Al Ittihad vs El Geish prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
A draw is the most likely result: 36%, about 1 in 3
Goals call2 goals or fewer 71% · bookies 71%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings converge: Al Ittihad's superior form and defensive record (57% clean sheets) against an El Geish side on a four-match losing run make the hosts narrow favourites, but the draw at 36% is well supported by two modest attacks (1.0 and 0.9 expected goals).
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Al Ittihad's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersExpected goals of 1.0 versus 0.9 fit a low-scoring game.
Al Ittihad: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureForm gap favours Al Ittihad but the draw looms large
Al Ittihad sit 6th on 13 points from 7 games (W4 D1 L2) and won four of their last six; El Geish are 15th on 7 points (W2 D1 L4) with four straight league defeats. Both had 9-10 days' rest, so freshness is even.
Al Ittihad: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPrices look fair, though the over may be shaded a touch high
Al Ittihad 34/draw 36/El Geish 30 broadly matches the data: the hosts' home form is W W L with 4 scored and 4 conceded, while El Geish's away run is L D W with 4 scored and 6 conceded. Over 2.5 at 29% sits near the sides' 43% over-2.5 rates given a 2.34 league scoring environment.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
No clear favourite: a draw is the single most likely result at 36%. Al Ittihad are 6th and El Geish 15th in the Egyptian Premier League. In their last five league games, Al Ittihad won four and El Geish none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Al Ittihad win or draw
- 70%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 64%
- El Geish win or draw
- 66%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 55%
- 3+ goals
- 28%
- 4+ goals
- 12%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 36%
- No
- 64%
We expect about 1.0 goals from Al Ittihad and 0.9 from El Geish. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–0 (16%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 6. Next: 1–0 (15%), 0–1 (14%), 1–1 (13%), 2–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34% | 36% | 30% | Stats preview | #1970 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Al Ittihad: last 6
LWWWWL · 9 scored, 6 conceded
| 21 Oct | at Ghazl El Mehalla | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Oct | vs El Gouna FC | 2–1 | W |
| 15 Sep | at AL Masry | 2–0 | W |
| 7 Sep | vs Asyut Petrol | 1–0 | W |
| 2 Sep | at Abu Qair Semad | 2–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | vs Ceramica Cleopatra | 1–3 | L |
Last 3 at home: WWL
El Geish: last 6
LLLDLW · 5 scored, 12 conceded
| 20 Oct | vs Pyramids FC | 1–4 | L |
| 13 Oct | at National Bank of Egypt | 0–3 | L |
| 14 Sep | vs Smouha SC | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Sep | at Olympic El Qanah | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Sep | vs Masr | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Aug | at Petrojet | 3–2 | W |
Last 3 away: LDW
Season stats
| Al Ittihad | El Geish | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.29 | Goals scored per game | 0.86 |
| 0.86 | Goals conceded per game | 1.71 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game at home | 0.50 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game away | 1.33 |
| 43% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| 43% | Both teams scored | 43% |
| 57% | Clean sheets | 14% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 43% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Egyptian Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Zamalek SC | 7 | +6 | 16 | WLWWW |
| 4 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 7 | +6 | 15 | WLWWW |
| 5 | Future FC | 7 | +3 | 13 | LWWWL |
| 6 | Al Ittihad | 7 | +3 | 13 | LWWWW |
| 7 | El Mokawloon | 7 | +4 | 11 | WDWDW |
| 8 | Masr | 7 | +0 | 11 | WDWLW |
| 9 | National Bank of Egypt | 7 | +0 | 10 | DWLWW |
| … | |||||
| 12 | Petrojet | 7 | -2 | 8 | LDWWL |
| 13 | AL Masry | 7 | -2 | 8 | DDLLL |
| 14 | Wadi Degla | 7 | -1 | 7 | DDLLD |
| 15 | El Geish | 7 | -6 | 7 | LLLDL |
| 16 | Asyut Petrol | 7 | -4 | 5 | LWLLL |
| 17 | Enppi | 7 | -7 | 4 | LLLWD |
| 18 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 7 | -8 | 4 | WLLLD |
Match context
- Travel for El Geish
- 179 km
- Rest days
- Al Ittihad 9El Geish 10
- Matches in the last 14 days: Al Ittihad 1 · El Geish 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 21°C · wind 8 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Egyptian Premier League average: 2.34 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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