NEC Nijmegen vs FC Groningen prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
NEC Nijmegen to win: 43%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 68% · bookies 68% · ✓ 4 goals
The Verdict
The combined analysis points towards a high-scoring game, with the market favouring FC Groningen slightly. However, historical head-to-head data and the attacking nature of both sides suggest NEC may be slightly undervalued in the home win probability.
What our AI analysts say
All three think FC Groningen's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersThis fixture promises an open, high-scoring encounter given the attacking statistics of both sides.
Both NEC and FC Groningen have high scoring rates, with season stats showing 1.67 and 2.44 goals scored per game respectively. Both teams also boast high rates of both teams scoring, at 89% and 89%.
Groningen: strongly underrated
More goalsHigh The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThe clash is between two teams in the middle of the table with similar points totals.
FC Groningen sits 7th with 14 points from 9 games, while NEC Nijmegen is 12th with 10 points from 9 games.
Groningen: strongly underrated
More goalsHigh The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHistorical results suggest NEC has a strong edge over FC Groningen in this fixture.
In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, NEC Nijmegen has won 4 times and FC Groningen has won 2 times. These matches have averaged 3.0 goals per game.
Groningen: strongly underrated
More goalsHigh Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
NEC Nijmegen are slight favourites at 43%, with FC Groningen on 33% and the draw on 24%. NEC Nijmegen are 13th and FC Groningen 8th in the Eredivisie. In their last five league games, NEC Nijmegen won none and FC Groningen two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- NEC Nijmegen win or draw
- 67%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- FC Groningen win or draw
- 57%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 86%
- 3+ goals
- 68%
- 4+ goals
- 46%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 68%
- No
- 32%
We expect about 1.9 goals from NEC Nijmegen and 1.6 from FC Groningen. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (7%), 2–2 (7%), 1–0 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30% | 20% | 50% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1048 | |
| 2 | 43% | 25% | 33% | Prices moved | #1334 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
NEC Nijmegen: last 6
WDDDDL · 9 scored, 12 conceded
| 22 Oct | at Dinamo Zagreb UEFA Europa League | 4–2 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Fortuna Sittard | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Oct | vs Levski Sofia UEFA Europa League | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Ajax | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs GO Ahead Eagles | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Sep | at Juventus UEFA Europa League | 0–5 | L |
Last 5 at home: DDDDL
FC Groningen: last 6
LWWDDL · 15 scored, 12 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Ajax | 2–5 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Excelsior | 5–1 | W |
| 18 Sep | vs PEC Zwolle | 3–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | at GO Ahead Eagles | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Twente | 2–2 | D |
| 28 Aug | vs Fortuna Sittard | 2–3 | L |
Last 4 away: WDLW
Season stats
| NEC Nijmegen | FC Groningen | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.67 | Goals scored per game | 2.44 |
| 1.78 | Goals conceded per game | 2.11 |
| 1.40 | Scored per game at home | 2.20 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game away | 2.75 |
| 78% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 89% |
| 89% | Both teams scored | 89% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 11% |
| 11% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Fortuna Sittard | 10 | +0 | 18 | WDDWL |
| 6 | Twente | 9 | +7 | 17 | LDWWW |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | +5 | 15 | WWLWD |
| 8 | FC Groningen | 10 | +3 | 15 | DLWWD |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 10 | +0 | 14 | WLDDD |
| 10 | Cambuur | 10 | -3 | 12 | WDWDW |
| 11 | Utrecht | 10 | -10 | 12 | DWWLW |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 10 | -1 | 11 | DDDDL |
| 13 | Excelsior | 10 | -3 | 11 | LLLDL |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | -6 | 9 | WDLLD |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | -12 | 8 | DWLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: NEC Nijmegen won 4, FC Groningen 2, 0 draws; 3.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 May 2026 | FC Groningen | 2–1 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| 9 Nov 2025 | NEC Nijmegen | 2–0 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie |
| 19 Jul 2025 | FC Groningen | 1–2 | NEC Nijmegen | Friendlies Clubs |
| 8 Feb 2025 | FC Groningen | 2–1 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| 3 Nov 2024 | NEC Nijmegen | 6–0 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie |
| 25 Apr 2023 | FC Groningen | 0–1 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutE. MorGroin
- OutY. MoslihNot available
- OutB. NuytinckAnkle
Show 2 more
- OutP. SandlerInjury
- OutD. TadicCalf
- OutM. JengLeg
- OutT. MerceraInjury
- OutE. van der LaanInjury
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Rest days
- NEC Nijmegen 2FC Groningen 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: NEC Nijmegen 3 · FC Groningen 2
- Referee
- Martin Van den Kerkhof
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
