Guingamp vs Saint-Étienne prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Saint-Étienne to win: 50%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 54% · bookies 54%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The three analyses converge on Saint-Étienne as the likely winner, driven by their strong league position and superior attacking metrics. While the market suggests a 50% chance for the visitors, the underlying data points towards a higher probability of a goal-laden match. The consensus indicates a clear advantage for the away side.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Coach thinks Guingamp are underrated; The Dressing Room thinks a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersSaint-Étienne's superior offensive output and defensive solidity give them the edge.
Guingamp scores 1.60 at home but concedes 1.50 per game.
Guingamp: clearly underrated
More goalsMed The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThe league leaders Saint-Étienne bring significant momentum and stability to the fixture.
Saint-Étienne sits 1st in the table with 25 points from 10 games. Guingamp is 11th with 11 points from 10 games.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market appears to undervalue Saint-Étienne's consistent goal-scoring ability.
Saint-Étienne has a 0% failed to score rate in the season.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Saint-Étienne are favourites at 50%, with Guingamp on 24% and the draw on 26%. Guingamp are 11th and Saint-Étienne 1st in Ligue 2. In their last five league games, Guingamp won two and Saint-Étienne three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Guingamp win or draw
- 50%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Saint-Étienne win or draw
- 76%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 77%
- 3+ goals
- 53%
- 4+ goals
- 31%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 55%
- No
- 45%
We expect about 1.1 goals from Guingamp and 1.7 from Saint-Étienne. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 0–1 (10%), 1–2 (10%), 0–2 (9%), 1–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21% | 21% | 58% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1860 | |
| 2 | 24% | 26% | 50% | Prices moved | #2120 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Guingamp: last 6
WLLLWD · 8 scored, 9 conceded
| 23 Oct | at Clermont Foot | 2–0 | W |
| 16 Oct | vs PAU | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Oct | at Nancy | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs RED Star FC 93 | 1–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Annecy | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | at Reims | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 at home: LLWDW
Saint-Étienne: last 6
WWWDLW · 10 scored, 5 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Nantes | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | at RED Star FC 93 | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Rodez | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Metz | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sep | at Dunkerque | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Montpellier | 3–1 | W |
Last 5 away: WDLWW
Season stats
| Guingamp | Saint-Étienne | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30 | Goals scored per game | 2.30 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded per game | 0.80 |
| 1.60 | Scored per game at home | 2.60 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 2.00 |
| 60% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 70% |
| 60% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 20% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint-Étienne | 10 | +15 | 25 | WWWDL |
| 2 | Montpellier | 10 | +7 | 21 | WWWDW |
| 3 | Nancy | 10 | +4 | 19 | WWWWL |
| 4 | Reims | 10 | +8 | 18 | DWDDW |
| … | |||||
| 8 | Metz | 10 | +2 | 14 | DWLDL |
| 9 | Dijon | 10 | -1 | 12 | LLWWW |
| 10 | Dunkerque | 10 | -2 | 12 | DWLLW |
| 11 | Guingamp | 10 | -2 | 11 | WLLLW |
| 12 | Sochaux | 10 | -4 | 11 | LLDDW |
| 13 | Boulogne | 10 | +0 | 10 | DWDLD |
| 14 | Rodez | 10 | -6 | 10 | WLLLL |
Match context
- Rest days
- Guingamp 8Saint-Étienne 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Guingamp 1 · Saint-Étienne 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 8°C · wind 9 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Ligue 2 average: 2.68 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
