Crewe Alexandra vs Rochdale prediction
League Two · Matchday 11 · Mornflake Stadium, Crewe, Cheshire
Who wins? (1X2)
Bookmakers agree to within a point on all three outcomes. (Odds with their margin removed.)
Fans · 0 votes
Fans’ picks appear after 5 votes. Voting closes at kick-off. Fans’ opinion, not a scientific poll.
In short
Crewe Alexandra, unbeaten in League Two and third with 18 points, host a Rochdale side 10th on 14 points. Crewe have drawn six of ten league games, while Rochdale are unbeaten in their last three away matches. No injury or team news is available for either side.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Crewe Alexandra win or draw
- 77%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Rochdale win or draw
- 50%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 75%
- 3+ goals
- 50%
- 4+ goals
- 28%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 51%
- No
- 49%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Crewe Alexandra and 1.0 from Rochdale. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (11%), 2–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 0–0 (7%).
Lineups Expected
No reliable expected lineup yet. Confirmed lineups usually arrive about an hour before kick-off.
Injuries and suspensions
No confirmed absences reported.
Key facts
- Crewe are third with 18 points from 10 games and are unbeaten in the league this season (W4 D6 L0).[2][3]
- Rochdale sit 10th with 14 points from 10 games (W4 D2 L4).[2][3][5]
- Crewe won their last two league games, including 1-0 at Swindon Town on 10 October.[2][4]
- Rochdale lost 5-0 at Huddersfield on 6 October, then drew 1-1 at Tranmere on 10 October.[3][5]
- Rochdale are unbeaten in their last three away games.[3][5]
- Jordan Gibson has scored three goals in his last three games for Crewe and leads their scorers with three alongside Josh March.[2][4]
- No injury, suspension or lineup information is reported for either team.[2][3]
Still unclear
- No team news, injury or lineup information available for either side in the sources
- Whether Rochdale made defensive changes after the 5-0 loss at Huddersfield is not reported
Sources
- sportsmole.co.uk – Crewe Alexandra vs Rochdale - League Two - October 17, 2026 ... (2026-10-17)
- sportsgambler.com – Crewe vs Rochdale Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds ... (2026-10-17)
- ligatoday.com – Crewe Alexandra v Rochdale: prediction and kick-off time (17 ... (2026-10-17)
- crewe.localgazette.co.uk – Sport News in Crewe Today (2026-10-17)
- gladiatorfootball.co.uk – Rochdale AFC Latest News Headlines on Gladiator Football (2026-10-17)
- rochdaledaily.co.uk – Rochdale Football Club to Face Rotherham United in League Two ... (2026-10-17)
Off the pitch
Match context
- Stadium
- Mornflake Stadium, Crewe, Cheshire
- 10,153 seats · grass
- Travel for Rochdale
- 60 km
- Rest days
- Crewe Alexandra 7Rochdale 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Crewe Alexandra 2 · Rochdale 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 13°C · wind 12 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- L. Bell
- Crewe Alexandra, 4 years in charge
- J. McNulty
- Rochdale, 4 years in charge
- Goals in this league
- League Two average: 2.48 per match
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Crewe Alexandra: last 6
WDWDWD · 12 scored, 6 conceded
| 10 Oct | at Swindon Town | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Oct | at Blackpool EFL Trophy | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Bristol Rovers | 3–1 | W |
| 26 Sep | at Rotherham | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Sep | vs Aston Villa U21 EFL Trophy | 4–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Shrewsbury | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: WWDDD
Rochdale: last 6
DLWWDW · 9 scored, 10 conceded
| 10 Oct | at Tranmere | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Oct | at Huddersfield EFL Trophy | 0–5 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs Swindon Town | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | at Fleetwood Town | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Sep | vs Liverpool U21 EFL Trophy | 3–3 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Oldham | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 away: DLWDL
Season stats
| Crewe Alexandra | Rochdale | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored per game | 1.10 |
| 0.70 | Goals conceded per game | 1.20 |
| 1.60 | Scored per game at home | 1.60 |
| 0.80 | Scored per game away | 0.60 |
| 20% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 60% | Both teams scored | 40% |
| 40% | Clean sheets | 40% |
| 10% | Failed to score | 30% |
| 1.80 | Yellow cards per game | 1.90 |
League matches only, 10 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Crewe Alexandra | Rochdale |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League Two table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 10 | +5 | 19 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Barnet | 8 | +9 | 18 | WWWDD |
| 3 | Crewe Alexandra | 10 | +5 | 18 | WWDDD |
| 4 | Gillingham | 10 | +5 | 16 | WDLWW |
| 5 | York | 9 | +6 | 15 | DWLWD |
| 6 | Walsall | 9 | +6 | 15 | DDWDD |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 10 | +3 | 15 | DWLWW |
| 8 | Cheltenham | 10 | +0 | 15 | LLWDW |
| 9 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | -2 | 15 | LLWLL |
| 10 | Rochdale | 10 | -1 | 14 | DWWWD |
| 11 | Grimsby | 10 | +2 | 13 | LLLWW |
| 12 | Newport County | 10 | +1 | 13 | WDWDD |
| 13 | Tranmere | 10 | +0 | 12 | DLDDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Crewe Alexandra won 2, Rochdale 0, 4 draws; 3.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Feb 2023 | Crewe Alexandra | 1–1 | Rochdale | League Two |
| 30 Jul 2022 | Rochdale | 1–2 | Crewe Alexandra | League Two |
| 24 Apr 2021 | Crewe Alexandra | 1–1 | Rochdale | League One |
| 9 Jan 2021 | Rochdale | 3–3 | Crewe Alexandra | League One |
| 16 Feb 2016 | Rochdale | 2–2 | Crewe Alexandra | League One |
| 6 Feb 2016 | Crewe Alexandra | 2–0 | Rochdale | League One |
Published 17 Oct 2026, 08:44 UTC · Updated 17 Oct 2026, 09:31 UTC
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 50% | 26% | 24% | 50% |
| Goals model | 50% | 30% | 20% | 35% |
| AI experts | 50% | 29% | 21% | 40% |
| Our forecast | 50% | 26% | 23% | 50% |
- Squad & availability: No availability issues are reported for either side, so squad news gives no reason to move from the model. Crewe's draw-heavy profile (six draws in ten) and the drawn H2H pattern justify a slight lean toward the draw.
- Form, tactics & morale: Crewe's unbeaten league start, home solidity and Gibson's scoring form support a small edge to the home side, while Rochdale's 5-0 collapse at Huddersfield raises doubts. Both teams' recent results suggest a low-scoring match.
- Market sceptic: The market already prices Crewe's form and Rochdale's away record well, so we stay close to it, shifting a few points from away to draw given the H2H pattern. The model's low expected-goals estimate supports a lean under on totals.
Verdict: Our probabilities stay close to the market because both reflect Crewe's unbeaten home form and Rochdale's mixed away record; we shift a small amount from away to draw given Crewe's six draws in ten league games and the drawn recent head-to-heads.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published (UK time) | Home | Draw | Away | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 Oct 09:44 | 50% | 26% | 23% | First analysis |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger.
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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