Cruz Azul vs Leon prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Cruz Azul to win: 58%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 64% · bookies 64%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
Key factors
In short
Cruz Azul are favourites at 58%, with Leon on 20% and the draw on 22%. Cruz Azul are 2nd and Leon 6th in Liga MX. In their last five league games, Cruz Azul won three and Leon two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Cruz Azul win or draw
- 80%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 78%
- Leon win or draw
- 42%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 84%
- 3+ goals
- 64%
- 4+ goals
- 42%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 61%
- No
- 39%
We expect about 2.1 goals from Cruz Azul and 1.2 from Leon. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 1–0 (8%), 3–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% | 22% | 20% | Stats preview | #2212 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Cruz Azul: last 6
WWWDDL · 16 scored, 9 conceded
| 26 Oct | at Club Queretaro | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Oct | at CF Pachuca | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs FC Juarez | 5–0 | W |
| 12 Oct | at U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 3–3 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Toluca | 3–3 | D |
| 20 Sep | at Monterrey | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: WDWWL
Leon: last 6
DWLDWD · 10 scored, 9 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Toluca | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Oct | at Tigres UANL | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Club America | 3–5 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Puebla | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Sep | vs FC Juarez | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Sep | at Club Queretaro | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: WDDLD
Season stats
| Cruz Azul | Leon | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.29 | Goals scored per game | 1.50 |
| 1.64 | Goals conceded per game | 1.29 |
| 2.43 | Scored per game at home | 1.86 |
| 2.14 | Scored per game away | 1.14 |
| 79% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 36% |
| 71% | Both teams scored | 64% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 29% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 7% |
League matches only, 14 games each.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 13 | +15 | 27 | LWWDW |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 14 | +9 | 26 | WWWDD |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | +9 | 26 | WWDDL |
| 4 | Atlas | 14 | -1 | 24 | WLWDW |
| 5 | Toluca | 14 | +10 | 23 | DDDLD |
| 6 | Leon | 14 | +3 | 22 | DWLDW |
| 7 | Monterrey | 13 | +5 | 20 | LWWDL |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 13 | +4 | 20 | WDDDL |
| 9 | Club Queretaro | 13 | -1 | 20 | LLLWW |
Match context
- Travel for Leon
- 326 km
- Rest days
- Cruz Azul 7Leon 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Cruz Azul 2 · Leon 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 24°C · wind 12 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- Joel Huiqui
- Cruz Azul, since Oct 2026
- J. Gandolfi
- Leon, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Liga MX average: 3.01 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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