Grimsby Town vs Northampton Town prediction
League Two · Matchday 11 · Blundell Park, Cleethorpes, North East Lincolnshire
Who wins? (1X2)
Bookmakers agree to within a point on all three outcomes. (Odds with their margin removed.)
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In short
Grimsby Town host Northampton Town at Blundell Park with both sides in poor recent form. Grimsby sit 11th with 13 points from 10 games but have lost their last three league matches, while Northampton are 23rd with 7 points from 8. Our probabilities stay close to the market, with a small lean toward the draw.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Grimsby Town win or draw
- 78%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Northampton Town win or draw
- 46%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 76%
- 3+ goals
- 52%
- 4+ goals
- 30%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 52%
- No
- 48%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Grimsby Town and 1.0 from Northampton Town. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (11%), 2–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 0–0 (6%).
Lineups Expected
Goalkeeper
- Pym
Defenders
- Rodgers
- McJannet
- Sweeney
- Kacurri
Midfielders
- Green
- Vernam
- Turi
- Amaluzor
Forwards
- Cook
- Finch
No reliable expected lineup yet.
Expected from team news sources; “?” = sources disagree. Confirmed lineups with shirt numbers replace this about an hour before kick-off.
Injuries and suspensions
Key facts
- Grimsby are 11th in League Two with 13 points from 10 games, and their home record this season is three wins, one draw and one defeat.[4][5]
- Northampton are 23rd with 7 points from 8 games and are still without an away league win this season (two draws, two defeats).[5]
- Grimsby have lost their last three league matches, conceding twice in each of the last two, with their most recent result a 0-1 defeat at Port Vale on 10 October.[4][5]
- Northampton drew 1-1 at York on 10 October in their most recent match and have drawn three of their last five league games.[5]
- Grimsby most often line up in a 4-1-4-1 formation under coach D. Artell, with Andy Cook the leading forward starter.[4]
- One preview source appears to be from an earlier season, naming a different manager and squad, so its team news and form claims should be treated with caution.[1][4]
- Northampton are now debt-free after new majority owners took over and a land sale cleared around £20m of debt.[7][8]
Still unclear
- Which era's team news applies: names Jolley/Welsh/Whitehouse (older season) while shows Artell as current coach - injury info from may be outdated
- Northampton's true form: says four-game winning run, table shows them 23rd with 7 pts from 8 games
- No confirmed lineups yet; predicted XI for Grimsby is only the most-used XI
Sources
- grimsbytelegraph.co.uk – Grimsby Town injury news and team selector ahead of the ... (2026-10-17)
- grimsbytownnews.co.uk – Grimsby News, Fixtures & England League Two Table (2026-10-17)
- newsnow.co.uk – Grimsby Town News | Latest GTFC Updates - NewsNow (2026-10-17)
- starting11.com – Grimsby Starting 11 - Predicted Lineup Today & Squad Selector (2026-10-17)
- gladiatorfootball.co.uk – Grimsby Town FC Latest News Headlines on Gladiator Football (2026-10-17)
- gtfc.co.uk – Danny North back at Blundell Park as Returning Mariner (2026-10-17)
- bbc.com – Northampton Town land used to clear club's £20m debt - BBC (2026-10-17)
- bbc.co.uk – Northampton Town land used to clear club's £20m debt - BBC News (2026-10-17)
Off the pitch
Match context
- Stadium
- Blundell Park, Cleethorpes, North East Lincolnshire
- 9,546 seats
- Travel for Northampton Town
- 155 km
- Rest days
- Grimsby Town 7Northampton Town 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Grimsby Town 2 · Northampton Town 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 21 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- D. Artell
- Grimsby Town, 3 years in charge
- D. Austin
- Northampton Town, 9 years in charge
- Goals in this league
- League Two average: 2.48 per match
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Grimsby Town: last 6
LDLLLW · 5 scored, 7 conceded
| 10 Oct | at Port Vale | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Oct | vs Burton Albion EFL Trophy | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Shrewsbury | 1–2 | L |
| 26 Sep | at Newport County | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Sep | at Notts County EFL Trophy | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Crawley Town | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: DLWWD
Northampton Town: last 6
DLLLWD · 4 scored, 7 conceded
| 10 Oct | at York | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Oct | at Cambridge United EFL Trophy | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Rotherham | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | at Shrewsbury | 0–2 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Newport County | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Sep | vs Crawley Town | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: DLLDL
Season stats
| Grimsby Town | Northampton Town | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30 | Goals scored per game | 0.50 |
| 1.10 | Goals conceded per game | 0.90 |
| 1.60 | Scored per game at home | 0.50 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 0.50 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 0% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 38% |
| 40% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 20% | Failed to score | 50% |
| 1.40 | Yellow cards per game | 1.50 |
League matches only, 10 and 8 games.
When goals come
| Minutes | Grimsby Town | Northampton Town |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League Two table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Cheltenham | 10 | +0 | 15 | LLWDW |
| 9 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | -2 | 15 | LLWLL |
| 10 | Rochdale | 10 | -1 | 14 | DWWWD |
| 11 | Grimsby Town | 10 | +2 | 13 | LLLWW |
| 12 | Newport County | 10 | +1 | 13 | WDWDD |
| 13 | Tranmere | 10 | +0 | 12 | DLDDL |
| 14 | Exeter City | 10 | +0 | 12 | WWLDL |
| … | |||||
| 20 | Rotherham | 10 | -4 | 10 | LLDWD |
| 21 | Oldham | 9 | -4 | 8 | DLLLL |
| 22 | Port Vale | 8 | -5 | 8 | WLWLL |
| 23 | Northampton Town | 8 | -3 | 7 | DLLWD |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 8 | -7 | 5 | DLLLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Grimsby Town won 1, Northampton Town 2, 3 draws; 2.3 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Feb 2023 | Northampton Town | 1–2 | Grimsby Town | League Two |
| 6 Aug 2022 | Grimsby Town | 1–1 | Northampton Town | League Two |
| 29 Feb 2020 | Grimsby Town | 0–3 | Northampton Town | League Two |
| 23 Nov 2019 | Northampton Town | 2–0 | Grimsby Town | League Two |
| 16 Mar 2019 | Grimsby Town | 0–0 | Northampton Town | League Two |
| 24 Nov 2018 | Northampton Town | 2–2 | Grimsby Town | League Two |
Published 17 Oct 2026, 08:44 UTC · Updated 17 Oct 2026, 09:33 UTC
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 54% | 24% | 21% | 51% |
| Goals model | 47% | 33% | 20% | 29% |
| AI experts | 46% | 31% | 22% | 35% |
| Our forecast | 54% | 25% | 22% | 52% |
- Squad & availability: Grimsby are reported without Welsh and Whitehouse while Northampton report no absences, which gives the away side a small availability edge the model cannot see. With both teams in poor form and low expected goals, the expert stays close to the statistical model rather than deviating aggressively.
- Form, tactics & morale: Grimsby's recent scoring output has been weak during their losing run, so the expert trims the home win chance slightly and shifts weight to the draw. Both sides struggle to score, keeping the total low.
- Market sceptic: Starting from the market, the expert trims Grimsby slightly for their losing run and sides with the low-scoring model estimate on the total, well below the market's over 2.5 price. Confidence is medium because the sources mix different seasons.
Verdict: Our probabilities stay close to the market because the underlying data quality is low, with sources mixing at least two different seasons. The main adjustment is a small shift from home win to draw, reflecting Grimsby's three-match losing run and limited recent scoring against a Northampton side that has stabilised somewhat.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published (UK time) | Home | Draw | Away | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 Oct 09:44 | 54% | 25% | 22% | First analysis |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger.
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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