SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburg SV prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Paderborn 07 to win: 40%, about 2 in 5
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers', with only a one-point shift toward Hamburg following The Sceptic's view on away strength. The Coach and The Dressing Room both agreed with the market, and we follow that balance, since Paderborn's home record against Hamburg offsets Hamburg's momentum.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsHSV's superior squad depth and tactical flexibility provide the necessary edge.
Paderborn is dealing with multiple absences, including Sebastian Klaas and Oliver Batista Meier. HSV has key players returning, such as Sambi Lokonga and El Ouahdi. HSV has also experimented with a system featuring three holding midfielders, demonstrating tactical adaptability.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureThree straight wins against one win in six points to the away side.
Hamburg arrive on a run of three league wins after losing their opening three, while Paderborn have taken 5 points from 6 games with just one victory.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHSV's recent defensive improvements and strong away form make them difficult to beat.
Paderborn sits in the relegation playoff spot, while HSV is in 9th place, targeting a fourth straight win. Paderborn's coach has confirmed that striker Steffen Tigges will keep his starting place.
Paderborn 07: slightly overrated
More goalsLow AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Hamburg arrive on a three-match winning run and sit 9th, while Paderborn occupy the relegation playoff spot with five points from six games. Paderborn carry a strong recent head-to-head record, but a long injury list limits their options. Our numbers stay close to the market, with a small tilt toward the visitors.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- SC Paderborn 07 win or draw
- 67%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Hamburg SV win or draw
- 60%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 70%
- 3+ goals
- 44%
- 4+ goals
- 23%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 1.3 goals from SC Paderborn 07 and 1.2 from Hamburg SV. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (10%), 0–0 (9%), 2–1 (8%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 41% | 27% | 32% | 60% |
| AI analysts | 33% | 28% | 39% | 65% |
| Our forecast | 40% | 27% | 33% | – |
Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the market because Paderborn's home advantage and head-to-head edge roughly balance Hamburg's superior form and returning players.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% | 25% | 33% | Stats preview | #701 | |
| 2 | 40% | 27% | 33% | Full analysis | #876 | |
| 3 | 40% | 27% | 33% | Updated news and prices | #1032 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
SC Paderborn 07: last 6
DLWLLD · 5 scored, 9 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Werder Bremen | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs VfB Stuttgart | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs 1899 Hoffenheim | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Borussia Dortmund | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs SC Freiburg | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | at FSV Mainz 05 | 0–0 | D |
Last 3 at home: LWL
Hamburg SV: last 6
WWWLLL · 6 scored, 15 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs VfB Stuttgart | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at 1899 Hoffenheim | 3–2 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs 1. FC Köln | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | at RB Leipzig | 0–5 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs FSV Mainz 05 | 0–5 | L |
| 29 Aug | at Borussia Dortmund | 0–2 | L |
Last 4 away: WLLW
Season stats
| SC Paderborn 07 | Hamburg SV | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.83 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded per game | 2.50 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 0.67 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| 33% | Both teams scored | 33% |
| 17% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 67% | Failed to score | 50% |
League matches only, 6 games each.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | SV Elversberg | 7 | -3 | 10 | LWLDL |
| 9 | FC Augsburg | 7 | +4 | 9 | DLDLD |
| 10 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 7 | +0 | 9 | WWLLW |
| 11 | Hamburg SV | 7 | -10 | 9 | LWWWL |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 7 | -3 | 8 | DLWLD |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | -3 | 8 | WDLWL |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | -7 | 8 | LWLDW |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 7 | -3 | 6 | LLWLL |
| 16 | FC Schalke 04 | 7 | -3 | 6 | DLLDW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: SC Paderborn 07 won 3, Hamburg SV 1, 2 draws; 3.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Mar 2025 | SC Paderborn 07 | 2–0 | Hamburg SV | 2. Bundesliga |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Hamburg SV | 2–2 | SC Paderborn 07 | 2. Bundesliga |
| 10 May 2024 | SC Paderborn 07 | 1–0 | Hamburg SV | 2. Bundesliga |
| 9 Dec 2023 | Hamburg SV | 1–2 | SC Paderborn 07 | 2. Bundesliga |
| 5 May 2023 | Hamburg SV | 2–2 | SC Paderborn 07 | 2. Bundesliga |
| 30 Oct 2022 | SC Paderborn 07 | 2–3 | Hamburg SV | 2. Bundesliga |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 15N. Noll
Defenders
- 21J. ter Horst
- 25T. Scheller
- 22M. Hansen
Midfielders
- 17L. Curda
- 28L. Ulrich
- 5S. Castañeda
- 40G. Vidović
- 23R. Obermair
Forwards
- 30S. Marino
- 27S. Tigges
Substitutes (9)
- 6T. Baack
- 20F. Götze
- 11S. Michel
- 2Ruben Müller
- 9R. Philippe
- 18M. Pieringer
- 1M. Schubert
- 3Jonah Benedict Sticker
- 38D. Zeitler
Goalkeeper
- 1Daniel Heuer Fernandes
Defenders
- 43S. Nandja
- 33S. Bornauw
- 17W. Omari
Midfielders
- 7Z. El Ouahdi
- 5M. Adeline
- 4B. Nadir
- 28M. Muheim
- 3D. Møller Wolfe
Forwards
- 15Y. Poulsen
- 20Fábio Vieira
Substitutes (9)
- 38Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit
- 19Otto Emerson Stange
- 12S. Tangvik
- 9T. Moffi
- 6A. Sambi Lokonga
- 37L. Lemke
- 11A. Grønbæk
- 48J. Bissi Mouelle
- 22Kofi Jeremy Amoako
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutN. Awortwie-GrantKnee
- OutO. Batista MeierAnkle
- OutT. GayretKnee
Show 2 more
- OutM. HoffmeierMuscle
- OutS. KlaasMuscle
- OutN. CapaldoMuscle
- OutN. RembergKnee
- OutM. VuskovicDoping
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Paderborn are 16th with 5 points from 6 games and sit in the relegation playoff spot.[1][2]
- Hamburg are 9th with 9 points and target a fourth successive league win.[1][2]
- Paderborn drew 2-2 at Werder Bremen last time out, with Tigges (reported out, not confirmed by the club) among the scorers.[1][2][3]
- Coach Ralf Kettemann confirmed striker Steffen Tigges will keep his starting place after his goal and assist at Bremen.[3]
- Paderborn face a congested spell with league games around a DFB-Pokal tie against Stuttgart.[1][2]
Sources
- onefootball.com – Paderborn vs. Hamburger SV preview: Visitors targeting fourth successive win - OneFootball (2026-10-23)
- bulinews.com – Paderborn vs. Hamburger SV preview: Visitors targeting fourth successive win - Bulinews (2026-10-23)
- sports.yahoo.com – Paderborn celebrate revival of 28-year-old striker Steffen Tigges: “Tiggi 2.0” - Yahoo Sports (2026-10-22)
Match context
- Rest days
- SC Paderborn 07 7Hamburg SV 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: SC Paderborn 07 1 · Hamburg SV 1
- Referee
- Martin Petersen
- Goals in this league
- Bundesliga average: 3.71 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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