TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Bayer Leverkusen to win: 46%, about 1 in 2
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers', with a three-point shift from Leverkusen to Hoffenheim because of the visitors' midweek Europa League exertions and likely rotation. The Sceptic's view was followed in this small adjustment, while The Coach and The Dressing Room backed the market and were not followed on that point.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think TSG Hoffenheim's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make TSG Hoffenheim favourites.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsBayer Leverkusen's strong attacking form and quality should allow them to secure the victory.
Leverkusen is in excellent form, having won their last six matches in all competitions. Hoffenheim is 14th in the table and has suffered two home defeats this season. Both teams played in the Europa League on Thursday, meaning both squads may be rotated or fatigued.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureLeverkusen's consistent winning momentum makes them the stronger side heading into this fixture.
Bayer Leverkusen is in excellent form, having secured six straight wins in all competitions. Hoffenheim recently defeated Lyon 3-0 in the Europa League. Both teams are managing the physical demands of midweek European fixtures.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongTSG Hoffenheim is slightly underrated, though Bayer Leverkusen's attacking strength may prove decisive.
TSG Hoffenheim is 14th in the table with 6 points, while Bayer Leverkusen is 4th with 13 points. Both clubs played in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, which may influence squad rotation and physical condition. Leverkusen's consistent scoring is a key factor.
TSG Hoffenheim: slightly underrated
Low✓ Right AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Both played in Europe on Thursday, so rotation is likely on both sides. Leverkusen remain favourites, though Hoffenheim's recent home scoring gives them some hope.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- TSG Hoffenheim win or draw
- 54%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Bayer Leverkusen win or draw
- 70%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 80%
- 3+ goals
- 58%
- 4+ goals
- 36%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 60%
- No
- 40%
We expect about 1.3 goals from TSG Hoffenheim and 1.7 from Bayer Leverkusen. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 2–1 (7%), 0–2 (7%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 29% | 23% | 49% | 74% |
| AI analysts | 29% | 28% | 43% | 69% |
| Our forecast | 30% | 24% | 46% | – |
Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the market, with only a small shift of three percentage points from the away side to Hoffenheim to reflect the possible rotation and fatigue Leverkusen carry after Thursday's match.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% | 20% | 40% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1106 | |
| 2 | 32% | 23% | 45% | Prices moved | #1284 | |
| 3 | 32% | 24% | 44% | Full analysis | #1362 | |
| 4 | 30% | 24% | 46% | Official lineups | #1436 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 4 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
TSG Hoffenheim: last 6
WWLLLL · 10 scored, 12 conceded
| 22 Oct | vs Lyon UEFA Europa League | 3–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | at Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2–1 | W |
| 15 Oct | vs Beşiktaş UEFA Europa League | 2–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Hamburger SV | 2–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | at SC Paderborn 07 | 1–3 | L |
| 17 Sep | at OFI UEFA Europa League | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: WLLWL
Bayer Leverkusen: last 6
WWWWWW · 16 scored, 4 conceded
| 22 Oct | at OFI UEFA Europa League | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs SC Freiburg | 2–1 | W |
| 15 Oct | at Lech Poznan UEFA Europa League | 4–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at FSV Mainz 05 | 4–3 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs RB Leipzig | 2–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | vs Celje UEFA Europa League | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 away: WWWDL
Season stats
| TSG Hoffenheim | Bayer Leverkusen | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.83 | Goals scored per game | 2.67 |
| 2.33 | Goals conceded per game | 1.50 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 2.67 |
| 1.67 | Scored per game away | 2.67 |
| 100% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 83% |
| 100% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 6 games each.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | +8 | 17 | WDDWW |
| 2 | Bayern München | 6 | +17 | 14 | WDWWD |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 6 | +9 | 13 | LWDWW |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | +4 | 13 | LWWWD |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 7 | +9 | 12 | WLWLW |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | +1 | 12 | WDDWD |
| 7 | FSV Mainz 05 | 7 | +3 | 10 | LWLWL |
| 8 | SV Elversberg | 7 | -3 | 10 | LWLDL |
| 9 | FC Augsburg | 7 | +4 | 9 | DLDLD |
| 10 | TSG Hoffenheim | 7 | +0 | 9 | WWLLW |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 7 | -10 | 9 | LWWWL |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 7 | -3 | 8 | DLWLD |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | -3 | 8 | WDLWL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: TSG Hoffenheim won 2, Bayer Leverkusen 4, 0 draws; 3.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jan 2026 | TSG Hoffenheim | 1–0 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1–2 | TSG Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 2 Feb 2025 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3–1 | TSG Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 14 Sep 2024 | TSG Hoffenheim | 1–4 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 30 Mar 2024 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2–1 | TSG Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 4 Nov 2023 | TSG Hoffenheim | 2–3 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1O. Baumann
Defenders
- 34V. Coufal
- 5O. Kabak
- 28K. Machida
- 39M. Rots
Midfielders
- 7L. Avdullahu
- 18W. Burger
- 22A. Prass
- 10A. Hložek
- 14A. Daghim
Forward
- 11F. Asllani
Substitutes (9)
- 29Natnael Abraha
- 13Bernardo
- 20B. Conté
- 15V. Gendrey
- 2R. Hranáč
- 27A. Kramarić
- 32Cajetan Benjamin Lenz
- 9Max Moerstedt
- 37L. Philipp
Goalkeeper
- 1M. Flekken
Defenders
- 4J. Quansah
- 12E. Tapsoba
- 2F. Medina
- 3Miguel Gutiérrez
Midfielders
- 24Aleix García
- 6E. Fernández
- 19M. Diaby
- 30I. Maza
- 23N. Tella
Forward
- 14P. Schick
Substitutes (9)
- 10M. Tillman
- 15T. Oermann
- 9Afonso Moreira
- 17Lucas Vázquez
- 7J. Hofmann
- 22V. Boniface
- 28J. Blaswich
- 5L. Badé
- 8R. Andrich
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutN. De CatKnee
- OutA. HajdariFoot
- OutP. WimmerThigh
- OutE. Ben SeghirMuscle
- OutG. DoueCalf
- OutK. EichhornIllness
Show 3 more
- OutC. KofaneMuscle
- OutM. TerrierMuscle
- DoubtM. CulbreathFoot
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Leverkusen are 4th with 13 points from 6 league games and have won six straight matches in all competitions since the opening-day defeat.[2]
- Hoffenheim beat Lyon 3-0 at home on Thursday, with Kramaric scoring once and providing two assists.[4]
- Hoffenheim won 2-1 away at Borussia Mönchengladbach in their most recent league game.[2]
- Leverkusen came from behind to beat then-leaders Freiburg 2-1 last weekend and won 2-0 at OFI in the Europa League on Thursday.[2]
- Schick has scored in each of Leverkusen's first six Bundesliga matchdays this season.[2]
- Hoffenheim's coach Christian Ilzer may rotate his side after Thursday's European win, and ex-Leverkusen forward Hlozek is pushing to start.[2]
- Leverkusen's coach Carles Martinez made five changes in Crete, with Flekken, Tapsoba, Diaby and Maza likely to return here.[2]
Sources
- onefootball.com – Hoffenheim v Leverkusen preview as in-form visitors meet improving hosts - OneFootball (2026-10-24)
- bulinews.com – TSG Hoffenheim vs. Bayer Leverkusen preview: In-form Werkself face improving Hoffenheim - Bulinews (2026-10-24)
- sportnewsafrica.com – Hoffenheim–Lyon: Kramarić strikes as possession fails to protect OL · SNA - Sport News Africa (2026-10-23)
Match context
- Rest days
- TSG Hoffenheim 2Bayer Leverkusen 2
- Matches in the last 14 days: TSG Hoffenheim 3 · Bayer Leverkusen 3
- Referee
- Daniel Siebert
- Goals in this league
- Bundesliga average: 3.56 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
