VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
VfB Stuttgart to win: 74%, about 3 in 4
Goals call4+ goals 55% · bookies 56% · ✓ 5 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers shifted away from the market by 6 points, favoring the home side due to the depth of Gladbach's off-pitch crisis. The Sceptic's view was not followed because it assumed Gladbach's defensive issues were already fully priced in.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think VfB Stuttgart's chances are better than the bookmakers say. The Sceptic thinks Borussia Mönchengladbach are underrated.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsStuttgart's full-strength XI faces a Gladbach side down ten players and one fit centre-back.
Gladbach are without ten players; Itakura, Kleindienst and Honorat are out, leaving Chiarodia (reported out, not confirmed by the club) as the only fit natural centre-back, flanked by Hashioka (reported out, not confirmed by the club) and Sander (reported out, not confirmed by the club) in a back three. Stuttgart name a full-strength 3-4-2-1 with Demirović, Stiller and Führich. Key duel: Stuttgart's runners behind a makeshift Gladbach back line.
VfB Stuttgart: clearly underrated
Med✗ Wrong The Dressing Room
mood and pressureGladbach sit bottom with 0 points from 6 games and risk a record 7th straight defeat to open a season. Off-pitch turmoil: club denies a 'broken dressing room', fans protest and want president Bonhof out. Stuttgart come off a Tuesday Champions League game vs Atlético.
VfB Stuttgart: clearly underrated
Fewer goalsMed✗ Wrong The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongGladbach's crisis is well known and already in the price - the number looks fair.
Blind model gives Stuttgart 62% vs market's 73.5% - the gap is the priced-in Gladbach crisis. Over 3.5: model 54% vs market 55.7%, essentially aligned. No pricing edge found.
Borussia Mönchengladbach: slightly underrated
Low✓ Right AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
VfB Stuttgart hosts Borussia Mönchengladbach in a match featuring a significant disparity in form. Gladbach is struggling through a deep crisis and severe defensive injuries, while Stuttgart enters the game with a solid record.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- VfB Stuttgart win or draw
- 89%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 85%
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win or draw
- 26%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 90%
- 3+ goals
- 75%
- 4+ goals
- 55%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 62%
- No
- 38%
We expect about 2.9 goals from VfB Stuttgart and 1.1 from Borussia Mönchengladbach. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 3–1 (8%), 2–0 (8%), 3–0 (8%), 1–1 (6%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 4+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 73% | 15% | 11% | 56% |
| Goals model | 62% | 19% | 19% | 54% |
| AI analysts | 68% | 17% | 15% | 53% |
| Our forecast | 74% | 15% | 11% | 55% |
Verdict: Our final probabilities shift away from the market by favoring the home side due to the depth of Gladbach's off-pitch crisis. The Sceptic's view was not followed because it assumed Gladbach's defensive issues were already fully priced in.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 71% | 16% | 13% | Stats preview | #595 | |
| 2 | 73% | 15% | 11% | Prices moved | #672 | |
| 3 | 74% | 15% | 11% | Full analysis | #673 | |
| 4 | 74% | 15% | 11% | Official lineups | #767 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 4 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
VfB Stuttgart: last 6
DLWWLL · 7 scored, 5 conceded
| 20 Oct | vs Atletico Madrid UEFA Champions League | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | at Hamburger SV | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Oct | at Slovan Bratislava UEFA Champions League | 3–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at SC Paderborn 07 | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Borussia Dortmund | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | at 1899 Hoffenheim | 1–2 | L |
Last 4 at home: DLWW
Borussia Mönchengladbach: last 6
LLLLLL · 8 scored, 20 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs 1899 Hoffenheim | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | at 1. FC Köln | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs FSV Mainz 05 | 3–4 | L |
| 12 Sep | at SC Freiburg | 0–5 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs SV Elversberg | 3–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | at RB Leipzig | 0–3 | L |
Last 4 away: LLLW
Season stats
| VfB Stuttgart | Borussia Mönchengladbach | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.33 | Goals scored per game | 1.33 |
| 1.67 | Goals conceded per game | 3.33 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 2.33 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 0.33 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 100% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 17% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 33% |
League matches only, 6 games each.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 7 | -3 | 8 | DLWLD |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | -3 | 8 | WDLWL |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | -7 | 8 | LWLDW |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 7 | -3 | 6 | LLWLL |
| 16 | FC Schalke 04 | 7 | -3 | 6 | DLLDW |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | -12 | 6 | DDWLL |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | -11 | 3 | WLLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: VfB Stuttgart won 4, Borussia Mönchengladbach 2, 0 draws; 3.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0–3 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 30 Aug 2025 | VfB Stuttgart | 1–0 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga |
| 1 Feb 2025 | VfB Stuttgart | 1–2 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga |
| 14 Sep 2024 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1–3 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 18 May 2024 | VfB Stuttgart | 4–0 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga |
| 14 Jan 2024 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3–1 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 41D. Seimen
Defenders
- 22L. Assignon
- 29Finn Jeltsch
- 3R. Hendriks
- 7M. Mittelstädt
Midfielders
- 6A. Stiller
- 16A. Karazor
- 44L. Sauer
- 17D. Pejčinović
- 10C. Führich
Forward
- 9E. Demirović
Substitutes (9)
- 2A. Al Dakhil
- 1F. Bredlow
- 24J. Chabot
- 18J. Leweling
- 21G. Prömel
- 47Y. Spalt
- 20L. Stergiou
- 26D. Undav
- 11B. El Khannouss
Goalkeeper
- 1M. Nicolas
Defenders
- 14D. Hashioka
- 16P. Sander
- 2F. Chiarodia
Midfielders
- 29J. Scally
- 47Z. Uno
- 10F. Neuhaus
- 26L. Ullrich
- 38H. Bolin
- 36W. Mohya
Forward
- 18S. Machino
Substitutes (9)
- 7K. Stöger
- 48Lion Schweers
- 34M. Nguefack
- 22Y. Konoplya
- 20D. Herold
- 25R. Hack
- 39I. M. Danfa
- 33D. Batz
- 35J. Uwakhonye
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutJ. DiehlMuscle
- OutN. NarteyThigh
- OutT. TomasMuscle
Show 2 more
- OutJ. VagnomanMuscle
- OutD. ZagadouMuscle
- OutJ. CastropShoulder
- OutF. FleckMuscle
- OutF. HonoratMuscle
Show 6 more
- OutK. ItakuraAnkle
- OutT. KleindienstMuscle
- OutN. KuhnMuscle
- OutE. LeopoldKnee
- OutJ. LeszczynskiKnee
- OutI. LidbergThigh
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Gladbach has lost every Bundesliga match this season, currently occupying the bottom of the table.[1][2]
- The Gladbach defense is heavily compromised, with reports indicating only one fit natural centre-back available.[1][2]
Sources
- bulinews.com – Borussia Mönchengladbach dealt late defensive blow ahead of Stuttgart clash - Bulinews (2026-10-23)
- onefootball.com – Kevin Diks ‘to miss’ Stuttgart trip, Gladbach down to one centre-back - OneFootball (2026-10-23)
Match context
- Rest days
- VfB Stuttgart 2Borussia Mönchengladbach 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: VfB Stuttgart 4 · Borussia Mönchengladbach 2
- Referee
- Matthias Jollenbeck
- Goals in this league
- Bundesliga average: 3.69 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
