Ajax Amsterdam vs AZ Alkmaar prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Ajax Amsterdam to win: 55%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 70% · bookies 70%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The combined analysis points towards a high-scoring encounter, with Ajax holding a slight edge at home. Both the coach's focus on attacking output and the dressing room's view of the league standings support a competitive match where goals are likely to flow.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Ajax Amsterdam's chances are better than the bookmakers say. The Dressing Room thinks a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersAjax's high-scoring home record suggests a match with significant attacking intent.
The team also maintains an 80% rate of matches featuring both teams scoring.
Ajax Amsterdam: slightly underrated
More goalsLow The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThe tight league positions suggest a competitive clash between two high-performing sides.
Ajax sit 2nd with 21 points from 10 games, while AZ Alkmaar are 5th with 20 points. Both teams have 6 days of rest since their last fixture.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market's high goal expectation is supported by the season's overall attacking output.
The competition averages 3.8 goals per match this season. Ajax's 80% BTTS rate and AZ's 2.20 away scoring average reinforce this trend.
Ajax Amsterdam: clearly underrated
Med Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Ajax Amsterdam are favourites at 55%, with AZ Alkmaar on 24% and the draw on 21%. Ajax Amsterdam are 2nd and AZ Alkmaar 5th in the Eredivisie. In their last five league games, Ajax Amsterdam won three and AZ Alkmaar one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Ajax Amsterdam win or draw
- 76%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 79%
- AZ Alkmaar win or draw
- 45%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 88%
- 3+ goals
- 70%
- 4+ goals
- 49%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 68%
- No
- 32%
We expect about 2.2 goals from Ajax Amsterdam and 1.4 from AZ Alkmaar. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (8%), 3–1 (7%), 2–2 (7%), 2–0 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% | 22% | 38% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1912 | |
| 2 | 55% | 21% | 24% | Prices moved | #2135 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Ajax Amsterdam: last 6
WWWLDD · 13 scored, 8 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Sparta Rotterdam | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Oct | vs Atalanta UEFA Europa Conference League | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | at Groningen | 5–2 | W |
| 15 Oct | at HNK Hajduk Split UEFA Europa Conference League | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs NEC Nijmegen | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Excelsior | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 at home: WDDWL
AZ Alkmaar: last 6
LWDWLW · 9 scored, 7 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Twente | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Oct | at Ararat-Armenia UEFA Europa League | 4–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | at Cambuur | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Oct | vs Hapoel Beer Sheva UEFA Europa League | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Feyenoord | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Telstar | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: WDLLW
Season stats
| Ajax Amsterdam | AZ Alkmaar | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.90 | Goals scored per game | 2.00 |
| 1.30 | Goals conceded per game | 1.20 |
| 2.20 | Scored per game at home | 1.80 |
| 3.60 | Scored per game away | 2.20 |
| 80% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 40% |
| 80% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 30% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 20% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 10 | +21 | 24 | DWWWW |
| 2 | Ajax Amsterdam | 10 | +16 | 21 | WWDDW |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 10 | +15 | 20 | DLWLW |
| 4 | Twente | 10 | +9 | 20 | WLDWW |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 10 | +8 | 20 | LDLWD |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 10 | +0 | 18 | WDDWL |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | +5 | 15 | WWLWD |
| 8 | Groningen | 10 | +3 | 15 | DLWWD |
Match context
- Travel for AZ Alkmaar
- 30 km
- Rest days
- Ajax Amsterdam 6AZ Alkmaar 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Ajax Amsterdam 3 · AZ Alkmaar 3
- Weather at kick-off
- 9°C · wind 8 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Eredivisie average: 3.80 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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