Laval vs Boulogne prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Laval 37%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 55% · bookies 55%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings land within a few points of the published 37/29/34 split, so the market looks well judged. The main doubt is the goals line: Boulogne's miserly away record and low over rate pull against the 45% over price, while Laval's leaky defence keeps it from collapsing. A tight, low-scoring contest with a draw live is the consensus.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersLaval's open games meet Boulogne's tight defence - a low-scoring draw leans here.
Both teams score in 80% of Laval's matches, but Boulogne's 40% fail-to-score rate tempers that.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureBoth sides are stuck near the bottom and a draw suits neither's nerves.
Laval sit 18th with 6 points from 10 games and one win, losing four of their last six. Boulogne are 13th on 10 points but with seven draws in ten, so neither can afford to sit back. Laval have had 7 days' rest to Boulogne's 3, a small edge for the home side.
Boulogne: slightly overrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe over 2.5 price looks too high given Boulogne's away record.
The published 45% over rate seems generous. Laval's 70% over rate keeps it close, but the 2.68 league scoring average doesn't force this one over.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Laval are slight favourites at 37%, with Boulogne on 34% and the draw on 29%. Laval are 18th and Boulogne 13th in Ligue 2. In their last five league games, Laval won none and Boulogne one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Laval win or draw
- 66%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Boulogne win or draw
- 63%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 71%
- 3+ goals
- 45%
- 4+ goals
- 24%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Laval and 1.2 from Boulogne. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (10%), 0–0 (8%), 2–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% | 29% | 34% | Stats preview | #1862 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Laval: last 6
LDLDLL · 9 scored, 13 conceded
| 23 Oct | at Nancy | 0–1 | L |
| 16 Oct | vs Clermont Foot | 3–3 | D |
| 9 Oct | at PAU | 2–3 | L |
| 18 Sep | vs Sochaux | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Sep | at Dijon | 2–3 | L |
| 4 Sep | vs RED Star FC 93 | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: DDLLW
Boulogne: last 6
DWDLDD · 6 scored, 5 conceded
| 26 Oct | vs Reims | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Oct | at Grenoble | 2–0 | W |
| 9 Oct | at Sochaux | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Nantes | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Sep | at Clermont Foot | 0–0 | D |
| 4 Sep | vs Dijon | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: WDDDL
Season stats
| Laval | Boulogne | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30 | Goals scored per game | 0.70 |
| 2.10 | Goals conceded per game | 0.70 |
| 1.40 | Scored per game at home | 0.80 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game away | 0.60 |
| 70% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 10% |
| 80% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 40% |
| 20% | Failed to score | 40% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Dunkerque | 10 | -2 | 12 | DWLLW |
| 11 | Guingamp | 10 | -2 | 11 | WLLLW |
| 12 | Sochaux | 10 | -4 | 11 | LLDDW |
| 13 | Boulogne | 10 | +0 | 10 | DWDLD |
| 14 | Rodez | 10 | -6 | 10 | WLLLL |
| 15 | Nantes | 10 | -6 | 8 | LLDWL |
| 16 | Grenoble | 10 | -8 | 8 | LLLDW |
| 17 | Clermont Foot | 10 | -5 | 7 | LDLDD |
| 18 | Laval | 10 | -8 | 6 | LDLDL |
Match context
- Travel for Boulogne
- 341 km
- Rest days
- Laval 7Boulogne 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Laval 1 · Boulogne 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 9°C · wind 8 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- David Vignes
- Laval, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Ligue 2 average: 2.68 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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