Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29 prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Lorient 39%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 53% · bookies 53%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings land close to the published numbers: a near-even match with Lorient marginally favoured at 39%, draw 28%, Brest 33%. The Coach sees the best case for goals given Brest's 75% over rate and zero clean sheets, nudging the over above the published 47%, while the Sceptic and Dressing Room keep it around the line.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBrest bring the goals, Lorient bring the clean sheets - something gives
Lorient keep a clean sheet in 62% of matches and fail to score only 25% of the time, while Brest have zero clean sheets and both teams score in 88% of their games.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureMid-table pair with time to prepare - a tight, low-stakes affair
Lorient sit 9th on 12 points, Brest 13th on 9, so neither is under acute pressure. Lorient have 6 days' rest and two games in 14 days; Brest have had 8 days off with just one match in the same span, so freshness favours the visitors slightly.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe prices look fair, but the over may be a touch short
With Lorient at 1.3 at home, a total near 2.5 makes the 47% over line about right, maybe a shade low.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Lorient are slight favourites at 39%, with Stade Brestois 29 on 33% and the draw on 28%. Lorient are 9th and Stade Brestois 29 13th in Ligue 1. In their last five league games, Lorient won two and Stade Brestois 29 one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Lorient win or draw
- 67%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Stade Brestois 29 win or draw
- 61%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 72%
- 3+ goals
- 47%
- 4+ goals
- 26%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 52%
- No
- 48%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Lorient and 1.2 from Stade Brestois 29. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (10%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (8%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% | 27% | 32% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1926 | |
| 2 | 39% | 28% | 33% | Prices moved | #2139 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Lorient: last 6
DWWLDW · 6 scored, 4 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Angers | 0–0 | D |
| 18 Oct | vs Monaco | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Paris FC | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Le Mans | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Toulouse | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sep | at Lens | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWDLD
Stade Brestois 29: last 6
LDWLLW · 10 scored, 8 conceded
| 23 Oct | vs Nice | 1–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Lille | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Angers | 5–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Auxerre | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Paris Saint Germain | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | at Le Havre | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 away: DLWDD
Season stats
| Lorient | Stade Brestois 29 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.88 | Goals scored per game | 1.75 |
| 0.75 | Goals conceded per game | 1.50 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 0.50 | Scored per game away | 1.50 |
| 38% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 75% |
| 38% | Both teams scored | 88% |
| 62% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 12% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Ligue 1 table
Match context
- Travel for Stade Brestois 29
- 109 km
- Rest days
- Lorient 6Stade Brestois 29 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Lorient 2 · Stade Brestois 29 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 10°C · wind 12 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- A. Dujeux
- Lorient, since Oct 2026
- Julien Lachuer
- Stade Brestois 29, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Ligue 1 average: 2.97 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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