Annecy vs Montpellier prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Montpellier to win: 45%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 53% · bookies 53%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings land close to the published numbers: Montpellier's 45% is justified by their 2nd place, away record and defensive statistics, with Annecy's extra rest the main counterweight. On goals, the coach's under lean and the sceptic's slight over lean bracket the 53% line, so the total looks finely balanced around 2.5.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Montpellier's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersMontpellier's defensive numbers suggest a tighter game than the goals line implies.
Montpellier concede just 0.60 per game with clean sheets in 60% of matches, and only 30% of their games go over 2.5. Annecy leak 1.20 per game yet have failed to score in 0% of matches, so both teams scoring is live, but the visitors' control points under the total line.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureSecond-placed Montpellier arrive with the stronger position but on shorter rest.
Montpellier sit 2nd on 21 points from 10 games; Annecy are 7th on 16. Annecy's home form reads L L D W L with 6 scored and 7 conceded, so the gap is real. But Montpellier play 4 days after their last match, two games in 14, while Annecy have had 7 days to prepare.
Montpellier: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe away lean looks right, but the goals line may be a touch low.
With both teams scoring at 56% and 3+ goals at 53% in the numbers, the over sits right on the edge rather than clearly under it.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Montpellier are favourites at 45%, with Annecy on 28% and the draw on 27%. Annecy are 7th and Montpellier 2nd in Ligue 2. In their last five league games, Annecy won two and Montpellier four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Annecy win or draw
- 55%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Montpellier win or draw
- 72%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 77%
- 3+ goals
- 53%
- 4+ goals
- 30%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 56%
- No
- 44%
We expect about 1.2 goals from Annecy and 1.6 from Montpellier. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (10%), 1–2 (9%), 0–2 (8%), 1–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28% | 27% | 45% | Stats preview | #1875 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Annecy: last 6
WLWLLW · 9 scored, 8 conceded
| 23 Oct | at Sochaux | 3–1 | W |
| 16 Oct | vs Nancy | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Oct | at Dunkerque | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Sep | vs Dijon | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | at Guingamp | 1–2 | L |
| 4 Sep | at Grenoble | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: LLDWL
Montpellier: last 6
WWWDWL · 10 scored, 5 conceded
| 26 Oct | vs RED Star FC 93 | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Oct | at Rodez | 3–0 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Grenoble | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Sep | at Reims | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Sep | vs PAU | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | at Saint Etienne | 1–3 | L |
Last 5 away: WDLWW
Season stats
| Annecy | Montpellier | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.40 | Goals scored per game | 1.30 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded per game | 0.60 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game at home | 1.20 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 1.40 |
| 60% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 30% |
| 70% | Both teams scored | 40% |
| 30% | Clean sheets | 60% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 10% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Etienne | 10 | +15 | 25 | WWWDL |
| 2 | Montpellier | 10 | +7 | 21 | WWWDW |
| 3 | Nancy | 10 | +4 | 19 | WWWWL |
| 4 | Reims | 10 | +8 | 18 | DWDDW |
| 5 | PAU | 10 | +3 | 17 | WWWWL |
| 6 | RED Star FC 93 | 10 | +1 | 17 | LLWWW |
| 7 | Annecy | 10 | +2 | 16 | WLWLL |
| 8 | Metz | 10 | +2 | 14 | DWLDL |
| 9 | Dijon | 10 | -1 | 12 | LLWWW |
| 10 | Dunkerque | 10 | -2 | 12 | DWLLW |
Match context
- Travel for Montpellier
- 311 km
- Rest days
- Annecy 7Montpellier 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Annecy 1 · Montpellier 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 10°C · wind 10 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Ligue 2 average: 2.68 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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