Pachuca vs Tigres UANL prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Pachuca to win: 43%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 54% · bookies 54%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three see a close game with Pachuca favoured but far from safe, and the sceptic's doubts about the home lean and the goal line temper the coach's goals case. A one-goal margin either way or a draw looks the likeliest shape, with the over 2.5 line finely balanced around even money.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo leaky defences and a high-scoring venue point to goals
Tigres score just 0.75 away per game, but the venue averages 3.01 goals per match this season. Expect chances at both ends.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTwo struggling sides, but Pachuca's home edge and fresher legs matter
Pachuca sit 13th on 16 points, one clear of 15th-placed Tigres on 15, so both need results. A tight, tense affair looks likely.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongTigres' away record argues the home lean is too strong
Pachuca's home form is L D D D L. The 43% home price looks a touch high; the 54% over 2.5 also feels generous given Tigres go over 2.5 just 36% of the time.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Pachuca are slight favourites at 43%, with Tigres UANL on 30% and the draw on 27%. Pachuca are 13th and Tigres UANL 15th in Liga MX. In their last five league games, Pachuca won one and Tigres UANL two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Pachuca win or draw
- 70%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Tigres UANL win or draw
- 57%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 54%
- 4+ goals
- 32%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 57%
- No
- 43%
We expect about 1.6 goals from Pachuca and 1.3 from Tigres UANL. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (9%), 1–2 (7%), 0–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% | 27% | 30% | Stats preview | #2149 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Pachuca: last 6
WLLDLD · 9 scored, 11 conceded
| 26 Oct | at Club America | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Oct | vs Cruz Azul | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Oct | at Monterrey | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Necaxa | 3–3 | D |
| 27 Sep | at Santos Laguna | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Sep | vs Club Tijuana | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 at home: LDDDL
Tigres UANL: last 6
DLDWWL · 6 scored, 8 conceded
| 25 Oct | at U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Oct | vs Leon | 0–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Guadalajara Chivas | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Toluca | 3–2 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs Puebla | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at FC Juarez | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 away: DDLDD
Season stats
| Pachuca | Tigres UANL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.57 | Goals scored per game | 1.07 |
| 1.36 | Goals conceded per game | 1.36 |
| 1.67 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 0.75 |
| 64% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 36% |
| 64% | Both teams scored | 57% |
| 21% | Clean sheets | 29% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 29% |
League matches only, 14 games each.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Santos Laguna | 14 | +0 | 19 | LWWWW |
| 11 | Atletico San Luis | 14 | -3 | 19 | WWDLW |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 14 | -3 | 17 | DLWDL |
| 13 | Pachuca | 14 | +3 | 16 | WLLDL |
| 14 | Puebla | 14 | -5 | 16 | LLDDL |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 14 | -4 | 15 | DLDWW |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 14 | -6 | 14 | LWLLW |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | -11 | 10 | DLLDL |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 14 | -24 | 5 | DLLDL |
Match context
- Rest days
- Pachuca 5Tigres UANL 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Pachuca 3 · Tigres UANL 3
- Coaches
- B. Mora
- Pachuca, since Oct 2026
- M. Vucetich
- Tigres UANL, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Liga MX average: 3.01 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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