Abu Qair Semad vs Ghazl El Mehalla prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Ghazl El Mehalla 36%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 68%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
All three readings converge on a near-even match with no clear edge: home 33%, draw 31%, away 36%, mirroring the published numbers. Every angle flags a shortage of goals - two attacks on 0.43 per game, low scoring rates home and away, and only a 32% chance of three or more goals. This shapes up as a tight, low-scoring contest between two out-of-form sides.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo blunt attacks point to a tight, low-scoring affair
Ghazl failed to score in 71% of matches, Abu Qair in 57%, and the home side managed 0.67 goals per home game. At 2.34 goals per match league-wide, goals look scarce here.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTwo struggling sides with everything at stake and little to lose
Both teams sit on 4 points from 7 games with identical W1 D1 L5 records and 3-11 goals, 19th and 18th respectively. With 11 and 10 days' rest and one game each in a fortnight, there is no fatigue excuse either way.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPublished numbers look right; the over may even be a touch high
The 32% over-2.5 looks fair against the totals: 3+ goals in just 32% and both teams scoring only 40% of the time, with each side scoring 3 goals in 7 games.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Ghazl El Mehalla are slight favourites at 36%, with Abu Qair Semad on 33% and the draw on 31%. Abu Qair Semad are 19th and Ghazl El Mehalla 18th in the Egyptian Premier League. In their last five league games, Abu Qair Semad won none and Ghazl El Mehalla one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Abu Qair Semad win or draw
- 64%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 69%
- Ghazl El Mehalla win or draw
- 67%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 59%
- 3+ goals
- 32%
- 4+ goals
- 14%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 40%
- No
- 60%
We expect about 1.0 goals from Abu Qair Semad and 1.0 from Ghazl El Mehalla. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–1 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 0–0 (14%), 1–1 (14%), 1–0 (13%), 0–2 (7%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% | 31% | 36% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1971 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Abu Qair Semad: last 6
DLLLLL · 2 scored, 11 conceded
| 19 Oct | at AL Masry | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Oct | vs Asyut Petrol | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Sep | at Al Ahly | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Sep | at Zamalek SC | 0–2 | L |
| 2 Sep | vs Al Ittihad | 0–2 | L |
| 27 Aug | at Pyramids FC | 0–2 | L |
Last 3 at home: LLW
Ghazl El Mehalla: last 6
WLLLDL · 3 scored, 8 conceded
| 21 Oct | vs Al Ittihad | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Oct | at Smouha SC | 0–1 | L |
| 16 Sep | vs Zamalek SC | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Sep | at National Bank of Egypt | 1–3 | L |
| 1 Sep | vs Enppi | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Aug | at Future FC | 0–2 | L |
Last 3 away: LLL
Season stats
| Abu Qair Semad | Ghazl El Mehalla | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.43 | Goals scored per game | 0.43 |
| 1.57 | Goals conceded per game | 1.57 |
| 0.67 | Scored per game at home | 0.50 |
| 0.25 | Scored per game away | 0.33 |
| 14% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| 29% | Both teams scored | 29% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 14% |
| 57% | Failed to score | 71% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Egyptian Premier League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | El Geish | 7 | -6 | 7 | LLLDL |
| 16 | Asyut Petrol | 7 | -4 | 5 | LWLLL |
| 17 | Enppi | 7 | -7 | 4 | LLLWD |
| 18 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 7 | -8 | 4 | WLLLD |
| 19 | Abu Qair Semad | 7 | -8 | 4 | DLLLL |
| 20 | El Gouna FC | 7 | -6 | 2 | LLLLL |
Match context
- Rest days
- Abu Qair Semad 11Ghazl El Mehalla 10
- Matches in the last 14 days: Abu Qair Semad 1 · Ghazl El Mehalla 1
- Goals in this league
- Egyptian Premier League average: 2.34 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
