Nice vs Stade Rennais prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Stade Rennais to win: 40%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 63% · bookies 63%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings land within a few points of the published numbers: a tight match leaning marginally to Rennes, softened by Nice's solid home record and Rennes' shaky away defence. The over 2.5 line at 63% sits comfortably with Rennes' 88% over rate and the 2.97 goals-per-match environment, so the goals expectation looks well founded.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Nice's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth attacks should find room in an open, goal-friendly matchup.
Rennes score 2.25 a game and 2.60 away, while Nice concede 1.25. Rennes keep clean sheets just 25%, so a home goal looks likely.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureSecond-placed Rennes carry the pressure but also the momentum.
Rennes have 16 points from 8 games, five wins, against Nice's 11 from 8. Nice get 7 days' rest to Rennes' 6, with the visitors playing three games in 14 days.
Stade Rennais: slightly overrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe away favouritism looks slightly generous given Rennes' away record.
Nice have won three of their last five at home. The 63% over line matches Rennes' 88% over-2.5 rate but Nice sit at 62%, so it looks about right, maybe a touch high.
Nice: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Stade Rennais are slight favourites at 40%, with Nice on 35% and the draw on 25%. Nice are 10th and Stade Rennais 2nd in Ligue 1. In their last five league games, Nice won three and Stade Rennais three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Nice win or draw
- 60%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Stade Rennais win or draw
- 65%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 83%
- 3+ goals
- 62%
- 4+ goals
- 40%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 64%
- No
- 36%
We expect about 1.5 goals from Nice and 1.7 from Stade Rennais. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–2 (9%), 2–1 (8%), 0–1 (7%), 2–2 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% | 24% | 39% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1869 | |
| 2 | 35% | 25% | 40% | Prices moved | #2122 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Nice: last 6
WLWWLD · 8 scored, 7 conceded
| 23 Oct | at Stade Brestois 29 | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Oct | at Lyon | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Strasbourg | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Lille | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Auxerre | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Le Mans | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: WWDDW
Stade Rennais: last 6
WDLWWL · 14 scored, 12 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Strasbourg | 3–0 | W |
| 22 Oct | at Juventus UEFA Europa League | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Oct | at Paris FC | 3–4 | L |
| 15 Oct | vs OFI UEFA Europa League | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Auxerre | 4–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Lyon | 0–4 | L |
Last 5 away: DLLDW
Season stats
| Nice | Stade Rennais | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 2.25 |
| 1.25 | Goals conceded per game | 1.75 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game at home | 2.60 |
| 0.75 | Scored per game away | 1.67 |
| 62% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 88% |
| 62% | Both teams scored | 62% |
| 12% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 38% | Failed to score | 12% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 8 | +7 | 17 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Stade Rennais | 8 | +4 | 16 | WLWLW |
| 3 | Lille | 8 | +5 | 15 | DDWLW |
| 4 | Monaco | 8 | +4 | 15 | DLDWD |
| 5 | Lyon | 8 | +6 | 14 | LWLWD |
| … | |||||
| 7 | Lens | 8 | +4 | 13 | WWWLD |
| 8 | Marseille | 8 | +5 | 12 | WWWLL |
| 9 | Lorient | 8 | +1 | 12 | DWWLD |
| 10 | Nice | 8 | -2 | 11 | WLWWL |
| 11 | Toulouse | 8 | +1 | 10 | DWDWD |
| 12 | Auxerre | 8 | -6 | 10 | DWLWW |
| 13 | Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | +2 | 9 | LDWLL |
Match context
- Travel for Stade Rennais
- 846 km
- Rest days
- Nice 7Stade Rennais 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Nice 2 · Stade Rennais 3
- Weather at kick-off
- 18°C · wind 1 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- O. Pantaloni
- Nice, since Oct 2026
- F. Haise
- Stade Rennais, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Ligue 1 average: 2.97 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
