Le Havre AC vs Paris Saint Germain prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Paris Saint Germain to win: 81%, about 4 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 74% · bookies 74%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersPSG's away scoring meets a Le Havre defence that leaks, so goals look likely.
PSG score 2.00 a game away and Le Havre concede 1.88 per match with clean sheets in just 12% of games. Le Havre score 0.50 at home, so PSG's 25% clean-sheet rate may not be tested. Both-teams-scored sits at 55% published, and 3+ goals at 74% fits these rates.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureBottom-side Le Havre face a relentless PSG side with far fresher legs.
Le Havre sit 18th with 2 points from 8 games and no wins, losing five of their last six. PSG lead with 17 points and have won six straight. Le Havre have 5 days' rest to PSG's 3, but PSG's fixture load has not dented results, including wins over Barcelona and Manchester City.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe 81% on PSG looks fair, but the 74% over line may be a touch high.
With Le Havre blunt at home, the 74% over 2.5 could be a few points generous.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Paris Saint Germain are clear favourites at 81%, with Le Havre AC on 8% and the draw on 11%. Le Havre AC are 18th and Paris Saint Germain 1st in Ligue 1. In their last five league games, Le Havre AC won none and Paris Saint Germain five.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Le Havre AC win or draw
- 19%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 88%
- Paris Saint Germain win or draw
- 92%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 90%
- 3+ goals
- 74%
- 4+ goals
- 54%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 55%
- No
- 45%
We expect about 0.9 goals from Le Havre AC and 3.0 from Paris Saint Germain. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–3 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 0–2 (9%), 1–3 (8%), 1–2 (8%), 0–4 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8% | 12% | 81% | Stats preview | #1871 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Le Havre AC: last 6
LLLLDL · 7 scored, 13 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Marseille | 3–4 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Auxerre | 1–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Lille | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Toulouse | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Angers | 0–0 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs Stade Brestois 29 | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: LDLLL
Paris Saint Germain: last 6
WWWWWW · 18 scored, 7 conceded
| 26 Oct | vs Lyon | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Oct | vs Barcelona UEFA Champions League | 4–2 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Strasbourg | 3–1 | W |
| 14 Oct | at Manchester City UEFA Champions League | 4–2 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Le Mans | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Marseille | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 away: WWWWD
Season stats
| Le Havre AC | Paris Saint Germain | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 2.00 |
| 1.88 | Goals conceded per game | 1.12 |
| 0.50 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 2.00 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 75% |
| 62% | Both teams scored | 75% |
| 12% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 38% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 8 | +7 | 17 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Rennes | 8 | +4 | 16 | WLWLW |
| 3 | Lille | 8 | +5 | 15 | DDWLW |
| 4 | Monaco | 8 | +4 | 15 | DLDWD |
| … | |||||
| 15 | Le Mans | 8 | -5 | 7 | DLLWD |
| 16 | Strasbourg | 8 | -6 | 7 | LLLLD |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 8 | -11 | 5 | DLLLL |
| 18 | Le Havre AC | 8 | -7 | 2 | LLLLD |
Match context
- Travel for Paris Saint Germain
- 177 km
- Rest days
- Le Havre AC 5Paris Saint Germain 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Le Havre AC 2 · Paris Saint Germain 3
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 8 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- D. Digard
- Le Havre AC, since Oct 2026
- Luis Enrique
- Paris Saint Germain, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Ligue 1 average: 2.97 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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