Accrington Stanley vs Gillingham prediction
League Two · Matchday 11 · Wham Stadium, Accrington, Lancashire
Who wins? (1X2)
Bookmakers agree to within a point on all three outcomes. (Odds with their margin removed.)
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In short
Accrington Stanley, 15th and unbeaten at home this season, host fourth-placed Gillingham, who arrive with strong away form and recent high-scoring wins. Neither squad reports absences. Our probabilities stay close to the market, with a small lean toward Gillingham.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Accrington Stanley win or draw
- 67%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Gillingham win or draw
- 59%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 79%
- 3+ goals
- 56%
- 4+ goals
- 34%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 59%
- No
- 41%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Accrington Stanley and 1.5 from Gillingham. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 2–1 (8%), 1–0 (8%).
Lineups Expected
Defenders
- F Rawson
- D Matthews
Midfielder
- D Love
Forwards
- B Woods
- T Walton
Others
- W Crellin
- B Ward
- S Conneely (c)
- J Batty
- J O'Brien-Whitmarsh
- K Mooney
Defender
- A Smith
Midfielder
- R McKenzie
Others
- G Morris
- C Masterson
- S Gale
- R Hutton
- A Little (c)
- M Clark
- J Morgan
- J Gbode
- O Hawkins
Expected from team news sources; “?” = sources disagree. Confirmed lineups with shirt numbers replace this about an hour before kick-off.
Injuries and suspensions
No confirmed absences reported.
Key facts
- Accrington sit 15th with 11 points from 10 games; Gillingham are 4th with 16 points.[4][5]
- Accrington are unbeaten at home this season (two wins, three draws) but have not won away all season.[4][5]
- Gillingham have won both of their recent away league games heavily, including 4-1 at Rotherham on 10 October.[5][8]
- Accrington have drawn five of their ten league games and their recent matches have been low-scoring.[4][5]
- Gillingham's manager Gareth Ainsworth and James Brophy earned monthly award nominations after a strong September.[8]
- Gillingham are targeting a third straight win after their 4-1 win at Rotherham.[8]
- Accrington's goalkeeping coach Matt Gilks left the club this week to join Wigan Athletic.[6][7]
Still unclear
- No specific injury/suspension news for either squad in the available previews; lineups from the match page are the best available source
- Whether Gillingham's momentum from two high-scoring wins carries over
Sources
- skysports.com – Accrington Stanley vs Gillingham; Sky Bet League Two (2026-10-17)
- kentonline.co.uk – Gillingham captain Armani Little went off injured against ... (2026-10-17)
- sportsmole.co.uk – Preview: Accrington Stanley vs Gillingham - prediction, team ... (2026-10-17)
- sportsgambler.com – Accrington Stanley vs Gillingham Prediction, Betting Tips ... (2026-10-17)
- footballpark.com – Accrington ST vs Gillingham: Lineups, Predictions & Betting ... (2026-10-17)
- lancashiretelegraph.co.uk – Matt Gilks leaves Accrington Stanley to join Wigan Athletic (2026-10-17)
- theboltonnews.co.uk – Matt Gilks leaves Accrington for Wigan as goalkeeping coach (2026-10-17)
- gillinghamfcnews.co.uk – Gillingham News & Latest Updates - 2026 (2026-10-17)
Off the pitch
Match context
- Stadium
- Wham Stadium, Accrington, Lancashire
- 5,397 seats · grass
- Travel for Gillingham
- 328 km
- Rest days
- Accrington Stanley 7Gillingham 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Accrington Stanley 2 · Gillingham 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 11°C · wind 13 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Charles Breakspear
- Coaches
- J. Doolan
- Accrington Stanley, 3 years in charge
- G. Ainsworth
- Gillingham, 19 months in charge
- Goals in this league
- League Two average: 2.48 per match
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Accrington Stanley: last 6
DDWDDD · 7 scored, 5 conceded
| 10 Oct | at Oldham | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Oct | vs Salford City EFL Trophy | 1–1 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Cheltenham | 2–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | at Swindon Town | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Sep | vs Sunderland U21 EFL Trophy | 3–3 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Newport County | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 at home: DWDDW
Gillingham: last 6
WWDLLW · 12 scored, 11 conceded
| 13 Oct | vs Brighton U21 EFL Trophy | 4–3 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Rotherham | 4–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs Newport County | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Sep | at York | 0–3 | L |
| 22 Sep | vs Cambridge United EFL Trophy | 1–4 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Bristol Rovers | 3–0 | W |
Last 5 away: WLWDD
Season stats
| Accrington Stanley | Gillingham | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30 | Goals scored per game | 1.50 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 1.80 | Scored per game at home | 1.20 |
| 0.80 | Scored per game away | 1.80 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 60% | Both teams scored | 40% |
| 30% | Clean sheets | 40% |
| 30% | Failed to score | 40% |
| 2.80 | Yellow cards per game | 2.60 |
League matches only, 10 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Accrington Stanley | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League Two table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 10 | +5 | 19 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Barnet | 8 | +9 | 18 | WWWDD |
| 3 | Crewe | 10 | +5 | 18 | WWDDD |
| 4 | Gillingham | 10 | +5 | 16 | WDLWW |
| 5 | York | 9 | +6 | 15 | DWLWD |
| 6 | Walsall | 9 | +6 | 15 | DDWDD |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 10 | +3 | 15 | DWLWW |
| … | |||||
| 12 | Newport County | 10 | +1 | 13 | WDWDD |
| 13 | Tranmere | 10 | +0 | 12 | DLDDL |
| 14 | Exeter City | 10 | +0 | 12 | WWLDL |
| 15 | Accrington Stanley | 10 | -1 | 11 | DWDDL |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | -1 | 11 | DLLLD |
| 17 | Swindon Town | 10 | -5 | 11 | LLDLL |
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 10 | -6 | 11 | LWDDW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Accrington Stanley won 1, Gillingham 3, 2 draws; 2.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Apr 2026 | Gillingham | 2–0 | Accrington Stanley | League Two |
| 2 Aug 2025 | Accrington Stanley | 1–1 | Gillingham | League Two |
| 15 Mar 2025 | Accrington Stanley | 1–1 | Gillingham | League Two |
| 12 Oct 2024 | Gillingham | 1–2 | Accrington Stanley | League Two |
| 13 Jan 2024 | Accrington Stanley | 1–2 | Gillingham | League Two |
| 12 Aug 2023 | Gillingham | 1–0 | Accrington Stanley | League Two |
Published 17 Oct 2026, 08:44 UTC · Updated 17 Oct 2026, 09:33 UTC
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 41% | 27% | 32% | 48% |
| Goals model | 34% | 28% | 38% | 48% |
| AI experts | 34% | 27% | 38% | 66% |
| Our forecast | 41% | 27% | 33% | 56% |
- Squad & availability: Both squads are fully available, so availability gives neither side an edge. Gillingham's stronger squad and momentum are slightly tempered by only three days' rest, while Accrington's home unbeaten run keeps them competitive.
- Form, tactics & morale: Gillingham's table position, goal difference and recent high-scoring wins justify a small lean toward the away side, offset by their short rest. Accrington's draw-heavy profile keeps the draw probability near 28%.
- Market sceptic: The model sees Gillingham slightly stronger than the market does, but the three-day rest and travel reduce that edge, so we shade only marginally toward the away side. Over 2.5 stays near the market level given Accrington's low-scoring recent games.
Verdict: Our probabilities stay close to the market because Gillingham's superior form and head-to-head record are largely offset by their three-day rest and Accrington's unbeaten home record; only a small nudge toward the away side separates us from the market.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published (UK time) | Home | Draw | Away | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 Oct 09:44 | 41% | 27% | 33% | First analysis |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger.
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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