Lille vs Lens prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Lille to win: 40%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 56% · bookies 56%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The three readings suggest a tight contest where Lens's attacking output is a key factor. While Lille's position is strong, their recent home form is inconsistent. The overall data points towards a high-scoring match, aligning closely with the published market expectations.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Dressing Room thinks Lille are underrated; The Sceptic thinks Lens are underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersLens possess a potent attacking threat away from home, contrasting with Lille's defensive stability at the venue.
Lille score 1.50 per game at home and concede 0.75. Lens score 1.75 away and concede 1.50. Season stats show BTTS at 50% for Lille and 88% for Lens.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureLille's superior league position and rest advantage provide a slight edge over Lens's mid-table standing.
Lille sit 3rd with 15 points from 8 games. Lens are 7th with 13 points from 8 games. Lille have 5 days rest, compared to Lens's 6 days.
Lille: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market may overvalue Lille's home advantage given their recent inconsistent form and defensive vulnerabilities.
Lille's last 5 home games resulted in 8 goals scored and 8 goals conceded. Lens have a higher season scoring rate of 2.00 compared to Lille's 1.38.
Lens: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Lille are slight favourites at 40%, with Lens on 33% and the draw on 27%. Lille are 3rd and Lens 7th in Ligue 1. In their last five league games, Lille won two and Lens three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Lille win or draw
- 67%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Lens win or draw
- 60%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 79%
- 3+ goals
- 56%
- 4+ goals
- 33%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 59%
- No
- 41%
We expect about 1.5 goals from Lille and 1.4 from Lens. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (8%), 1–2 (8%), 0–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% | 27% | 33% | Stats preview | #1868 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Lille: last 6
DLDLWL · 6 scored, 11 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Monaco | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Oct | vs Galatasaray UEFA Champions League | 2–4 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Stade Brestois 29 | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Oct | at Arsenal UEFA Champions League | 0–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Le Havre | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Nice | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: LDWWL
Lens: last 6
WLWLWL · 8 scored, 10 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Paris FC | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Oct | at Club Brugge KV UEFA Champions League | 0–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Estac Troyes | 3–1 | W |
| 13 Oct | vs Sporting CP UEFA Champions League | 0–2 | L |
| 9 Oct | vs Lyon | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Sep | at Monaco | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LWLDW
Season stats
| Lille | Lens | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.38 | Goals scored per game | 2.00 |
| 0.75 | Goals conceded per game | 1.50 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game at home | 2.25 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game away | 1.75 |
| 25% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 88% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 88% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 12% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Ligue 1 table
Match context
- Travel for Lens
- 27 km
- Rest days
- Lille 5Lens 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Lille 3 · Lens 3
- Weather at kick-off
- 9°C · wind 10 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- Davide Ancelotti
- Lille, since Oct 2026
- Yannick Cahuzac
- Lens, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Ligue 1 average: 2.97 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
