FC Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Groningen to win: 55%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 67% · bookies 67%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
In short
FC Groningen are favourites at 55%, with Sparta Rotterdam on 23% and the draw on 22%. FC Groningen are 8th and Sparta Rotterdam 14th in the Eredivisie. In their last five league games, FC Groningen won two and Sparta Rotterdam one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- FC Groningen win or draw
- 77%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 78%
- Sparta Rotterdam win or draw
- 45%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 86%
- 3+ goals
- 67%
- 4+ goals
- 45%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 64%
- No
- 36%
We expect about 2.1 goals from FC Groningen and 1.3 from Sparta Rotterdam. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 11. Next: 1–1 (9%), 2–0 (7%), 1–0 (7%), 3–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% | 19% | 36% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1758 | |
| 2 | 55% | 22% | 23% | Prices moved | #2174 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
FC Groningen: last 6
DLWWDD · 15 scored, 11 conceded
| 25 Oct | at NEC Nijmegen | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Oct | vs Ajax | 2–5 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Excelsior | 5–1 | W |
| 18 Sep | vs PEC Zwolle | 3–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | at GO Ahead Eagles | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Twente | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 at home: LWDLW
Sparta Rotterdam: last 6
LWDLLD · 10 scored, 17 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Ajax | 1–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Willem II | 3–2 | W |
| 10 Oct | at GO Ahead Eagles | 3–3 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Heerenveen | 0–4 | L |
| 13 Sep | at PSV Eindhoven | 1–4 | L |
| 4 Sep | vs PEC Zwolle | 2–2 | D |
Last 4 away: DLLW
Season stats
| FC Groningen | Sparta Rotterdam | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.40 | Goals scored per game | 1.70 |
| 2.10 | Goals conceded per game | 2.40 |
| 2.20 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 2.60 | Scored per game away | 2.00 |
| 90% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 90% |
| 90% | Both teams scored | 80% |
| 10% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 20% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 10 | +8 | 20 | LDLWD |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 10 | +0 | 18 | WDDWL |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | +5 | 15 | WWLWD |
| 8 | FC Groningen | 10 | +3 | 15 | DLWWD |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 10 | +0 | 14 | WLDDD |
| 10 | Cambuur | 10 | -3 | 12 | WDWDW |
| 11 | Utrecht | 10 | -10 | 12 | DWWLW |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 10 | -1 | 11 | DDDDL |
| 13 | Excelsior | 10 | -3 | 11 | LLLDL |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 10 | -7 | 9 | LWDLL |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | -12 | 8 | DWLLL |
| 16 | Telstar | 10 | -9 | 6 | LLDLD |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 10 | -10 | 6 | LWDDL |
Match context
- Travel for Sparta Rotterdam
- 201 km
- Rest days
- FC Groningen 7Sparta Rotterdam 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: FC Groningen 1 · Sparta Rotterdam 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 6 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Eredivisie average: 3.80 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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