Paris FC vs AS Monaco prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Paris to win: 41%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 53%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
In short
Paris FC are slight favourites at 41%, with AS Monaco on 32% and the draw on 27%. Paris FC are 6th and AS Monaco 4th in Ligue 1. In their last five league games, Paris FC won two and AS Monaco one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Paris FC win or draw
- 68%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- AS Monaco win or draw
- 59%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 72%
- 3+ goals
- 47%
- 4+ goals
- 25%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 52%
- No
- 48%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Paris FC and 1.2 from AS Monaco. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% | 27% | 32% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1872 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Paris FC: last 6
LWLWDW · 10 scored, 9 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Lens | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Rennes | 4–3 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Lorient | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Strasbourg | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Lyon | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Sep | at Marseille | 3–2 | W |
Last 4 at home: WWDW
AS Monaco: last 6
DWLWDW · 10 scored, 6 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Lille | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Oct | vs SC Freiburg UEFA Europa Conference League | 3–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | at Lorient | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Oct | at CSKA Sofia UEFA Europa Conference League | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Toulouse | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Sep | vs Lens | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 away: LWDWW
Season stats
| Paris FC | AS Monaco | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.62 | Goals scored per game | 1.38 |
| 1.12 | Goals conceded per game | 0.88 |
| 2.25 | Scored per game at home | 1.75 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 62% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 38% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 62% |
| 38% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 38% | Failed to score | 12% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Ligue 1 table
Match context
- Rest days
- Paris FC 7AS Monaco 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Paris FC 1 · AS Monaco 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 11°C · wind 10 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- L. Rosenior
- Paris FC, since Oct 2026
- Filipe Luís
- AS Monaco, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Ligue 1 average: 2.97 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
