Metz vs PAU prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Metz to win: 45%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 54% · bookies 54%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The coach sees goals from Metz's 2.40 home scoring rate and both teams' soft defences; the dressing room notes PAU's better form and position; the sceptic finds only a small draw lean. Over 2.5 stays near 54%.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo leaky defences point to goals, with Metz's home scoring the engine.
Metz score 2.40 per game at home but keep clean sheets only 10%, and both teams scored in 80% of their matches. With the league at 2.68 goals per match, a 2-1-style home scoreline fits the profile.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressurePAU arrive fifth and in form; Metz must protect home momentum.
PAU sit 5th on 17 points from 10 games with four wins in their last six; Metz are 8th on 14 points, five draws in ten showing games slipping. Both had 7 days' rest, so freshness is equal. Metz's unbeaten-looking home run (W D W D W) is their platform.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPrices look fair, but PAU's away record argues for a draw lean.
Metz's 46% rests on home scoring, but they lost at Dijon 2-4 and RED Star recently. Over 2.5 at 54% looks right.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Metz are favourites at 45%, with PAU on 30% and the draw on 25%. Metz are 8th and PAU 5th in Ligue 2. In their last five league games, Metz won one and PAU four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Metz win or draw
- 70%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- PAU win or draw
- 54%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 54%
- 4+ goals
- 32%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 57%
- No
- 43%
We expect about 1.6 goals from Metz and 1.2 from PAU. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–0 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 2–0 (7%), 0–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% | 25% | 30% | Stats preview | #1964 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Metz: last 6
DWLDLW · 12 scored, 11 conceded
| 23 Oct | at Dunkerque | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Sochaux | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Oct | at Dijon | 2–4 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Saint Etienne | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Sep | at RED Star FC 93 | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Rodez | 4–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: WDWDW
PAU: last 6
WWWWLD · 10 scored, 6 conceded
| 23 Oct | vs Grenoble | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Oct | at Guingamp | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Laval | 3–2 | W |
| 18 Sep | vs Dunkerque | 2–0 | W |
| 11 Sep | at Montpellier | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Sep | vs Sochaux | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: WLDWL
Season stats
| Metz | PAU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 | Goals scored per game | 1.30 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 2.40 | Scored per game at home | 1.33 |
| 0.80 | Scored per game away | 1.25 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 40% |
| 80% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 10% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 20% | Failed to score | 30% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Montpellier | 10 | +7 | 21 | WWWDW |
| 3 | Nancy | 10 | +4 | 19 | WWWWL |
| 4 | Reims | 10 | +8 | 18 | DWDDW |
| 5 | PAU | 10 | +3 | 17 | WWWWL |
| 6 | RED Star FC 93 | 10 | +1 | 17 | LLWWW |
| 7 | Annecy | 10 | +2 | 16 | WLWLL |
| 8 | Metz | 10 | +2 | 14 | DWLDL |
| 9 | Dijon | 10 | -1 | 12 | LLWWW |
| 10 | Dunkerque | 10 | -2 | 12 | DWLLW |
| 11 | Guingamp | 10 | -2 | 11 | WLLLW |
Match context
- Travel for PAU
- 817 km
- Rest days
- Metz 7PAU 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Metz 2 · PAU 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 9°C · wind 8 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Ligue 2 average: 2.68 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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