Port Vale vs Chesterfield prediction
League Two · Matchday 11 · Vale Park, Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire
Who wins? (1X2)
Bookmakers agree to within a point on all three outcomes. (Odds with their margin removed.)
Fans · 0 votes
Fans’ picks appear after 5 votes. Voting closes at kick-off. Fans’ opinion, not a scientific poll.
In short
Chesterfield sit 7th and are favourites, though they threw away a 2-0 lead last time out and miss Liam Gordon. Our probabilities stay close to the market.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Port Vale win or draw
- 61%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Chesterfield win or draw
- 67%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 72%
- 3+ goals
- 46%
- 4+ goals
- 25%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 1.1 goals from Port Vale and 1.4 from Chesterfield. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 0–1 (12%), 1–2 (9%), 1–0 (9%), 0–2 (8%).
Lineups Expected
No reliable expected lineup yet. Confirmed lineups usually arrive about an hour before kick-off.
Injuries and suspensions
Key facts
- Port Vale are 22nd in League Two with 8 points from 8 games, but are unbeaten at home in the league this season (W2 D2 L0).[1][5][7]
- Chesterfield are 7th with 15 points from 10 games, four points behind leaders Salford.[1][5][7]
- Port Vale beat Grimsby Town 1-0 last weekend and won an EFL Trophy tie against Mansfield in midweek.[1][2][5][7]
- Chesterfield drew 2-2 at Crawley Town last time out, having led 2-0 through Lee Bonis and Louie Marsh before conceding twice in five minutes.[1][7]
- Chesterfield have taken two wins, two draws and one loss from their last five league games.[1]
- Manager Jon Brady says Chesterfield will be a 'step up' in quality, while the CEO's club update confirms Brady stays but results must improve.[2]
- Paul Cook returns to Port Vale, whom he first managed in October 2012, and has demanded more 'killer instinct' from his side.[1][7]
- Chesterfield face a congested schedule after this match, with games against Colchester, Crewe and Newport before the end of October.[7]
Still unclear
- Whether Ben Waine passes fitness test ('touch and go')
- Port Vale lineup after midweek Trophy win - rotation possible
Sources
- chesterfieldfcnews.co.uk – Chesterfield injury news for Port Vale clash as key players ... (2026-10-17)
- onevalefan.co.uk – All News - onevalefan (2026-10-17)
- sportsmole.co.uk – Preview: Chesterfield vs Port Vale - prediction, team news ... (2026-10-17)
- newsnow.co.uk – Port Vale News | Latest Valiants News - NewsNow » Latest News (2026-10-17)
- gladiatorfootball.co.uk – Port Vale FC Latest News Headlines on Gladiator Football (2026-10-17)
- derbytelegraph.co.uk – ChesterfieldLive - Latest news, sport & what's on from ... (2026-10-17)
- footballclubforums.com – Chesterfield - Football Club Forums (2026-10-17)
Off the pitch
- Port Vale's CEO has confirmed manager Jon Brady remains in position but that results need to improve, and admitted a lack of communication with supporters.[2]
- Supporters have voiced frustration at Port Vale's recent inconsistency.[4]
- Paul Cook was 'fuming' after Chesterfield's draw at Crawley and criticised the team's 'softness' after surrendering a 2-0 lead.[7]
Match context
- Stadium
- Vale Park, Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire
- 19,052 seats · grass
- Travel for Chesterfield
- 58 km
- Rest days
- Port Vale 7Chesterfield 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Port Vale 2 · Chesterfield 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 11 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Blair
- Coaches
- D. Moore
- Port Vale, 3 years in charge
- P. Cook
- Chesterfield, 5 years in charge
- Goals in this league
- League Two average: 2.48 per match
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Port Vale: last 6
WWDLWL · 5 scored, 4 conceded
| 10 Oct | vs Grimsby | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Oct | vs Mansfield Town EFL Trophy | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Sep | at Chesterfield EFL Trophy | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Walsall | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Exeter City | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | at Salford City | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: WWWDD
Chesterfield: last 6
DWLDWW · 15 scored, 10 conceded
| 10 Oct | at Crawley Town | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Tranmere | 4–2 | W |
| 26 Sep | at Cheltenham | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Sep | vs Port Vale EFL Trophy | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs York | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Sep | vs Manchester City U21 EFL Trophy | 5–3 | W |
Last 5 away: DLWLW
Season stats
| Port Vale | Chesterfield | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.50 | Goals scored per game | 1.70 |
| 1.10 | Goals conceded per game | 1.40 |
| 0.80 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 0.30 | Scored per game away | 1.40 |
| 12% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 60% |
| 25% | Both teams scored | 70% |
| 38% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 10% |
| 2.00 | Yellow cards per game | 2.00 |
League matches only, 8 and 10 games.
When goals come
| Minutes | Port Vale | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League Two table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Gillingham | 10 | +5 | 16 | WDLWW |
| 5 | York | 9 | +6 | 15 | DWLWD |
| 6 | Walsall | 9 | +6 | 15 | DDWDD |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 10 | +3 | 15 | DWLWW |
| 8 | Cheltenham | 10 | +0 | 15 | LLWDW |
| 9 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | -2 | 15 | LLWLL |
| 10 | Rochdale | 10 | -1 | 14 | DWWWD |
| … | |||||
| 19 | Colchester | 9 | -3 | 10 | LDDDL |
| 20 | Rotherham | 10 | -4 | 10 | LLDWD |
| 21 | Oldham | 9 | -4 | 8 | DLLLL |
| 22 | Port Vale | 8 | -5 | 8 | WLWLL |
| 23 | Northampton | 8 | -3 | 7 | DLLWD |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 8 | -7 | 5 | DLLLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Port Vale won 3, Chesterfield 1, 2 draws; 1.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Sep 2026 | Chesterfield | 1–1 | Port Vale | EFL Trophy |
| 25 Jan 2025 | Chesterfield | 1–1 | Port Vale | League Two |
| 14 Sep 2024 | Port Vale | 1–0 | Chesterfield | League Two |
| 31 Jul 2021 | Chesterfield | 0–1 | Port Vale | Friendlies Clubs |
| 30 Mar 2018 | Port Vale | 2–1 | Chesterfield | League Two |
| 19 Aug 2017 | Chesterfield | 2–0 | Port Vale | League Two |
Published 17 Oct 2026, 08:44 UTC · Updated 17 Oct 2026, 09:33 UTC
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 33% | 29% | 39% | 46% |
| Goals model | 27% | 30% | 42% | 40% |
| AI experts | 29% | 29% | 41% | 41% |
| Our forecast | 33% | 29% | 39% | 46% |
- Squad & availability: Availability is roughly balanced: Vale miss Croasdale and Craig, Chesterfield only Gordon with Waine 'touch and go'. Chesterfield's form and table position support an away lean, but Vale's unbeaten home league record and renewed morale temper it, so the model numbers stay nearly unchanged with a small nudge from away to draw.
- Form, tactics & morale: The model favours Chesterfield, but it cannot see Vale's two straight wins, unbeaten home record and midweek morale boost, so a few points shift from away to home and draw. A low-to-moderate scoring environment keeps over 2.5 near 40%, nudged up slightly by Chesterfield's recent attacking output.
- Market sceptic: The table gap supports a slight away lean to around 41%, but Vale's unbeaten home league record stops it going further. The over is shaded down to roughly 42% given Vale's low-scoring profile and the model's 40%.
Verdict: Our final probabilities match the market almost exactly: the table gap and Chesterfield's better form point away, but Port Vale's unbeaten home league record, two straight wins and Chesterfield's late-game softness offset that edge, leaving no reason to deviate.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published (UK time) | Home | Draw | Away | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 Oct 09:44 | 33% | 29% | 39% | First analysis |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger.
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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