Strasbourg vs AJ Auxerre prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Strasbourg to win: 54%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 60% · bookies 60%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
Key factors
In short
Strasbourg are favourites at 54%, with AJ Auxerre on 23% and the draw on 23%. Strasbourg are 16th and AJ Auxerre 12th in Ligue 1. In their last five league games, Strasbourg won none and AJ Auxerre three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Strasbourg win or draw
- 77%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 77%
- AJ Auxerre win or draw
- 47%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 82%
- 3+ goals
- 60%
- 4+ goals
- 38%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 60%
- No
- 40%
We expect about 1.9 goals from Strasbourg and 1.2 from AJ Auxerre. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 3–1 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% | 21% | 30% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1966 | |
| 2 | 53% | 23% | 23% | Prices moved | #2213 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Strasbourg: last 6
LLLLDW · 10 scored, 13 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Rennes | 0–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Paris Saint Germain | 1–3 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Nice | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Paris FC | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Monaco | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | at Estac Troyes | 6–2 | W |
Last 5 at home: LDWLW
AJ Auxerre: last 6
DWLWWL · 9 scored, 10 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Le Mans | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | at Le Havre | 3–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Rennes | 1–4 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Stade Brestois 29 | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Nice | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Sep | at Lyon | 1–3 | L |
Last 4 away: WLLL
Season stats
| Strasbourg | AJ Auxerre | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | Goals scored per game | 1.50 |
| 2.25 | Goals conceded per game | 2.25 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game at home | 1.25 |
| 1.60 | Scored per game away | 1.75 |
| 88% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 75% |
| 75% | Both teams scored | 88% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 12% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Lorient | 8 | +1 | 12 | DWWLD |
| 10 | Nice | 8 | -2 | 11 | WLWWL |
| 11 | Toulouse | 8 | +1 | 10 | DWDWD |
| 12 | AJ Auxerre | 8 | -6 | 10 | DWLWW |
| 13 | Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | +2 | 9 | LDWLL |
| 14 | Angers | 8 | -6 | 8 | DLLWD |
| 15 | Le Mans | 8 | -5 | 7 | DLLWD |
| 16 | Strasbourg | 8 | -6 | 7 | LLLLD |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 8 | -11 | 5 | DLLLL |
| 18 | Le Havre | 8 | -7 | 2 | LLLLD |
Match context
- Travel for AJ Auxerre
- 321 km
- Rest days
- Strasbourg 6AJ Auxerre 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Strasbourg 1 · AJ Auxerre 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 12 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- Hugo Oliveira
- Strasbourg, since Oct 2026
- W. Still
- AJ Auxerre, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Ligue 1 average: 2.97 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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