Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax Amsterdam prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Ajax Amsterdam to win: 68%, about 2 in 3
Goals call3+ goals 72% · bookies 72%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three analysts converge on a strong likelihood of an Ajax victory. The data highlights Ajax's superior form, league position, and historical performance against Sparta, while the high goal-scoring averages suggest a match with multiple goals.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Ajax Amsterdam's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersAjax's offensive power is likely to overwhelm Sparta's defensive frailties.
Ajax averages 3.00 goals scored per game, while Sparta concedes 2.44 goals per game. Ajax has scored 2.00 goals per game away from home. Sparta's home form shows they scored 8 goals in their last 5 home fixtures.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThe disparity in league standing suggests a clear advantage for Ajax.
Ajax sit 4th in the table with 18 points from 9 games. Sparta are 13th with 9 points from 9 games. Ajax have only had 2 days rest, compared to Sparta's 7 days rest.
Ajax Amsterdam: clearly underrated
More goalsMed The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market appears to correctly price the strong likelihood of an Ajax victory.
In the last 6 head-to-head encounters, Ajax have won 3 times. The published probability for over 2.5 goals is 84%, supported by Ajax's 78% over 2.5 goals rate.
Ajax Amsterdam: clearly underrated
More goalsMed Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Ajax Amsterdam are clear favourites at 68%, with Sparta Rotterdam on 15% and the draw on 17%. Sparta Rotterdam are 14th and Ajax Amsterdam 4th in the Eredivisie. In their last five league games, Sparta Rotterdam won one and Ajax Amsterdam three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Sparta Rotterdam win or draw
- 32%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 83%
- Ajax Amsterdam win or draw
- 85%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 89%
- 3+ goals
- 72%
- 4+ goals
- 52%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 63%
- No
- 37%
We expect about 1.2 goals from Sparta Rotterdam and 2.6 from Ajax Amsterdam. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–2 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–3 (8%), 0–2 (8%), 1–1 (7%), 0–3 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16% | 15% | 69% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1134 | |
| 2 | 15% | 17% | 68% | Prices moved | #1326 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Sparta Rotterdam: last 6
WDLLDL · 10 scored, 17 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Willem II | 3–2 | W |
| 10 Oct | at GO Ahead Eagles | 3–3 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Heerenveen | 0–4 | L |
| 13 Sep | at PSV Eindhoven | 1–4 | L |
| 4 Sep | vs PEC Zwolle | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | at Excelsior | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: WLDDL
Ajax Amsterdam: last 6
WWLDDW · 16 scored, 8 conceded
| 22 Oct | vs Atalanta UEFA Europa Conference League | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | at Groningen | 5–2 | W |
| 15 Oct | at HNK Hajduk Split UEFA Europa Conference League | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs NEC Nijmegen | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Excelsior | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Sep | vs Willem II | 5–1 | W |
Last 5 away: WLWWW
Season stats
| Sparta Rotterdam | Ajax Amsterdam | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.78 | Goals scored per game | 3.00 |
| 2.44 | Goals conceded per game | 1.33 |
| 1.60 | Scored per game at home | 2.20 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game away | 4.00 |
| 89% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 78% |
| 78% | Both teams scored | 78% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 22% |
| 22% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 10 | +21 | 24 | DWWWW |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 10 | +15 | 20 | DLWLW |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 9 | +10 | 20 | DLWDW |
| 4 | Ajax Amsterdam | 9 | +15 | 18 | WDDWW |
| 5 | Fortuna Sittard | 10 | +0 | 18 | WDDWL |
| 6 | Twente | 9 | +7 | 17 | LDWWW |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | +5 | 15 | WWLWD |
| … | |||||
| 11 | Utrecht | 10 | -10 | 12 | DWWLW |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 10 | -1 | 11 | DDDDL |
| 13 | Excelsior | 10 | -3 | 11 | LLLDL |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | -6 | 9 | WDLLD |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | -12 | 8 | DWLLL |
| 16 | Telstar | 10 | -9 | 6 | LLDLD |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 10 | -10 | 6 | LWDDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Sparta Rotterdam won 0, Ajax Amsterdam 3, 3 draws; 3.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar 2026 | Ajax Amsterdam | 4–0 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
| 4 Oct 2025 | Sparta Rotterdam | 3–3 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie |
| 27 Apr 2025 | Ajax Amsterdam | 1–1 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
| 22 Dec 2024 | Sparta Rotterdam | 0–2 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie |
| 17 Mar 2024 | Sparta Rotterdam | 2–2 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie |
| 9 Dec 2023 | Ajax Amsterdam | 2–1 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutS. MitoInjury
- OutS. AdingraLacking Match Fitness
- OutS. BerghuisInjury
- OutD. BlindBack
Show 4 more
- OutCaio HenriqueThigh
- OutK. DolbergKnee
- OutO. EdvardsenNot available
- OutA. GaaeiInjury
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Rest days
- Sparta Rotterdam 7Ajax Amsterdam 2
- Matches in the last 14 days: Sparta Rotterdam 1 · Ajax Amsterdam 3
- Referee
- Danny Makkelie
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
