PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
PSV Eindhoven to win: 93%, about 9 in 10
Goals call5+ goals 52% · bookies 52%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three land on a PSV home win, with the Coach and Sceptic seeing goal-heavy games as slightly likelier than the 52% published over, tempered by PSV's tighter recent home wins. The Dressing Room keeps draw and away chances near zero given Willem II's two-point season.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersWillem II concede 3.20 a game with zero clean sheets and 1.30-per-game opponents' pressure tells.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureWillem II arrive pointless in nine league games; PSV can close the gap above
PSV sit 3rd on 20 points from 10 games; a home win keeps pressure on the sides above. Willem II are 18th with 2 points from 10, winless, and carry a six-match losing run in all competitions. PSV have 6 days' rest, two games in 14 days - the schedule favours the hosts.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPublished home 93% looks right; the over 4.5 at 52% could be a shade low
BTTS at 45% published looks high against Willem II scoring 0.80 away, which nudges the over-4.5 case towards PSV-heavy totals rather than both ends scoring.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
PSV Eindhoven are clear favourites at 93%, with Willem II on 3% and the draw on 4%. PSV Eindhoven are 3rd and Willem II 18th in the Eredivisie. In their last five league games, PSV Eindhoven won two and Willem II none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- PSV Eindhoven win or draw
- 97%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 96%
- Willem II win or draw
- 7%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 95%
- 3+ goals
- 85%
- 4+ goals
- 70%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 45%
- No
- 55%
We expect about 4.2 goals from PSV Eindhoven and 0.6 from Willem II. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 4–0 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 3–0 (10%), 5–0 (9%), 2–0 (7%), 4–1 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 76% | 13% | 11% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1892 | |
| 2 | 93% | 4% | 3% | Prices moved | #2130 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
PSV Eindhoven: last 6
DWLLWL · 7 scored, 7 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Feyenoord | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Oct | at FC Porto UEFA Champions League | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | at ADO Den Haag | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Oct | at RB Leipzig UEFA Champions League | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Oct | vs Heerenveen | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Twente | 2–3 | L |
Last 5 at home: DWWDW
Willem II: last 6
LLLLLD · 6 scored, 19 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Cambuur | 1–6 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Sparta Rotterdam | 2–3 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Utrecht | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Fortuna Sittard | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Sep | at Ajax | 1–5 | L |
| 11 Sep | at AZ Alkmaar | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: LLLDL
Season stats
| PSV Eindhoven | Willem II | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.80 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 1.30 | Goals conceded per game | 3.20 |
| 2.80 | Scored per game at home | 0.80 |
| 2.80 | Scored per game away | 1.20 |
| 80% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 80% |
| 90% | Both teams scored | 80% |
| 10% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 20% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 10 | +21 | 24 | DWWWW |
| 2 | Ajax | 10 | +16 | 21 | WWDDW |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 10 | +15 | 20 | DLWLW |
| 4 | Twente | 10 | +9 | 20 | WLDWW |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 10 | +8 | 20 | LDLWD |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 10 | +0 | 18 | WDDWL |
| … | |||||
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | -12 | 8 | DWLLL |
| 16 | Telstar | 10 | -9 | 6 | LLDLD |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 10 | -10 | 6 | LWDDL |
| 18 | Willem II | 10 | -22 | 2 | LLLLL |
Match context
- Travel for Willem II
- 29 km
- Rest days
- PSV Eindhoven 6Willem II 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: PSV Eindhoven 2 · Willem II 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 10°C · wind 11 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Eredivisie average: 3.80 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
