Oldham Athletic vs Cheltenham Town prediction
League Two · Matchday 11 · Boundary Park, Oldham, Greater Manchester
Who wins? (1X2)
Bookmakers agree to within a point on all three outcomes. (Odds with their margin removed.)
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Fans’ picks appear after 5 votes. Voting closes at kick-off. Fans’ opinion, not a scientific poll.
In short
Oldham sit 21st with 8 points from 9 games, while Cheltenham are 8th on 15 points from 10. Cheltenham have Joe Tomlinson out and a possible suspension for Ben Stevenson to weigh up.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Oldham Athletic win or draw
- 79%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Cheltenham Town win or draw
- 46%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 77%
- 3+ goals
- 53%
- 4+ goals
- 31%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 57%
- No
- 43%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Oldham Athletic and 1.4 from Cheltenham Town. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–0 (9%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%).
Lineups Expected
No reliable expected lineup yet. Confirmed lineups usually arrive about an hour before kick-off.
Injuries and suspensions
| Player | Team | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Tomlinson | Cheltenham Town | Out | [5] |
Key facts
- Oldham are 21st in League Two with 8 points from 9 games, and their league results include a 0-0 home draw with Accrington and a 1-4 defeat to Salford.[2]
- Cheltenham are 8th with 15 points from 10 games, with an away record of one win, two draws and two defeats.[5]
- Oldham beat Leeds United's under-21 side 4-2 in the EFL Trophy in midweek, with academy scholars among the substitutes.[2][4]
- Cheltenham came through an EFL Trophy tie on penalties after a 2-2 draw with Spurs' under-21 side, with Miller scoring a stoppage-time equaliser.[5]
- Earlier in the season Cheltenham were unbeaten in five and second in the table before defeats at Accrington and against Salford.[5]
- Whether Stevenson is suspended for Cheltenham after his red card remains unresolved, and Oldham may rotate after their midweek Trophy game.[2][4][5]
Still unclear
- Whether Ben Stevenson is suspended for Cheltenham after his red card vs Salford
- Extent of Oldham squad rotation after midweek EFL Trophy game
- Whether transfer interest affects Charlie McCann's selection/mentality
Sources
- sportsmole.co.uk – Oldham Athletic vs Cheltenham Town - League Two - October 17 ... (2026-10-17)
- oldhamathleticnews.co.uk – Oldham News, Fixtures & England League Two Table (2026-10-17)
- tntsports.co.uk – Oldham Athletic - Cheltenham Town Line-up: League Two Football (2026-10-17)
- theoldhamtimes.co.uk – Oldham Academy trio named on bench for Leeds EFL Trophy win (2026-10-17)
- cheltenhamtownnews.co.uk – Cheltenham News, Fixtures & England League Two Table (2026-10-17)
Off the pitch
- Charlie McCann is attracting Championship transfer interest after a strong start to the season, which could be a background factor for Cheltenham.[5]
Match context
- Stadium
- Boundary Park, Oldham, Greater Manchester
- 10,638 seats · grass
- Travel for Cheltenham Town
- 182 km
- Rest days
- Oldham Athletic 3Cheltenham Town 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Oldham Athletic 2 · Cheltenham Town 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 11°C · wind 15 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- M. Mellon
- Oldham Athletic, 3 years in charge
- M. Flynn
- Cheltenham Town, 2 years in charge
- Goals in this league
- League Two average: 2.48 per match
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Oldham Athletic: last 6
WDLWLL · 7 scored, 10 conceded
| 13 Oct | vs Leeds United U21 EFL Trophy | 4–2 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Accrington ST | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Salford City | 1–4 | L |
| 22 Sep | vs Fleetwood Town EFL Trophy | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Rochdale | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Chesterfield | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: WDLWL
Cheltenham Town: last 6
DLLWDD · 7 scored, 10 conceded
| 13 Oct | vs Tottenham Hotspur U21 EFL Trophy | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Salford City | 0–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Accrington ST | 0–2 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs Chesterfield | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Sep | vs Exeter City EFL Trophy | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Colchester | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: LDWDL
Season stats
| Oldham Athletic | Cheltenham Town | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.60 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded per game | 1.60 |
| 1.40 | Scored per game at home | 1.80 |
| 0.50 | Scored per game away | 1.40 |
| 44% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 70% |
| 44% | Both teams scored | 80% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 20% |
| 1.56 | Yellow cards per game | 2.70 |
League matches only, 9 and 10 games.
When goals come
| Minutes | Oldham Athletic | Cheltenham Town |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League Two table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | York | 9 | +6 | 15 | DWLWD |
| 6 | Walsall | 9 | +6 | 15 | DDWDD |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 10 | +3 | 15 | DWLWW |
| 8 | Cheltenham Town | 10 | +0 | 15 | LLWDW |
| 9 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | -2 | 15 | LLWLL |
| 10 | Rochdale | 10 | -1 | 14 | DWWWD |
| 11 | Grimsby | 10 | +2 | 13 | LLLWW |
| … | |||||
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 10 | -6 | 11 | LWDDW |
| 19 | Colchester | 9 | -3 | 10 | LDDDL |
| 20 | Rotherham | 10 | -4 | 10 | LLDWD |
| 21 | Oldham Athletic | 9 | -4 | 8 | DLLLL |
| 22 | Port Vale | 8 | -5 | 8 | WLWLL |
| 23 | Northampton | 8 | -3 | 7 | DLLWD |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 8 | -7 | 5 | DLLLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Oldham Athletic won 3, Cheltenham Town 2, 1 draw; 2.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jan 2026 | Oldham Athletic | 2–1 | Cheltenham Town | League Two |
| 20 Sep 2025 | Cheltenham Town | 0–3 | Oldham Athletic | League Two |
| 26 Jan 2021 | Cheltenham Town | 2–0 | Oldham Athletic | League Two |
| 3 Nov 2020 | Oldham Athletic | 2–1 | Cheltenham Town | League Two |
| 4 Jan 2020 | Cheltenham Town | 3–0 | Oldham Athletic | League Two |
| 5 Oct 2019 | Oldham Athletic | 1–1 | Cheltenham Town | League Two |
Published 17 Oct 2026, 08:44 UTC · Updated 17 Oct 2026, 09:31 UTC
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 55% | 24% | 21% | 53% |
| Goals model | 37% | 27% | 36% | 55% |
| AI experts | 42% | 27% | 31% | 54% |
| Our forecast | 54% | 24% | 21% | 53% |
- Squad & availability: Availability barely moves the needle, but Tomlinson's absence and the pending Stevenson suspension slightly weaken Cheltenham's midfield, while Oldham's light midweek rotation keeps their first-choice legs fresh. That supports a small nudge toward home/draw.
- Form, tactics & morale: Oldham's morale has lifted after the Accrington draw and a midweek Trophy win, but they remain 21st; Cheltenham have better form and quality, though the possible Stevenson suspension argues for a small downgrade to the away side. Both teams have been scoring and conceding, keeping over 2.5 slightly above average.
- Market sceptic: The market's 55% home probability sits well above the statistical model's 37%, likely reflecting Boundary Park advantage and Oldham's recent upturn. I shade a few points toward Cheltenham, whose 8th-place quality may be undervalued, but their mixed away form and the Stevenson doubt limit the move.
Verdict: Our final probabilities stay close to the market because the concrete team-news facts are limited, with only a marginal shift reflecting Cheltenham's midfield doubts and Oldham's fresher squad after midweek rotation.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published (UK time) | Home | Draw | Away | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 Oct 09:44 | 54% | 24% | 21% | First analysis |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger.
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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