Salford City vs Crawley Town prediction
League Two · Matchday 11 · The Peninsula Stadium, Salford, Greater Manchester
Who wins? (1X2)
Bookmakers agree to within a point on all three outcomes. (Odds with their margin removed.)
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In short
League leaders Salford City host bottom-placed Crawley Town with a clear gap in form and points. Salford are unbeaten in five league games, while Crawley have one win all season but showed some life in a draw with Chesterfield. Crawley are without Akin Odimayo, though three players are back from injury.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Salford City win or draw
- 87%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 82%
- Crawley Town win or draw
- 30%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 85%
- 3+ goals
- 65%
- 4+ goals
- 43%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 57%
- No
- 43%
We expect about 2.4 goals from Salford City and 1.0 from Crawley Town. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 2–0 (10%), 1–1 (8%), 1–0 (8%), 3–1 (8%).
Lineups Expected
Goalkeeper
- Norris
Defenders
- Aimson
- Oluwo
- Allen
Midfielders
- Molyneux
- Powell
- Sarpong-Wiredu
- Odoh
- Cesay
Forward
- Langstaff
Others
- N'Mai
No reliable expected lineup yet.
Expected from team news sources; “?” = sources disagree. Confirmed lineups with shirt numbers replace this about an hour before kick-off.
Injuries and suspensions
Key facts
- Salford City sit 1st in League Two with 19 points from 10 games.[3][4][5][7]
- Crawley Town are 24th with 5 points from 8 games.[3][7]
- Salford have won four and drawn one of their last five league matches, most recently beating Cheltenham 2-0 away on 10 Oct.[4][5]
- Salford are strong at home this season with four wins and one defeat in five league games.[3][4][5][7]
- Crawley have won once away in the league this season and are still without a home league win.[3][7]
- Salford most often use a 5-3-2 shape, and their last starting XI differed from their most-used line-up, suggesting possible rotation.[4]
- Salford travel to Bristol Rovers on 20 Oct, three days after this match.[5]
Still unclear
- Whether Crawley's recently returned players (Duke-McKenna, Jennings, Mannone) start
- Salford XI not yet confirmed; last match XI included Scarr, Bonds, Grant, Graydon rather than most-used XI
Sources
- sportsmole.co.uk – Salford City vs Crawley Town - League Two - October 17, 2026 ... (2026-10-17)
- leaguespy.com – Crawley Town vs Salford City Preview: Injuries and Suspension ... (2026-10-17)
- crawleytownnews.co.uk – Crawley Town News, Fixtures & England League Two Table (2026-10-17)
- starting11.com – Salford City lineup today vs Crawley Town: Starting 11 (2026-10-17)
- gladiatorfootball.co.uk – Salford City FC Latest News Headlines on Gladiator Football (2026-10-17)
- salfordcityfcfoundation.org – Latest News - Salford City FC Foundation (2026-10-17)
- bbc.co.uk – Crawley Town Tables and Standings - Football - BBC Sport (2026-10-17)
Off the pitch
- Crawley manager Colin Kazim-Richards has spoken about the club's difficult start and his long-term vision, with pressure implied by the bottom position and relegation projections.[3]
Match context
- Stadium
- The Peninsula Stadium, Salford, Greater Manchester
- 5,100 seats · grass
- Travel for Crawley Town
- 300 km
- Rest days
- Salford City 7Crawley Town 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Salford City 2 · Crawley Town 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 13°C · wind 14 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- K. Robinson
- Salford City, 3 years in charge
- D. Drummy
- Crawley Town, 10 years in charge
- Goals in this league
- League Two average: 2.48 per match
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Salford City: last 6
WDWWLW · 10 scored, 4 conceded
| 10 Oct | at Cheltenham | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Oct | at Accrington ST EFL Trophy | 1–1 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Fleetwood Town | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | at Oldham | 4–1 | W |
| 22 Sep | vs Sheffield Wednesday EFL Trophy | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Swindon Town | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WLWWW
Crawley Town: last 6
DWLLLL · 10 scored, 14 conceded
| 10 Oct | vs Chesterfield | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Oct | vs Bromley EFL Trophy | 4–0 | W |
| 22 Sep | at Milton Keynes Dons EFL Trophy | 1–4 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Grimsby | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Cheltenham | 1–3 | L |
| 5 Sep | at Accrington ST | 2–3 | L |
Last 5 away: LLLDW
Season stats
| Salford City | Crawley Town | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.90 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 0.80 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game away | 1.30 |
| 40% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 40% | Both teams scored | 62% |
| 40% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 20% | Failed to score | 38% |
| 1.70 | Yellow cards per game | 3.00 |
League matches only, 10 and 8 games.
When goals come
| Minutes | Salford City | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League Two table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 10 | +5 | 19 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Barnet | 8 | +9 | 18 | WWWDD |
| 3 | Crewe | 10 | +5 | 18 | WWDDD |
| 4 | Gillingham | 10 | +5 | 16 | WDLWW |
| … | |||||
| 21 | Oldham | 9 | -4 | 8 | DLLLL |
| 22 | Port Vale | 8 | -5 | 8 | WLWLL |
| 23 | Northampton | 8 | -3 | 7 | DLLWD |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 8 | -7 | 5 | DLLLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Salford City won 2, Crawley Town 1, 3 draws; 3.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 May 2026 | Crawley Town | 0–0 | Salford City | League Two |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Salford City | 4–3 | Crawley Town | League Two |
| 13 Jan 2024 | Crawley Town | 0–1 | Salford City | League Two |
| 12 Aug 2023 | Salford City | 1–1 | Crawley Town | League Two |
| 28 Jan 2023 | Crawley Town | 3–2 | Salford City | League Two |
| 3 Sep 2022 | Salford City | 2–2 | Crawley Town | League Two |
Published 17 Oct 2026, 08:44 UTC · Updated 17 Oct 2026, 09:31 UTC
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 4+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 69% | 18% | 13% | 42% |
| Goals model | 64% | 22% | 14% | 33% |
| AI experts | 66% | 20% | 14% | 36% |
| Our forecast | 70% | 18% | 13% | 43% |
- Squad & availability: Salford have a fully available squad while Crawley lose a key defender in Odimayo, and the returning trio's fitness is uncertain, which supports a home lean. Crawley's recent Chesterfield draw and returning bodies keep the away chance from being discounted further.
- Form, tactics & morale: The table and form gap is large, but Crawley's recent improvement and returning players argue for a slightly less one-sided read. Salford's controlled 5-3-2 style and possible rotation ahead of the Bristol Rovers trip temper expectations of a high-scoring game.
- Market sceptic: The fundamentals broadly match the market: top versus bottom with Salford unbeaten in five. A small shade from home towards draw/away reflects Crawley's recent uptick and Salford's rotation uncertainty, while the over 3.5 looks rich given both sides' modest scoring profiles.
Verdict: Our probabilities stay close to the market because the table gap and Salford's home form clearly favour the hosts, while Crawley's recent draw and returning players justify only a marginal shift towards the draw and away win.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published (UK time) | Home | Draw | Away | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 Oct 09:44 | 70% | 18% | 13% | First analysis |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger.
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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