Club America vs Toluca prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Club America 38%)
Goals call3+ goals 66% · bookies 66%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
In short
Club America are slight favourites at 38%, with Toluca on 38% and the draw on 24%. Club America are 1st and Toluca 5th in Liga MX. In their last five league games, Club America won three and Toluca none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Club America win or draw
- 62%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Toluca win or draw
- 62%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 85%
- 3+ goals
- 65%
- 4+ goals
- 44%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 66%
- No
- 34%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Club America and 1.7 from Toluca. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%), 2–2 (7%), 1–0 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% | 24% | 38% | Stats preview | #2147 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Club America: last 6
LWWDWD · 18 scored, 12 conceded
| 26 Oct | vs CF Pachuca | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Oct | at Atlas | 5–2 | W |
| 18 Oct | at Leon | 5–3 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Monterrey | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Sep | at Necaxa | 4–2 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Guadalajara Chivas | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 at home: LDDWW
Toluca: last 6
DDDLDL · 11 scored, 13 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Leon | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Oct | vs Club Tijuana | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Oct | vs Atletico San Luis | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Tigres UANL | 2–3 | L |
| 26 Sep | at Cruz Azul | 3–3 | D |
| 21 Sep | vs Santos Laguna | 2–3 | L |
Last 5 away: DLDWW
Season stats
| Club America | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.54 | Goals scored per game | 2.07 |
| 1.38 | Goals conceded per game | 1.36 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 2.57 |
| 3.00 | Scored per game away | 1.57 |
| 69% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 64% |
| 69% | Both teams scored | 71% |
| 31% | Clean sheets | 29% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 7% |
League matches only, 13 and 14 games.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 13 | +15 | 27 | LWWDW |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 14 | +9 | 26 | WWWDD |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | +9 | 26 | WWDDL |
| 4 | Atlas | 14 | -1 | 24 | WLWDW |
| 5 | Toluca | 14 | +10 | 23 | DDDLD |
| 6 | Leon | 14 | +3 | 22 | DWLDW |
| 7 | Monterrey | 13 | +5 | 20 | LWWDL |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 13 | +4 | 20 | WDDDL |
Match context
- Travel for Toluca
- 57 km
- Rest days
- Club America 6Toluca 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Club America 2 · Toluca 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 20°C · wind 13 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- G. Almada
- Club America, since Oct 2026
- A. Mohamed
- Toluca, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Liga MX average: 3.01 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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