Asyut Petrol vs El Gouna FC prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
El Gouna to win: 41%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 69% · bookies 69%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings converge on a tight, low-scoring contest between two struggling sides, with El Gouna marginally favoured despite their winless run. The published 41% away chance looks slightly generous, and the 31% over 2.5 line sits comfortably with the evidence. A draw or narrow away win with few goals is the consensus picture.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think a draw is underrated. The Dressing Room thinks Asyut Petrol are underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo blunt attacks and leaky defences point to a low-scoring, tight affair.
Asyut Petrol score just 0.43 per game and fail to score in 71% of matches; El Gouna concede 1.43 per game with zero clean sheets. El Gouna do score in 57% of matches via both-teams-score, but Asyut's home scoring of 0.25 per game caps the total.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureBoth sides are starved of wins, and El Gouna's winless run adds pressure on the visitors.
Asyut Petrol sit 16th with 5 points from 7 (W1 D2 L4) and have lost their last three home games. El Gouna are 20th with just 2 points from 7, winless (W0 D2 L5) and on five straight league defeats. With both on long rest and little to protect, a nervy, cautious game is likely.
Asyut Petrol: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market's lean to El Gouna looks fair, but the low over price may be slightly generous.
El Gouna at 41% away with no wins all season and two goals scored in their last three road games feels a touch high; Asyut's home form (L L L D, one goal scored) justifies only a small discount.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
El Gouna FC are slight favourites at 41%, with Asyut Petrol on 26% and the draw on 33%. Asyut Petrol are 16th and El Gouna FC 20th in the Egyptian Premier League. In their last five league games, Asyut Petrol won one and El Gouna FC none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Asyut Petrol win or draw
- 59%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 67%
- El Gouna FC win or draw
- 74%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 58%
- 3+ goals
- 31%
- 4+ goals
- 13%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 38%
- No
- 62%
We expect about 0.8 goals from Asyut Petrol and 1.1 from El Gouna FC. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–1 (16%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 6. Next: 0–0 (14%), 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (12%), 0–2 (9%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26% | 33% | 41% | Stats preview | #1976 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Asyut Petrol: last 6
LWLLLD · 2 scored, 6 conceded
| 20 Oct | vs Zamalek SC | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Oct | at Abu Qair Semad | 2–1 | W |
| 15 Sep | vs Future FC | 0–2 | L |
| 7 Sep | at Al Ittihad | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Aug | vs National Bank of Egypt | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Aug | at Smouha SC | 0–0 | D |
Last 4 at home: LLLD
El Gouna FC: last 6
LLLLLD · 3 scored, 9 conceded
| 19 Oct | vs Smouha SC | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Oct | at Al Ittihad | 1–2 | L |
| 16 Sep | vs Petrojet | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Sep | at Pyramids FC | 0–1 | L |
| 2 Sep | vs El Mokawloon | 0–1 | L |
| 28 Aug | at Olympic El Qanah | 1–1 | D |
Last 3 away: LLD
Season stats
| Asyut Petrol | El Gouna FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.43 | Goals scored per game | 0.57 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.43 |
| 0.25 | Scored per game at home | 0.50 |
| 0.67 | Scored per game away | 0.67 |
| 14% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 29% |
| 29% | Both teams scored | 57% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 71% | Failed to score | 43% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Egyptian Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | AL Masry | 7 | -2 | 8 | DDLLL |
| 14 | Wadi Degla | 7 | -1 | 7 | DDLLD |
| 15 | El Geish | 7 | -6 | 7 | LLLDL |
| 16 | Asyut Petrol | 7 | -4 | 5 | LWLLL |
| 17 | Enppi | 7 | -7 | 4 | LLLWD |
| 18 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 7 | -8 | 4 | WLLLD |
| 19 | Abu Qair Semad | 7 | -8 | 4 | DLLLL |
| 20 | El Gouna FC | 7 | -6 | 2 | LLLLL |
Match context
- Travel for El Gouna FC
- 247 km
- Rest days
- Asyut Petrol 10El Gouna FC 11
- Matches in the last 14 days: Asyut Petrol 1 · El Gouna FC 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 26°C · wind 10 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Egyptian Premier League average: 2.34 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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