Marseille vs Toulouse prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Marseille to win: 51%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 61% · bookies 61%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
Key factors
In short
Marseille are favourites at 51%, with Toulouse on 26% and the draw on 23%. Marseille are 8th and Toulouse 11th in Ligue 1. In their last five league games, Marseille won three and Toulouse two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Marseille win or draw
- 74%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 77%
- Toulouse win or draw
- 49%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 82%
- 3+ goals
- 60%
- 4+ goals
- 38%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 61%
- No
- 39%
We expect about 1.9 goals from Marseille and 1.3 from Toulouse. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (8%), 2–0 (8%), 1–2 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51% | 21% | 28% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1873 | |
| 2 | 51% | 23% | 26% | Prices moved | #2195 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Marseille: last 6
WLWLWL · 12 scored, 9 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Le Havre | 4–3 | W |
| 22 Oct | at Sturm Graz UEFA Europa League | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Oct | at Angers | 5–2 | W |
| 15 Oct | vs Olympiakos Piraeus UEFA Europa League | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Estac Troyes | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Paris Saint Germain | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: WLLLW
Toulouse: last 6
DWDWDL · 10 scored, 7 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Estac Troyes | 0–0 | D |
| 16 Oct | at Le Mans | 3–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Monaco | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Le Havre | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Lorient | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Sep | vs Lille | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 away: WDDDL
Season stats
| Marseille | Toulouse | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.25 | Goals scored per game | 1.50 |
| 1.62 | Goals conceded per game | 1.38 |
| 2.75 | Scored per game at home | 0.75 |
| 1.75 | Scored per game away | 2.25 |
| 62% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 38% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Ligue 1 table
Match context
- Travel for Toulouse
- 319 km
- Rest days
- Marseille 7Toulouse 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Marseille 2 · Toulouse 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 14°C · wind 10 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- Bruno Genesio
- Marseille, since Oct 2026
- Jens Berthel Askou
- Toulouse, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Ligue 1 average: 2.97 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
