8 | +5 | 17 | DWWLW |
| 3 | Nasarawa United | 10 | +3 | 17 | WWWDW |
| 4 | Plateau United | 10 | +4 | 15 | DLWLW |
| 5 | Barau FC | 10 | +3 | 15 | DDDLD |
| 6 | Bendel Insurance | 9 | +2 | 15 | WLWLW |
| 7 | Sporting Lagos | 9 | +2 | 15 | WWDDD |
| … | |||||
| 11 | Ikorodu City | 10 | +2 | 13 | DLWLD |
| 12 | Katsina United | 10 | -2 | 13 | DLWDD |
| 13 | Kwara United | 10 | +0 | 12 | DDLWL |
| 14 | Warri Wolves | 10 | -1 | 12 | DDWLL |
| 15 | Shooting Stars | 10 | -2 | 12 | DWLDD |
| 16 | Kun Khalifat FC | 10 | -6 | 12 | WDWLW |
| 17 | Abia Warriors | 10 | -4 | 10 | LDDLW |
Match context
- Travel for Warri Wolves
- 600 km
- Rest days
- Plateau United 8Warri Wolves 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Plateau United 1 · Warri Wolves 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 30°C · wind 17 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- NPFL average: 2.35 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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