Colchester United vs Exeter City prediction
League Two · Matchday 11 · JobServe Community Stadium, Colchester, Essex
Who wins? (1X2)
Bookmakers agree to within a point on all three outcomes. (Odds with their margin removed.)
Fans · 0 votes
Fans’ picks appear after 5 votes. Voting closes at kick-off. Fans’ opinion, not a scientific poll.
In short
Colchester are unbeaten at home in the league this season but sit 19th, while Exeter arrive on back-to-back 1-0 wins yet have a poor away record. Neither side reports any absences. The market and our model broadly agree, with a slight lean toward the home side.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Colchester United win or draw
- 72%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Exeter City win or draw
- 56%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 73%
- 3+ goals
- 47%
- 4+ goals
- 26%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 52%
- No
- 48%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Colchester United and 1.2 from Exeter City. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–0 (10%), 0–1 (10%), 2–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%).
Lineups Expected
No reliable expected lineup yet. Confirmed lineups usually arrive about an hour before kick-off.
Injuries and suspensions
No confirmed absences reported.
Key facts
- Colchester sit 19th in League Two with 10 points from 9 games, while Exeter are 14th with 12 points from 10.[1][2]
- Colchester are unbeaten at home in the league this season, with two wins and two draws.[1]
- Exeter have won only one of their last ten away league games.[2]
- Exeter have taken back-to-back 1-0 league wins over Rotherham and Shrewsbury, their first consecutive league wins since January.[1]
- Colchester lost 1-0 at Newport County in their most recent match.[1][3]
- Danny and Nicky Cowley manage Colchester, while Matt Taylor leads Exeter after returning to the club in March.[1][2]
- Exeter captain Jack Fitzwater is the club's top league scorer this season.[1]
Still unclear
- No injury/suspension or lineup information available in sources for either team
Sources
- cu-fc.com – MATCH PREVIEW: U'S HOST EXETER CITY - Colchester United FC (2026-10-17)
- sportsgambler.com – Colchester vs Exeter Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds ... (2026-10-17)
- footballpark.com – Colchester vs Exeter City: Lineups, Predictions & Betting ... (2026-10-17)
Match context
- Stadium
- JobServe Community Stadium, Colchester, Essex
- 10,083 seats · grass
- Travel for Exeter City
- 334 km
- Rest days
- Colchester United 7Exeter City 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Colchester United 1 · Exeter City 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 13°C · wind 16 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- D. Cowley
- Colchester United, 3 years in charge
- G. Caldwell
- Exeter City, 4 years in charge
- Goals in this league
- League Two average: 2.48 per match
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Colchester United: last 6
LDDLDD · 6 scored, 9 conceded
| 10 Oct | at Newport County | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs Luton EFL Trophy | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | at Shrewsbury | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Sep | at Peterborough EFL Trophy | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Cheltenham | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Crewe | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: DDDWW
Exeter City: last 6
WDWLDD · 6 scored, 5 conceded
| 10 Oct | at Shrewsbury | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Oct | vs Oxford United EFL Trophy | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Rotherham | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | at Bristol Rovers | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Sep | at Cheltenham EFL Trophy | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Tranmere | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 away: WLDLL
Season stats
| Colchester United | Exeter City | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.10 | Goals scored per game | 0.60 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded per game | 0.60 |
| 1.30 | Scored per game at home | 0.80 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 0.40 |
| 44% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 10% |
| 67% | Both teams scored | 20% |
| 11% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 22% | Failed to score | 50% |
| 1.11 | Yellow cards per game | 1.70 |
League matches only, 9 and 10 games.
When goals come
| Minutes | Colchester United | Exeter City |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League Two table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grimsby | 10 | +2 | 13 | LLLWW |
| 12 | Newport County | 10 | +1 | 13 | WDWDD |
| 13 | Tranmere | 10 | +0 | 12 | DLDDL |
| 14 | Exeter City | 10 | +0 | 12 | WWLDL |
| 15 | Accrington ST | 10 | -1 | 11 | DWDDL |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | -1 | 11 | DLLLD |
| 17 | Swindon Town | 10 | -5 | 11 | LLDLL |
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 10 | -6 | 11 | LWDDW |
| 19 | Colchester United | 9 | -3 | 10 | LDDDL |
| 20 | Rotherham | 10 | -4 | 10 | LLDWD |
| 21 | Oldham | 9 | -4 | 8 | DLLLL |
| 22 | Port Vale | 8 | -5 | 8 | WLWLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Colchester United won 2, Exeter City 4, 0 draws; 3.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Apr 2022 | Exeter City | 2–0 | Colchester United | League Two |
| 23 Nov 2021 | Colchester United | 3–1 | Exeter City | League Two |
| 23 Feb 2021 | Colchester United | 1–2 | Exeter City | League Two |
| 24 Nov 2020 | Exeter City | 6–1 | Colchester United | League Two |
| 22 Jun 2020 | Exeter City | 3–1 | Colchester United | League Two |
| 18 Jun 2020 | Colchester United | 1–0 | Exeter City | League Two |
Published 17 Oct 2026, 08:08 UTC · Updated 17 Oct 2026, 09:31 UTC
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 44% | 27% | 29% | 47% |
| Goals model | 34% | 36% | 30% | 24% |
| AI experts | 38% | 33% | 29% | 29% |
| Our forecast | 44% | 27% | 28% | 47% |
- Squad & availability: No absences, doubts or returning players are reported for either side, so availability offers no edge over the model. Form is mixed: Colchester are unbeaten at home while Exeter arrive on two straight wins but travel poorly.
- Form, tactics & morale: Colchester's unbeaten home league record and Exeter's poor away run justify a modest home tilt, but Exeter's momentum and the head-to-head edge keep them competitive. Both teams' low-scoring profiles point to a tight, low-goal match.
- Market sceptic: The model sees the game tighter than the market, so a small nudge toward the draw and away is warranted, but Colchester's home record keeps them favourite. The over price looks rich given both sides' defensive lean.
Verdict: Our probabilities stay close to the market because the strongest signals pull in opposite directions: Colchester's unbeaten home record against Exeter's away weakness, offset by Exeter's back-to-back wins and the historical head-to-head edge.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published (UK time) | Home | Draw | Away | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 Oct 09:08 | 44% | 27% | 28% | First analysis |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger.
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
