FC Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Utrecht to win: 59%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 61% · bookies 61% · ✗ 2 goals
The Verdict
The goals case is the strongest shared theme - Utrecht's 100% over-rate, both teams' leaky records and a head-to-head averaging 3.0 goals back the 65% over 2.5 line, with two cards nudging it a little higher.
What our AI analysts say
All three think FC Utrecht's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo leaky defences point to goals at both ends in Utrecht.
Both sides score and concede freely: Utrecht's league games go over 2.5 goals 100% of the time with both teams scoring 89%, and neither side keeps clean sheets (0% and 11%). Home matches average 2.00 scored per game for Utrecht, and PEC still average 1.25 away.
Utrecht: clearly underrated
More goalsMed The Dressing Room
the table and pressureMid-table pressure and a fresh Utrecht run favour the hosts.
Utrecht sit 11th on 11 points from 9 games, PEC 15th on 7, so the home side carry the greater urgency. Utrecht's last three league games brought three wins; PEC have lost 6 of 9. Both are 5-6 days rested with two games in 14 days.
Utrecht: clearly underrated
More goalsMed The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe home price looks a touch high after heavy Utrecht defeats.
Still, the 2026 head-to-head ended 1-1 and Utrecht won the other recent meetings, so 3-21-16 is broadly defensible.
Utrecht: slightly underrated
More goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
FC Utrecht are favourites at 59%, with PEC Zwolle on 19% and the draw on 22%. FC Utrecht are 11th and PEC Zwolle 15th in the Eredivisie. In their last five league games, FC Utrecht won three and PEC Zwolle one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- FC Utrecht win or draw
- 81%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 78%
- PEC Zwolle win or draw
- 41%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 82%
- 3+ goals
- 61%
- 4+ goals
- 39%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 58%
- No
- 42%
We expect about 2.1 goals from FC Utrecht and 1.1 from PEC Zwolle. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (10%), 2–0 (9%), 1–0 (9%), 3–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
FC Utrecht: last 6
WWLWDL · 11 scored, 17 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Twente | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Willem II | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Feyenoord | 0–5 | L |
| 13 Sep | at Excelsior | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Sep | vs GO Ahead Eagles | 3–3 | D |
| 30 Aug | vs PSV Eindhoven | 1–6 | L |
Last 4 at home: WDLL
PEC Zwolle: last 6
WLLLDL · 7 scored, 17 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs GO Ahead Eagles | 4–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Cambuur | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Sep | at Groningen | 0–3 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Feyenoord | 0–7 | L |
| 4 Sep | at Sparta Rotterdam | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | vs NEC Nijmegen | 1–3 | L |
Last 4 away: LDWL
Season stats
| FC Utrecht | PEC Zwolle | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.78 | Goals scored per game | 1.11 |
| 2.89 | Goals conceded per game | 2.44 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 1.60 | Scored per game away | 1.25 |
| 100% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| 89% | Both teams scored | 44% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 11% |
| 11% | Failed to score | 44% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Groningen | 10 | +3 | 15 | DLWWD |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 10 | +0 | 14 | WLDDD |
| 10 | Cambuur | 10 | -3 | 12 | WDWDW |
| 11 | FC Utrecht | 10 | -10 | 12 | DWWLW |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 10 | -1 | 11 | DDDDL |
| 13 | Excelsior | 10 | -3 | 11 | LLLDL |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | -6 | 9 | WDLLD |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | -12 | 8 | DWLLL |
| 16 | Telstar | 10 | -9 | 6 | LLDLD |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 10 | -10 | 6 | LWDDL |
| 18 | Willem II | 10 | -22 | 2 | LLLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: FC Utrecht won 3, PEC Zwolle 1, 2 draws; 3.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Feb 2026 | FC Utrecht | 1–1 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie |
| 31 Aug 2025 | PEC Zwolle | 0–2 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie |
| 1 Feb 2025 | PEC Zwolle | 3–3 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie |
| 11 Aug 2024 | FC Utrecht | 1–0 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie |
| 3 Apr 2024 | FC Utrecht | 5–1 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie |
| 27 Aug 2023 | PEC Zwolle | 1–0 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutV. BarkasNot available
- OutM. BroholmNot available
- OutA. EngwandaHamstring
Show 4 more
- OutV. JensenKnee
- OutM. JonathansKnee
- OutN. OhioKnee
- OutK. ParedesKnee
- OutS. FloranusInjury
- OutF. KrastevAchilles Tendon
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Rest days
- FC Utrecht 5PEC Zwolle 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: FC Utrecht 2 · PEC Zwolle 2
- Referee
- Martijn Vos
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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