Excelsior vs FC Twente prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Twente to win: 62%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 65% · bookies 65%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
In short
FC Twente are clear favourites at 62%, with Excelsior on 18% and the draw on 20%. Excelsior are 13th and FC Twente 4th in the Eredivisie. In their last five league games, Excelsior won none and FC Twente three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Excelsior win or draw
- 39%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 80%
- FC Twente win or draw
- 82%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 85%
- 3+ goals
- 65%
- 4+ goals
- 43%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 61%
- No
- 39%
We expect about 1.1 goals from Excelsior and 2.2 from FC Twente. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–2 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (9%), 0–2 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 1–3 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21% | 21% | 58% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1947 | |
| 2 | 18% | 20% | 61% | Prices moved | #2203 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Excelsior: last 6
LLLDLD · 6 scored, 16 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Fortuna Sittard | 0–1 | L |
| 16 Oct | at Heerenveen | 0–4 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Groningen | 1–5 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Ajax | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Utrecht | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Sep | at NEC Nijmegen | 2–2 | D |
Last 4 at home: LLWL
FC Twente: last 6
WWLWDW · 12 scored, 6 conceded
| 25 Oct | at AZ Alkmaar | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Oct | at Lincoln Red Imps FC UEFA Europa Conference League | 4–1 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Utrecht | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Oct | vs FC Thun UEFA Europa Conference League | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Fortuna Sittard | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs PSV Eindhoven | 3–2 | W |
Last 5 away: WWDDW
Season stats
| Excelsior | FC Twente | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 | Goals scored per game | 1.90 |
| 1.90 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 1.83 | Scored per game away | 1.80 |
| 90% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 60% | Both teams scored | 60% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 30% |
| 20% | Failed to score | 10% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 10 | +21 | 24 | DWWWW |
| 2 | Ajax | 10 | +16 | 21 | WWDDW |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 10 | +15 | 20 | DLWLW |
| 4 | FC Twente | 10 | +9 | 20 | WLDWW |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 10 | +8 | 20 | LDLWD |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 10 | +0 | 18 | WDDWL |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | +5 | 15 | WWLWD |
| … | |||||
| 10 | Cambuur | 10 | -3 | 12 | WDWDW |
| 11 | Utrecht | 10 | -10 | 12 | DWWLW |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 10 | -1 | 11 | DDDDL |
| 13 | Excelsior | 10 | -3 | 11 | LLLDL |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 10 | -7 | 9 | LWDLL |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | -12 | 8 | DWLLL |
| 16 | Telstar | 10 | -9 | 6 | LLDLD |
Match context
- Travel for FC Twente
- 168 km
- Rest days
- Excelsior 7FC Twente 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Excelsior 1 · FC Twente 3
- Weather at kick-off
- 11°C · wind 5 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Eredivisie average: 3.80 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
