AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
AZ Alkmaar to win: 45%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 68% · bookies 68%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings land within a few points of the published prices, so the market view of AZ 45, draw 24, Twente 31 looks broadly right. The goals case is stronger still: both sides' scoring and conceding rates, Twente's away form and a 3.2 goals-per-game head-to-head all sit comfortably with the 68% over 2.5 line.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think FC Twente's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make FC Twente favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth sides score freely enough to make three-plus goals the base case
AZ average 2.25 goals per home game and Twente 1.75 away, while both concede 1.11 per game this season. Neither side fails to score more than 11% of the time.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureAZ's home strength against a chasing Twente makes this a real contest
AZ sit 3rd on 20 points from 9 games (W6 D2 L1) with Twente 6th on 17, so a win flips the gap. AZ have won four and drawn one of their last five at home, conceding four.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe published numbers look fair, though the home edge may be slightly fat
Head-to-head says AZ won 4 of the last 6 with 3.2 goals per game and two 2026 meetings produced 2-2 and 2-1, which backs 68% over 2.5.
Twente: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
AZ Alkmaar are favourites at 45%, with FC Twente on 31% and the draw on 24%. AZ Alkmaar are 3rd and FC Twente 6th in the Eredivisie. In their last five league games, AZ Alkmaar won two and FC Twente three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- AZ Alkmaar win or draw
- 69%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- FC Twente win or draw
- 55%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 86%
- 3+ goals
- 68%
- 4+ goals
- 46%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 68%
- No
- 32%
We expect about 1.9 goals from AZ Alkmaar and 1.6 from FC Twente. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (7%), 2–2 (7%), 1–0 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% | 23% | 40% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1187 | |
| 2 | 45% | 24% | 31% | Prices moved | #1308 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
AZ Alkmaar: last 6
WDWLWL · 9 scored, 6 conceded
| 22 Oct | at Ararat-Armenia UEFA Europa League | 4–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | at Cambuur | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Oct | vs Hapoel Beer Sheva UEFA Europa League | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Feyenoord | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Telstar | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | at Sunderland UEFA Europa League | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: WWDWW
FC Twente: last 6
WLWDWW · 12 scored, 6 conceded
| 22 Oct | at Lincoln Red Imps FC UEFA Europa Conference League | 4–1 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Utrecht | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Oct | vs FC Thun UEFA Europa Conference League | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Fortuna Sittard | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs PSV Eindhoven | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs ADO Den Haag | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 away: WDDWW
Season stats
| AZ Alkmaar | FC Twente | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.22 | Goals scored per game | 1.89 |
| 1.11 | Goals conceded per game | 1.11 |
| 2.25 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 2.20 | Scored per game away | 1.75 |
| 44% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 56% |
| 56% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 22% |
| 11% | Failed to score | 11% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 10 | +21 | 24 | DWWWW |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 10 | +15 | 20 | DLWLW |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 9 | +10 | 20 | DLWDW |
| 4 | Ajax | 9 | +15 | 18 | WDDWW |
| 5 | Fortuna Sittard | 10 | +0 | 18 | WDDWL |
| 6 | FC Twente | 9 | +7 | 17 | LDWWW |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | +5 | 15 | WWLWD |
| 8 | Groningen | 10 | +3 | 15 | DLWWD |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 10 | +0 | 14 | WLDDD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: AZ Alkmaar won 4, FC Twente 1, 1 draw; 3.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2026 | AZ Alkmaar | 2–2 | FC Twente | Eredivisie |
| 3 Feb 2026 | AZ Alkmaar | 2–1 | FC Twente | KNVB Beker |
| 30 Nov 2025 | FC Twente | 1–0 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| 25 May 2025 | AZ Alkmaar | 3–2 | FC Twente | Eredivisie |
| 14 May 2025 | FC Twente | 2–3 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| 21 Dec 2024 | AZ Alkmaar | 1–0 | FC Twente | Eredivisie |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutJ. HornkampInjury
- OutS. ResinkKnee
- OutK. SmitInjury
Show 1 more
- DoubtJ. ClasieKnock
- OutM. BrunsNot available
- OutS. LemkinMuscle
- OutF. ThorvaldsenNot available
Show 1 more
- OutL. UnnerstallNot available
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Travel for FC Twente
- 152 km
- Rest days
- AZ Alkmaar 3FC Twente 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: AZ Alkmaar 3 · FC Twente 3
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 41 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Alex Bos
- Goals in this league
- Eredivisie average: 3.83 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
