Newport County vs York City prediction
League Two · Matchday 11 · Rodney Parade, Casnewydd
Who wins? (1X2)
Bookmakers agree to within a point on all three outcomes. (Odds with their margin removed.)
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In short
Newport host York at Rodney Parade with strong home form but a key attacking absence: Christian Doidge is out with a groin injury. York sit 5th and have started well after promotion, yet are winless away this season. Our probabilities stay close to the market, with a slight lean away from the visitors.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Newport County win or draw
- 52%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- York City win or draw
- 73%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 54%
- 4+ goals
- 32%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 58%
- No
- 42%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Newport County and 1.4 from York City. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%), 1–0 (8%), 0–1 (8%).
Lineups Expected
Goalkeeper
- Wright
Defenders
- Norman
- Jenkins
- Cameron
- Jacob
Midfielders
- Brennan
- Biggins
- Dibley-Dias
- Gwengwe
Forward
- Doidge
Others
- Evans
No reliable expected lineup yet.
Expected from team news sources; “?” = sources disagree. Confirmed lineups with shirt numbers replace this about an hour before kick-off.
Injuries and suspensions
Key facts
- Newport are 12th in League Two with 13 points from 10 games, and are unbeaten at home this season (W3 D2 L0).[1][4]
- York are 5th with 15 points from 9 games, but have not won away this season (W0 D2 L2).[1][7]
- Newport beat Colchester 1-0 on 10 October and are unbeaten in their last five league games (W2 D3 L0).[1][2][5]
- Christian Doidge is out for around a couple of weeks with a groin injury and is awaiting a scan; he contributed to 4 of Newport's 13 league goals.[2][4]
- Joe Thomas is back after a dead leg and Cardiff loanee Kion Etete is available again; James Crole remains sidelined but is back on the grass.[2]
- Top scorer Gwengwe has 5 league goals for Newport.[5]
- Newport sit two points off the play-offs and six clear of the bottom two.[4]
Still unclear
- No York City team news, injuries or predicted lineup in sources - unknown whether York rotate after a congested schedule
- Whether Kion Etete or Ged Garner starts in place of the injured Doidge
- Kick-off time discrepancy (15:00 vs 16:00)
Sources
- sportsmole.co.uk – Newport County vs York City - League Two - October 17, 2026 ... (2026-10-17)
- sports.yahoo.com – Newport suffer big blow as Doidge ruled out - Yahoo Sports (2026-10-17)
- starting11.com – Newport County Starting 11 - Predicted Lineup Today & Squad ... (2026-10-17)
- newportcountynews.co.uk – Newport County News, Fixtures & England League Two Table (2026-10-17)
- sportsgambler.com – Newport vs York City Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds ... (2026-10-17)
- bbc.co.uk – Newport County news: Cameron Norman loving life back at ... - BBC (2026-10-17)
- yorkpress.co.uk – York City's impressive League Two start no surprise (2026-10-17)
Off the pitch
Match context
- Stadium
- Rodney Parade, Casnewydd
- 11,676 seats · grass
- Travel for York City
- 293 km
- Rest days
- Newport County 7York City 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Newport County 2 · York City 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 14°C · wind 14 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- D. Hughes
- Newport County, 15 months in charge
- G. Mills
- York City, 10 years in charge
- Goals in this league
- League Two average: 2.48 per match
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Newport County: last 6
WDDWWD · 7 scored, 3 conceded
| 10 Oct | vs Colchester | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Oct | vs Plymouth EFL Trophy | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Oct | at Gillingham | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Grimsby | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Sep | at Swindon Town EFL Trophy | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Accrington ST | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 at home: WDWDD
York City: last 6
DWDLLW · 10 scored, 7 conceded
| 10 Oct | vs Northampton | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Gillingham | 3–0 | W |
| 22 Sep | vs Rotherham EFL Trophy | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Chesterfield | 0–2 | L |
| 15 Sep | vs Newcastle United U21 EFL Trophy | 1–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Swindon Town | 4–0 | W |
Last 5 away: LDLDL
Season stats
| Newport County | York City | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30 | Goals scored per game | 1.90 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded per game | 1.20 |
| 1.80 | Scored per game at home | 2.60 |
| 0.80 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 56% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 40% | Clean sheets | 22% |
| 30% | Failed to score | 11% |
| 1.70 | Yellow cards per game | 1.33 |
League matches only, 10 and 9 games.
When goals come
| Minutes | Newport County | York City |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League Two table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Barnet | 8 | +9 | 18 | WWWDD |
| 3 | Crewe | 10 | +5 | 18 | WWDDD |
| 4 | Gillingham | 10 | +5 | 16 | WDLWW |
| 5 | York City | 9 | +6 | 15 | DWLWD |
| 6 | Walsall | 9 | +6 | 15 | DDWDD |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 10 | +3 | 15 | DWLWW |
| 8 | Cheltenham | 10 | +0 | 15 | LLWDW |
| 9 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | -2 | 15 | LLWLL |
| 10 | Rochdale | 10 | -1 | 14 | DWWWD |
| 11 | Grimsby | 10 | +2 | 13 | LLLWW |
| 12 | Newport County | 10 | +1 | 13 | WDWDD |
| 13 | Tranmere | 10 | +0 | 12 | DLDDL |
| 14 | Exeter City | 10 | +0 | 12 | WWLDL |
| 15 | Accrington ST | 10 | -1 | 11 | DWDDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Newport County won 4, York City 2, 0 draws; 2.3 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jan 2016 | York City | 0–1 | Newport County | League Two |
| 5 Sep 2015 | Newport County | 0–3 | York City | League Two |
| 25 Apr 2015 | York City | 0–2 | Newport County | League Two |
| 11 Oct 2014 | Newport County | 3–1 | York City | League Two |
| 26 Apr 2014 | York City | 1–0 | Newport County | League Two |
| 19 Oct 2013 | Newport County | 3–0 | York City | League Two |
Published 17 Oct 2026, 08:44 UTC · Updated 17 Oct 2026, 09:31 UTC
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 27% | 25% | 48% | 55% |
| Goals model | 36% | 27% | 37% | 54% |
| AI experts | 34% | 27% | 38% | 52% |
| Our forecast | 27% | 25% | 48% | 54% |
- Squad & availability: Doidge's absence removes a player involved in 4 of Newport's 13 league goals and forces a tactical change up front, even with Thomas and Etete back. York's clean bill of health and strong start support the away lean, but their winless away run and Newport's home form cap it.
- Form, tactics & morale: Newport's unbeaten home record and high morale justify a home lift, but losing Doidge caps that adjustment; York's league position is tempered by their poor away record and a soft early schedule as a newly promoted side.
- Market sceptic: York are priced as clear favourites despite being winless away this season, while Newport are unbeaten at home; Doidge's absence prevents a full shift toward the home side, so our numbers move modestly from the market.
Verdict: Our probabilities stay close to the market because two opposing forces roughly balance: Newport's unbeaten home record and morale cut against York's favouritism, while Doidge's absence removes Newport's most productive attacker. The over 2.5 is shaded slightly down for Newport's reduced goal threat without him.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published (UK time) | Home | Draw | Away | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 Oct 09:44 | 27% | 25% | 48% | First analysis |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger.
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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