Troyes vs Le Mans prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Troyes to win: 43%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 52% · bookies 52%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings lean the same way: Troyes edge the 1X2 near the published 43/27/30, but neither side convinces, with Troyes winless in six and Le Mans drawing heavily. On goals, the coach and sceptic both nudge the over 2.5 line above its published 52%, citing two leaky defences and Le Mans' 75% over-rate, so a 2-1-type scoreline is the consensus picture.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth defences leak; goals look likelier than the total line suggests.
Troyes concede 2.00 per game and Le Mans also concede 2.00, with Le Mans keeping no clean sheets and scoring 1.38 per game.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTwo struggling sides, but Troyes' home slump makes this a must-show game.
Troyes sit 17th with 5 points from 8 (W1 D2 L5) and have lost five of their last six, while Le Mans are 15th with 7 points from 8 (W1 D4 L3). Troyes' home form reads L L L D L with 5 scored and 15 conceded. Both had 6 days' rest, so freshness is equal.
Troyes: slightly overrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe prices look broadly fair, though the total line may be a shade low.
With both teams scoring 56% and Le Mans over 2.5 in 75% of matches, over 2.5 at 52% looks slightly conservative.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Troyes are slight favourites at 43%, with Le Mans on 30% and the draw on 27%. Troyes are 17th and Le Mans 15th in Ligue 1. In their last five league games, Troyes won none and Le Mans one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Troyes win or draw
- 70%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Le Mans win or draw
- 57%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 76%
- 3+ goals
- 52%
- 4+ goals
- 30%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 56%
- No
- 44%
We expect about 1.5 goals from Troyes and 1.2 from Le Mans. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 1–2 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% | 25% | 42% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1908 | |
| 2 | 43% | 27% | 30% | Prices moved | #2134 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Troyes: last 6
DLLLLL · 3 scored, 15 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Toulouse | 0–0 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Lens | 1–3 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Marseille | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Angers | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | at Lille | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Strasbourg | 2–6 | L |
Last 5 at home: LLLDL
Le Mans: last 6
DLLWDD · 7 scored, 11 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Auxerre | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Oct | vs Toulouse | 0–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Paris Saint Germain | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Lorient | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Lens | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sep | at Nice | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: DLDLL
Season stats
| Troyes | Le Mans | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.62 | Goals scored per game | 1.38 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded per game | 2.00 |
| 0.75 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 0.50 | Scored per game away | 1.25 |
| 38% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 75% |
| 38% | Both teams scored | 88% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 62% | Failed to score | 12% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Auxerre | 8 | -6 | 10 | DWLWW |
| 13 | Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | +2 | 9 | LDWLL |
| 14 | Angers | 8 | -6 | 8 | DLLWD |
| 15 | Le Mans | 8 | -5 | 7 | DLLWD |
| 16 | Strasbourg | 8 | -6 | 7 | LLLLD |
| 17 | Troyes | 8 | -11 | 5 | DLLLL |
| 18 | Le Havre | 8 | -7 | 2 | LLLLD |
Match context
- Travel for Le Mans
- 289 km
- Rest days
- Troyes 6Le Mans 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Troyes 1 · Le Mans 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 8°C · wind 8 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- S. Dumont
- Troyes, since Oct 2026
- P. Videira
- Le Mans, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Ligue 1 average: 2.97 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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