Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Feyenoord to win: 85%, about 4 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 78% · bookies 78%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The coach's style read, the dressing room's unbeaten-league-run angle and the sceptic's concession check all land near the same place.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersFeyenoord's home scoring machine meets a defence that rarely keeps the door shut.
Feyenoord average 2.75 scored per home game and concede just 1.10 per game overall with 40% clean sheets. Fortuna concede 1.70 a game, keep only 20% clean sheets, and score 2.20 away - both-teams-scored lands in 52-70% territory, so a high-scoring home win fits the profile.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureFirst against sixth, but the gap in points and the hosts' unbeaten run shape the game.
Feyenoord sit 1st on 24 points from 10, unbeaten in the league (W7 D3), while 6th-placed Fortuna have 18 - a six-point spread.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongNumbers are broadly fair; the away price may be a shade generous to Fortuna.
Slight lift for them, over unchanged at 78%.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Feyenoord are clear favourites at 85%, with Fortuna Sittard on 6% and the draw on 9%. Feyenoord are 1st and Fortuna Sittard 6th in the Eredivisie. In their last five league games, Feyenoord won four and Fortuna Sittard two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Feyenoord win or draw
- 95%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 91%
- Fortuna Sittard win or draw
- 15%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 91%
- 3+ goals
- 78%
- 4+ goals
- 59%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 52%
- No
- 48%
We expect about 3.3 goals from Feyenoord and 0.8 from Fortuna Sittard. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 3–0 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–0 (9%), 4–0 (8%), 3–1 (8%), 2–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% | 20% | 27% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1870 | |
| 2 | 85% | 9% | 5% | Prices moved | #2124 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Feyenoord: last 6
DLWWWW · 15 scored, 7 conceded
| 25 Oct | at PSV Eindhoven | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Oct | at Real Betis UEFA Champions League | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Telstar | 4–3 | W |
| 14 Oct | vs Como UEFA Champions League | 3–2 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs AZ Alkmaar | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Utrecht | 5–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWWDD
Fortuna Sittard: last 6
WDDWLW · 9 scored, 10 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Excelsior | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | at NEC Nijmegen | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Twente | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Willem II | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Ajax | 1–5 | L |
| 6 Sep | at ADO Den Haag | 3–2 | W |
Last 5 away: DWWWD
Season stats
| Feyenoord | Fortuna Sittard | |
|---|---|---|
| 3.20 | Goals scored per game | 1.70 |
| 1.10 | Goals conceded per game | 1.70 |
| 2.75 | Scored per game at home | 1.20 |
| 3.50 | Scored per game away | 2.20 |
| 70% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 60% |
| 60% | Both teams scored | 70% |
| 40% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 10% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 10 | +21 | 24 | DWWWW |
| 2 | Ajax | 10 | +16 | 21 | WWDDW |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 10 | +15 | 20 | DLWLW |
| 4 | Twente | 10 | +9 | 20 | WLDWW |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 10 | +8 | 20 | LDLWD |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 10 | +0 | 18 | WDDWL |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | +5 | 15 | WWLWD |
| 8 | Groningen | 10 | +3 | 15 | DLWWD |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 10 | +0 | 14 | WLDDD |
Match context
- Travel for Fortuna Sittard
- 140 km
- Rest days
- Feyenoord 6Fortuna Sittard 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Feyenoord 3 · Fortuna Sittard 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 8 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Eredivisie average: 3.80 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
