RB Leipzig vs SV Elversberg prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
RB Leipzig to win: 68%, about 2 in 3
Goals call4+ goals 55% · bookies 56% · ✓ 4 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers', moving just one point from the home win to the draw (68/18/14) because Leipzig's home record outweighs rotation and fatigue concerns. The Dressing Room's 2-point shift towards the draw was not fully followed, as Elversberg's own midfield doubts and Leipzig's unbeaten home record cap the adjustment.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Dressing Room thinks a draw is underrated; The Sceptic thinks SV Elversberg are underrated.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsLeipzig's deeper squad should absorb rotation and absences better than Elversberg's stretched midfield.
Leipzig are without Ouédraogo and Guiu, with Nkunku (reported out, not confirmed by the club) a game-time decision after missing Friday training; Baumgartner returns for planned second-half minutes. Demichelis will rotate but not make 11 changes. Elversberg miss Zimmerschied, with Campbell (reported out, not confirmed by the club), Darvich and Onyeka all doubtful in midfield.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureWounded Leipzig still strong at home, but rotation and pressure open the door for confident Elversberg.
Elversberg sit 6th with 10 points as the best-performing promoted side and just won 4-3 at Augsburg.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe only previous meetings came in 3. Liga 2013/14, one win apiece. Matches in this competition average 3.71 goals, and the total line sits above the season norm.
SV Elversberg: slightly underrated
Low✗ Wrong AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Leipzig host sixth-placed Elversberg after heavy defeats to Bayern München and Real Madrid, with rotation confirmed and Nkunku doubtful. The visitors, the best-performing promoted side, arrive off a 4-3 win over Augsburg. Leipzig remain strong favourites on their home record.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- RB Leipzig win or draw
- 86%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 82%
- SV Elversberg win or draw
- 32%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 90%
- 3+ goals
- 75%
- 4+ goals
- 55%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 65%
- No
- 35%
We expect about 2.7 goals from RB Leipzig and 1.2 from SV Elversberg. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 3–1 (8%), 2–0 (7%), 3–0 (7%), 1–1 (7%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 4+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 69% | 17% | 14% | 56% |
| Goals model | 55% | 20% | 25% | 61% |
| AI analysts | 58% | 20% | 22% | 58% |
| Our forecast | 68% | 18% | 14% | 55% |
Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the market: Leipzig's perfect home record supports favouritism, but confirmed rotation, Nkunku's doubt and the pressure after two heavy defeats offset Elversberg's midfield availability problems, leaving only a small shift towards the draw.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 68% | 18% | 14% | Stats preview | #697 | |
| 2 | 68% | 18% | 14% | Full analysis | #871 | |
| 3 | 68% | 18% | 14% | Updated news and prices | #1034 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
RB Leipzig: last 6
LLWWLW · 14 scored, 12 conceded
| 21 Oct | at Real Madrid UEFA Champions League | 1–4 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Bayern München | 1–6 | L |
| 13 Oct | vs PSV Eindhoven UEFA Champions League | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | 6–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Bayer Leverkusen | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Hamburger SV | 5–0 | W |
Last 4 at home: WWWW
SV Elversberg: last 6
WLDLWW · 12 scored, 11 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs FC Augsburg | 4–3 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Union Berlin | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | at FC Schalke 04 | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Bayern München | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sep | at Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4–3 | W |
| 29 Aug | vs Bayer Leverkusen | 3–2 | W |
Last 4 away: LDWW
Season stats
| RB Leipzig | SV Elversberg | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.67 | Goals scored per game | 2.00 |
| 1.83 | Goals conceded per game | 1.83 |
| 4.67 | Scored per game at home | 2.67 |
| 0.67 | Scored per game away | 1.33 |
| 83% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| 33% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 17% | Failed to score | 33% |
League matches only, 6 games each.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bayern München | 6 | +17 | 14 | WDWWD |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 6 | +9 | 13 | LWDWW |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | +4 | 13 | LWWWD |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 7 | +9 | 12 | WLWLW |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | +1 | 12 | WDDWD |
| 7 | FSV Mainz 05 | 7 | +3 | 10 | LWLWL |
| 8 | SV Elversberg | 7 | -3 | 10 | LWLDL |
| 9 | FC Augsburg | 7 | +4 | 9 | DLDLD |
| 10 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 7 | +0 | 9 | WWLLW |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 7 | -10 | 9 | LWWWL |
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: RB Leipzig won 1, SV Elversberg 1, 0 draws; 1.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Mar 2014 | RB Leipzig | 2–0 | SV Elversberg | 3. Liga |
| 7 Sep 2013 | SV Elversberg | 1–0 | RB Leipzig | 3. Liga |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1Ø. Nyland
Defenders
- 39B. Henrichs
- 4W. Orbán
- 3M. Estève
- 35Max Finkgräfe
Midfielders
- 30A. MaksimoviÄ
- 20R. Reitz
- 21N. El Aynaoui
- 6E. Banzuzi
- 7A. Nusa
Forward
- 27T. Gomis
Substitutes (9)
- 17R. Baku
- 14C. Baumgartner
- 10B. Gruda
- 2A. Koné
- 23C. Lukeba
- 22D. Raum
- 40Rômulo
- 13N. Seiwald
- 26M. Vandevoordt
Goalkeeper
- 20N. Kristof
Defenders
- 30J. Gyamerah
- 19L. Pinckert
- 31M. Rohr
- 21L. Günther
Midfielders
- 43F. Keidel
- 8Ł. Poręba
- 25L. Petkov
- 17F. Schmahl
- 7M. Krattenmacher
Forward
- 42D. Mokwa
Substitutes (9)
- 15R. Adam
- 28T. Boss
- 39William Cole Campbell
- 6A. Condé
- 9N. Futkeu
- 3F. Le Joncour
- 2N. Mickelson
- 40Francis-Ikechukwu Onyeka
- 26L. Sirch
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutM. GuiuHamstring
- OutC. NkunkuGroin
- OutA. OuedraogoShoulder
- OutN. DarvichInjury
- OutL. SeifertAnkle
- OutT. ZimmerschiedAnkle
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Leipzig sit 7th with 9 points from 6 games and are unbeaten at home this season (W3 D0 L0), while all three league defeats have come away.[1][3]
- Leipzig lost their last two matches, conceding 10 goals across the defeats to Bayern München and Real Madrid.[1][2][4]
- Elversberg are 6th with 10 points from 6 games, above Leipzig, and beat FC Augsburg 4-3 in their most recent league match.[1][3][5]
- Coach Martín Demichelis confirmed he will rotate his side to manage fatigue from three games in quick succession.[4]
- Elversberg are known for high-intensity starts, something Demichelis has specifically warned about.[4][5]
- Elversberg are in their debut Bundesliga season and were pre-season relegation favourites.[1][3][5]
- Leipzig won their two matches before the recent defeats, including 6-0 against Eintracht Frankfurt.[1][2]
Sources
- bulinews.com – RB Leipzig vs. SV Elversberg Preview: Hosts aim to recover from heavy defeats to superpowers - Bulinews (2026-10-24)
- sports.yahoo.com – Leipzig Face Nkunku Injury Scare Ahead Of Elversberg Clash - Yahoo Sports (2026-10-23)
- onefootball.com – RB Leipzig v SV Elversberg: Hosts target home reset after bruising Bayern and Real losses - OneFootball (2026-10-23)
- roundtable.io – Demichelis Plans Leipzig Shakeup After Bayern And Madrid Defeats - roundtable.io (2026-10-23)
- roundtable.io – From Fourth Division To Bundesliga, Elversberg's Incredible Rise - roundtable.io (2026-10-23)
Match context
- Rest days
- RB Leipzig 2SV Elversberg 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: RB Leipzig 4 · SV Elversberg 1
- Referee
- Bastian Dankert
- Goals in this league
- Bundesliga average: 3.71 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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