Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Excelsior 37%)
Goals call3+ goals 54% · bookies 54% · ✗ 1 goals
The Verdict
The analysts converge on a high-scoring affair, with the Coach and Sceptic leaning towards an away win or draw, while the Dressing Room suggests a slight edge for the home side.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Excelsior's chances are better than the bookmakers say. The Dressing Room thinks Fortuna Sittard are underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersThe high scoring nature of both sides suggests a match with plenty of goals.
Both teams average 1.78 goals scored per game. Excelsior is highly potent away, averaging 2.20 goals per game, while Fortuna's home attack averages 1.25 goals.
Excelsior: clearly underrated
More goalsMed The Dressing Room
the table and pressureFortuna's higher league standing and home advantage should be a factor.
Fortuna Sittard sits 6th in the table with 15 points from 9 games. Excelsior is 10th with 11 points. Fortuna's home form in the last 4 games saw them score 5 goals but concede 9. Fortuna has had 6 days rest.
Fortuna Sittard: clearly underrated
More goalsMed The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market's view of Excelsior's attacking threat appears justified by their season record.
The published 41% chance for Excelsior is supported by their 100% over 2.5 goals rate this season. However, the Head-to-Head record shows Fortuna has won 3 of the last 6 meetings. The overall match average is 3.2 goals per game.
Excelsior: clearly underrated
More goalsMed Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Excelsior are slight favourites at 37%, with Fortuna Sittard on 36% and the draw on 27%. Fortuna Sittard are 7th and Excelsior 12th in the Eredivisie. In their last five league games, Fortuna Sittard won two and Excelsior none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Fortuna Sittard win or draw
- 62%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Excelsior win or draw
- 64%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 54%
- 4+ goals
- 32%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 58%
- No
- 42%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Fortuna Sittard and 1.4 from Excelsior. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–2 (8%), 0–1 (8%), 2–1 (8%), 1–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% | 21% | 41% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #955 | |
| 2 | 40% | 26% | 34% | Prices moved | #956 | |
| 3 | 36% | 27% | 38% | Prices moved | #1370 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Fortuna Sittard: last 6
DDWLWW · 11 scored, 12 conceded
| 18 Oct | at NEC Nijmegen | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Twente | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Willem II | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Ajax | 1–5 | L |
| 6 Sep | at ADO Den Haag | 3–2 | W |
| 28 Aug | at Groningen | 3–2 | W |
Last 4 at home: DLLW
Excelsior: last 6
LLDLDW · 9 scored, 15 conceded
| 16 Oct | at Heerenveen | 0–4 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Groningen | 1–5 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Ajax | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Utrecht | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Sep | at NEC Nijmegen | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sep | at Willem II | 3–0 | W |
Last 5 away: LDDWW
Season stats
| Fortuna Sittard | Excelsior | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.78 | Goals scored per game | 1.78 |
| 1.89 | Goals conceded per game | 2.00 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game at home | 1.25 |
| 2.20 | Scored per game away | 2.20 |
| 67% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 100% |
| 78% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 11% | Clean sheets | 22% |
| 11% | Failed to score | 11% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 10 | +15 | 20 | DLWLW |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 9 | +10 | 20 | DLWDW |
| 4 | Ajax | 9 | +15 | 18 | WDDWW |
| 5 | Fortuna Sittard | 10 | +0 | 18 | WDDWL |
| 6 | Twente | 9 | +7 | 17 | LDWWW |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | +5 | 15 | WWLWD |
| 8 | Groningen | 10 | +3 | 15 | DLWWD |
| … | |||||
| 10 | Cambuur | 10 | -3 | 12 | WDWDW |
| 11 | Utrecht | 10 | -10 | 12 | DWWLW |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 10 | -1 | 11 | DDDDL |
| 13 | Excelsior | 10 | -3 | 11 | LLLDL |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | -6 | 9 | WDLLD |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | -12 | 8 | DWLLL |
| 16 | Telstar | 10 | -9 | 6 | LLDLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Fortuna Sittard won 3, Excelsior 2, 1 draw; 3.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Feb 2026 | Fortuna Sittard | 2–1 | Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| 19 Oct 2025 | Excelsior | 1–0 | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| 3 Mar 2024 | Fortuna Sittard | 5–2 | Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| 26 Aug 2023 | Excelsior | 2–2 | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| 21 May 2023 | Excelsior | 3–0 | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| 17 Sep 2022 | Fortuna Sittard | 1–0 | Excelsior | Eredivisie |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutR. BayramKnee
- OutI. MarquezInjury
- OutY. OukiliGroin
Show 1 more
- DoubtJ. DahlhausNot available
No absences reported.
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Rest days
- Fortuna Sittard 6Excelsior 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Fortuna Sittard 1 · Excelsior 2
- Referee
- Ingmar Oostrom
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
