ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Heerenveen to win: 48%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 65% · bookies 65% · ✓ 5 goals
The Verdict
The Coach and Sceptic see the 65% over-2.5 line as roughly right or slightly generous, grounded in ADO's 2.22 goals conceded per game, the 3.0-goals-per-game head-to-head record and Heerenveen's 2.00 away goals per game.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersADO concede 2.22 per game with a 0% clean-sheet rate, while Heerenveen concede just 1.22 and keep 44% clean sheets. The visitors average 2.00 goals away, ADO only 1.50 at home, so the guests' attacking edge looks real.
Heerenveen: slightly overrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThe table gap gives Heerenveen the calmer build-up while ADO chase points.
ADO sit 17th on 6 points from 9 games, W1 D3 L5, while Heerenveen are 8th on 12 points. ADO's only recent win came against PSV, but home form reads W D L L. Heerenveen have two more rest days' worth of freshness in this load.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe published 48% for Heerenveen looks fair, but the goals market may be a touch high.
ADO are winless in six head-to-heads against Heerenveen (four draws), averaging 3.0 goals a game, yet Heerenveen's 33% both-teams-scored rate suggests the 65% market figure leans on ADO's leaky record more than the visitors' balance.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Heerenveen are favourites at 48%, with ADO Den Haag on 27% and the draw on 25%. ADO Den Haag are 17th and Heerenveen 9th in the Eredivisie. In their last five league games, ADO Den Haag won one and Heerenveen two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- ADO Den Haag win or draw
- 52%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Heerenveen win or draw
- 73%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 85%
- 3+ goals
- 65%
- 4+ goals
- 43%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 65%
- No
- 35%
We expect about 1.4 goals from ADO Den Haag and 1.9 from Heerenveen. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–2 (9%), 2–1 (7%), 0–1 (7%), 2–2 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27% | 25% | 48% | Stats preview | #790 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
ADO Den Haag: last 6
WDDLLD · 9 scored, 11 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs PSV Eindhoven | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Telstar | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Cambuur | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | at Twente | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Fortuna Sittard | 2–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | at Feyenoord | 2–2 | D |
Last 4 at home: WDLL
Heerenveen: last 6
WLWDLD · 12 scored, 7 conceded
| 16 Oct | vs Excelsior | 4–0 | W |
| 9 Oct | at PSV Eindhoven | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Sparta Rotterdam | 4–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Telstar | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs AZ Alkmaar | 2–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | at Willem II | 2–2 | D |
Last 4 away: LWDD
Season stats
| ADO Den Haag | Heerenveen | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.22 | Goals scored per game | 1.67 |
| 2.22 | Goals conceded per game | 1.22 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game at home | 1.40 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 2.00 |
| 67% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 56% |
| 78% | Both teams scored | 33% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 44% |
| 22% | Failed to score | 33% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Ajax | 9 | +15 | 18 | WDDWW |
| 5 | Fortuna Sittard | 10 | +0 | 18 | WDDWL |
| 6 | Twente | 9 | +7 | 17 | LDWWW |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | +5 | 15 | WWLWD |
| 8 | Groningen | 10 | +3 | 15 | DLWWD |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 10 | +0 | 14 | WLDDD |
| 10 | Cambuur | 10 | -3 | 12 | WDWDW |
| … | |||||
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | -6 | 9 | WDLLD |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | -12 | 8 | DWLLL |
| 16 | Telstar | 10 | -9 | 6 | LLDLD |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 10 | -10 | 6 | LWDDL |
| 18 | Willem II | 10 | -22 | 2 | LLLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: ADO Den Haag won 0, Heerenveen 2, 4 draws; 3.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Mar 2021 | Heerenveen | 3–0 | ADO Den Haag | Eredivisie |
| 28 Nov 2020 | ADO Den Haag | 1–1 | Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| 22 Feb 2020 | Heerenveen | 2–2 | ADO Den Haag | Eredivisie |
| 3 Nov 2019 | ADO Den Haag | 1–1 | Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| 9 Mar 2019 | ADO Den Haag | 2–3 | Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| 29 Sep 2018 | Heerenveen | 1–1 | ADO Den Haag | Eredivisie |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutL. ReischlGroin
- DoubtD. BaranyThigh
- DoubtD. ProperHamstring
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Rest days
- ADO Den Haag 7Heerenveen 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: ADO Den Haag 2 · Heerenveen 1
- Referee
- Jannick van der Laan
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
