Swindon Town vs Walsall prediction
League Two · Matchday 11 · The County Ground, Swindon, Wiltshire
Who wins? (1X2)
Bookmakers agree to within two points on all three outcomes. (Odds with their margin removed.)
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In short
Swindon host Walsall at the Nigel Eady County Ground amid a severe injury crisis, with around 12-13 players out and a winless run of five league games. Walsall arrive unbeaten in League Two, sitting 6th, but have drawn six of nine and score sparingly. Availability and form point toward the visitors, though their draw-heavy profile tempers the away edge.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Swindon Town win or draw
- 60%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Walsall win or draw
- 66%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 55%
- 4+ goals
- 32%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 56%
- No
- 44%
We expect about 1.1 goals from Swindon Town and 1.7 from Walsall. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 0–1 (10%), 1–2 (10%), 0–2 (8%), 1–0 (7%).
Lineups Expected
Goalkeeper
- Ripley
Defenders
- Negru
- Clark
- Kirkman
- Majekodunmi
- Butler
Midfielders
- Munda
- Clarke
- Thomson
Forwards
- Drinan
- Nichols
No reliable expected lineup yet.
Expected from team news sources; “?” = sources disagree. Confirmed lineups with shirt numbers replace this about an hour before kick-off.
Injuries and suspensions
| Player | Team | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Dixon | Walsall | Out | [2] |
| Anthony Evans | Walsall | Out | [2] |
| Alex Pattison | Walsall | Out | [2] |
| Harry Williams | Walsall | Out | [2] |
| Harry Smith | Swindon Town | Out | [1] |
| Ollie Palmer | Swindon Town | Out | [1] |
| Paul Glatzel | Swindon Town | Out | [2] |
| Fletcher Holman | Swindon Town | Out | [2] |
| Ben Middlemas | Swindon Town | Out | [2] |
| Joel McGregor | Swindon Town | Out | [3] |
| Danny Butterworth | Swindon Town | Doubt | [1] |
Key facts
- Swindon Town sit 17th in League Two with 11 points from 10 games, while Walsall are 6th with 15 points from 9.[2][3]
- Swindon are winless in their last five league games, scoring just one goal in that run, with their last win coming on 5 September against Colchester.[1][2][5]
- Walsall are unbeaten in League Two this season with three wins and six draws from nine games.[1][2][3]
- Walsall have conceded only six goals in nine league games but have scored just 12, among the fewest in the top half.[1][2][3]
- Swindon have an extensive injury list of around 12-13 players, including several attacking options, and Holloway says his likely XI may not have played together before.[1][2]
- Walsall are without four long-term injured players, all of whom have been absent during their unbeaten league run.[2]
- Danny Butterworth is doubtful for Swindon after coming out of Tuesday's training with a hamstring issue and no scan yet.[1]
- Walsall manager Lee Grant expects an energetic and aggressive Swindon side despite their slump.[2]
Still unclear
- Whether Danny Butterworth passes fitness (hamstring)
- Exact scale of Swindon's absentee list (12 vs 13+ injured)
- Whether Holloway switches to a counter-attacking setup/front two
Sources
- wiltsglosstandard.co.uk – Ian Holloway's every word: Swindon Town v Walsall (2026-10-17)
- gazetteandherald.co.uk – Walsall without four players with injury for Swindon Town (2026-10-17)
- swindontownnews.co.uk – Swindon Town News, Fixtures & England League Two Table (2026-10-17)
- leaguespy.com – Swindon Town vs Walsall Preview: Injuries and Suspension ... (2026-10-17)
- starting11.com – Swindon Town Starting 11 - Predicted Lineup Today & Squad ... (2026-10-17)
- bescotbanter.net – Jaden Kandemiri Makes Walsall Debut in EFL Trophy Triumph (2026-10-17)
- gazettelive.co.uk – Walsall man arrested over 'incident involving footage' at ... (2026-10-17)
Off the pitch
- Owner Clem Morfuni has publicly challenged supporters to name potential buyers amid claims about club debt and identity.[3]
- Holloway has brought back a sports psychologist to rebuild confidence and trust within the squad.[3]
- Holloway is under pressure to reverse the club's poor form and manage the injury crisis.[3]
Match context
- Stadium
- The County Ground, Swindon, Wiltshire
- 15,728 seats · grass
- Travel for Walsall
- 115 km
- Rest days
- Swindon Town 7Walsall 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Swindon Town 1 · Walsall 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 18 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- I. Holloway
- Swindon Town, 2 years in charge
- M. O'Connor
- Walsall, 8 years in charge
- Goals in this league
- League Two average: 2.48 per match
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Swindon Town: last 6
LLDLLL · 2 scored, 8 conceded
| 10 Oct | vs Crewe | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Rochdale | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs Accrington ST | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Sep | vs Newport County EFL Trophy | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Salford City | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Sep | vs Crystal Palace U21 EFL Trophy | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: LDLLW
Walsall: last 6
WDDLWD · 8 scored, 10 conceded
| 13 Oct | vs Fulham U21 EFL Trophy | 3–2 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Fleetwood Town | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | at Tranmere | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Sep | vs Stevenage EFL Trophy | 1–6 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Port Vale | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Rochdale | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 away: DDDDW
Season stats
| Swindon Town | Walsall | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.90 | Goals scored per game | 1.30 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded per game | 0.70 |
| 1.80 | Scored per game at home | 1.30 |
| 0.00 | Scored per game away | 1.40 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| 40% | Both teams scored | 44% |
| 10% | Clean sheets | 56% |
| 60% | Failed to score | 33% |
| 1.80 | Yellow cards per game | 2.22 |
League matches only, 10 and 9 games.
When goals come
| Minutes | Swindon Town | Walsall |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League Two table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Crewe | 10 | +5 | 18 | WWDDD |
| 4 | Gillingham | 10 | +5 | 16 | WDLWW |
| 5 | York | 9 | +6 | 15 | DWLWD |
| 6 | Walsall | 9 | +6 | 15 | DDWDD |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 10 | +3 | 15 | DWLWW |
| 8 | Cheltenham | 10 | +0 | 15 | LLWDW |
| 9 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | -2 | 15 | LLWLL |
| … | |||||
| 14 | Exeter City | 10 | +0 | 12 | WWLDL |
| 15 | Accrington ST | 10 | -1 | 11 | DWDDL |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | -1 | 11 | DLLLD |
| 17 | Swindon Town | 10 | -5 | 11 | LLDLL |
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 10 | -6 | 11 | LWDDW |
| 19 | Colchester | 9 | -3 | 10 | LDDDL |
| 20 | Rotherham | 10 | -4 | 10 | LLDWD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Swindon Town won 3, Walsall 3, 0 draws; 2.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Apr 2026 | Swindon Town | 2–1 | Walsall | League Two |
| 2 Aug 2025 | Walsall | 2–1 | Swindon Town | League Two |
| 1 Mar 2025 | Walsall | 0–1 | Swindon Town | League Two |
| 17 Aug 2024 | Swindon Town | 0–4 | Walsall | League Two |
| 16 Apr 2024 | Walsall | 2–1 | Swindon Town | League Two |
| 16 Sep 2023 | Swindon Town | 2–0 | Walsall | League Two |
Published 17 Oct 2026, 08:44 UTC · Updated 17 Oct 2026, 09:32 UTC
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 35% | 26% | 39% | 56% |
| Goals model | 24% | 31% | 45% | 35% |
| AI experts | 23% | 31% | 46% | 34% |
| Our forecast | 34% | 27% | 40% | 55% |
- Squad & availability: Swindon's availability picture is severe, with six attacking players out and Holloway admitting his XI likely won't have played together, while Walsall's four absentees are long-term and already reflected in their unbeaten league form. That pushes the away side's edge, though Walsall's draw-heavy record keeps the draw high.
- Form, tactics & morale: Walsall profile as a low-scoring, draw-heavy side: unbeaten in League Two with only six goals conceded in nine, but six draws and few goals. Swindon's depleted attack and Holloway's possible switch to a counter-attacking setup point to a low-scoring match.
- Market sceptic: The market's 35% home price looks generous given Swindon's winless run, one goal in five games and a makeshift attack, while Walsall's unbeaten league record and defensive strength support a modest away lean. The over 2.5 price looks high for two blunt attacks.
Verdict: Our probabilities stay close to the market: Walsall's unbeaten, defensively solid profile and Swindon's injury crisis justify a small tilt toward the away side, but Walsall's heavy draw tendency and the uncertainty around Swindon's makeshift XI limit how far we push it.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published (UK time) | Home | Draw | Away | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 Oct 09:44 | 34% | 27% | 40% | First analysis |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger.
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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