Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Heerenveen to win: 46%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 70% · bookies 70%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The three readings suggest a competitive match where goals are highly likely. Heerenveen's home strength is balanced by NEC's high-scoring away form and the overall trend of 3.8 goals per match. The high probability of both teams scoring is a key factor.
What our AI analysts say
All three think NEC Nijmegen's chances are better than the bookmakers say. None of them makes NEC Nijmegen favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersHeerenveen's home attack is potent, but NEC's away form suggests a high-scoring encounter.
Heerenveen scores 1.40 per game at home, while NEC scores 2.00 away. Heerenveen concedes 1.30 per game, but NEC concedes 1.80. The overall scoring environment sees 3.8 goals per match this season.
NEC Nijmegen: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureHeerenveen needs points to climb the table, while NEC faces a heavy fixture load.
Heerenveen sits 7th in the table with 15 points from 10 games. NEC is 12th with 11 points from 10 games. Both sides have 6 days of rest since their last fixture.
NEC Nijmegen: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market may be underestimating the high-scoring nature of this fixture.
NEC has an 80% rate of matches over 2.5 goals in the season. Both teams have high BTTS rates (40% vs 90%). The market gives Heerenveen 45%, but the data points to more goals.
NEC Nijmegen: slightly underrated
More goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Heerenveen are favourites at 46%, with NEC Nijmegen on 30% and the draw on 24%. Heerenveen are 7th and NEC Nijmegen 12th in the Eredivisie. In their last five league games, Heerenveen won three and NEC Nijmegen none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Heerenveen win or draw
- 70%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- NEC Nijmegen win or draw
- 55%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 88%
- 3+ goals
- 70%
- 4+ goals
- 49%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 69%
- No
- 31%
We expect about 2.0 goals from Heerenveen and 1.6 from NEC Nijmegen. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (7%), 2–2 (7%), 3–1 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% | 23% | 38% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1754 | |
| 2 | 45% | 24% | 30% | Prices moved | #2093 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Heerenveen: last 6
WWLWDL · 13 scored, 7 conceded
| 24 Oct | at ADO Den Haag | 3–2 | W |
| 16 Oct | vs Excelsior | 4–0 | W |
| 9 Oct | at PSV Eindhoven | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Sparta Rotterdam | 4–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Telstar | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs AZ Alkmaar | 2–3 | L |
Last 5 at home: WDLLW
NEC Nijmegen: last 6
DWDDDD · 11 scored, 9 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Groningen | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Oct | at Dinamo Zagreb UEFA Europa League | 4–2 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Fortuna Sittard | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Oct | vs Levski Sofia UEFA Europa League | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Ajax | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs GO Ahead Eagles | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: WDLLW
Season stats
| Heerenveen | NEC Nijmegen | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.80 | Goals scored per game | 1.70 |
| 1.30 | Goals conceded per game | 1.80 |
| 1.40 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 2.20 | Scored per game away | 2.00 |
| 60% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 80% |
| 40% | Both teams scored | 90% |
| 40% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 30% | Failed to score | 10% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Twente | 10 | +9 | 20 | WLDWW |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 10 | +8 | 20 | LDLWD |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 10 | +0 | 18 | WDDWL |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | +5 | 15 | WWLWD |
| 8 | Groningen | 10 | +3 | 15 | DLWWD |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 10 | +0 | 14 | WLDDD |
| 10 | Cambuur | 10 | -3 | 12 | WDWDW |
| 11 | Utrecht | 10 | -10 | 12 | DWWLW |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 10 | -1 | 11 | DDDDL |
| 13 | Excelsior | 10 | -3 | 11 | LLLDL |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 10 | -7 | 9 | LWDLL |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | -12 | 8 | DWLLL |
Match context
- Travel for NEC Nijmegen
- 124 km
- Rest days
- Heerenveen 6NEC Nijmegen 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Heerenveen 1 · NEC Nijmegen 3
- Weather at kick-off
- 11°C · wind 7 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Eredivisie average: 3.80 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
