Puebla vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
U.N.A.M. - Pumas to win: 40%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 54% · bookies 54%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three cards lean the same way: the published 40-28-32 for the away side and 54% over 2.5 look fair. The Sceptic nudge the away chance up slightly on Pumas' stronger attack and the market's 54% over as a touch generous, but nobody strays far - a close game with goals is the collective read.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth attacks outperform their clean sheets - goals at both ends look likely
Pumas average 1.43 goals scored per game even away, while Puebla ship 1.50 per game with clean sheets in just 21% of matches. BTTS in 57% and 64% of their games points to chances at both ends.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureLow table pair who can find no distance on each other
One place and one point separate them, and neither run offers comfort: Puebla are winless in six, Pumas have one win in six.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market leans too heavily on Pumas' last three results
Puebla's 0-0 at Tijuana hints they can shut a modest attack. Market probabilities look broadly right; the 54% over line is slightly generous.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
U.N.A.M. - Pumas are slight favourites at 40%, with Puebla on 32% and the draw on 28%. Puebla are 14th and U.N.A.M. - Pumas 12th in Liga MX. In their last five league games, Puebla won none and U.N.A.M. - Pumas one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Puebla win or draw
- 60%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas win or draw
- 68%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 77%
- 3+ goals
- 53%
- 4+ goals
- 31%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 57%
- No
- 43%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Puebla and 1.5 from U.N.A.M. - Pumas. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (9%), 1–2 (9%), 1–0 (8%), 2–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32% | 28% | 40% | Stats preview | #1960 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Puebla: last 6
LLDDLD · 6 scored, 11 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Atlas | 3–4 | L |
| 22 Oct | vs Monterrey | 1–4 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Club Tijuana | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Leon | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Sep | at Tigres UANL | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Atlante FC | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: LDDLW
U.N.A.M. - Pumas: last 6
DLWDLD · 9 scored, 11 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Tigres UANL | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Oct | at Santos Laguna | 0–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Atlante FC | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Oct | vs Cruz Azul | 3–3 | D |
| 27 Sep | vs Atletico San Luis | 2–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Atlas | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: LWDLL
Season stats
| Puebla | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.14 | Goals scored per game | 1.43 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded per game | 1.64 |
| 1.17 | Scored per game at home | 1.43 |
| 1.12 | Scored per game away | 1.43 |
| 36% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 57% |
| 57% | Both teams scored | 64% |
| 21% | Clean sheets | 7% |
| 29% | Failed to score | 36% |
League matches only, 14 games each.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Club Queretaro | 13 | -1 | 20 | LLLWW |
| 10 | Santos Laguna | 14 | +0 | 19 | LWWWW |
| 11 | Atletico San Luis | 14 | -3 | 19 | WWDLW |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 14 | -3 | 17 | DLWDL |
| 13 | CF Pachuca | 14 | +3 | 16 | WLLDL |
| 14 | Puebla | 14 | -5 | 16 | LLDDL |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 14 | -4 | 15 | DLDWW |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 14 | -6 | 14 | LWLLW |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | -11 | 10 | DLLDL |
Match context
- Travel for U.N.A.M. - Pumas
- 105 km
- Rest days
- Puebla 5U.N.A.M. - Pumas 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Puebla 3 · U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 17°C · wind 3 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- Gerardo Espinoza
- Puebla, since Oct 2026
- E. Solari
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Liga MX average: 3.01 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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