FC Cologne vs Schalke 04 prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Cologne to win: 46%, about 1 in 2
The Verdict
Our probabilities stay close to the bookmakers', with no shift applied since all three analysts agreed with the market. The Sceptic's suggestion of a higher over 2.5 probability was not followed, because our data feed provides no over 2.5 line to adjust.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsThe depleted squads will likely lead to an open and high-scoring contest.
FC Köln has five key players out, including Dallinga and Ache (a doubt). Schalke 04 also lists five major injuries, including Wöber, who is expected to miss the remainder of the calendar year. Köln is unbeaten at home this term, but both sides are fighting to avoid relegation.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureFC Köln's home advantage and motivation should see them secure a vital win.
FC Köln is fighting to distance themselves from the relegation zone. Schalke 04 is desperate to avoid a third consecutive loss and prevent falling into the bottom three. The match is played at RheinEnergieStadion.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongFC Köln's home unbeaten run this term provides a significant advantage over struggling Schalke.
FC Köln is currently 12th in the BL1, while FC Schalke 04 is 15th. Schalke is desperate to avoid a third consecutive loss.
AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Both sides sit in the lower half with heavy injury lists, but Cologne are unbeaten at home this season while Schalke have lost two straight. The market and our numbers agree on a narrow home edge, with a draw also live given both teams' absences.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- FC Cologne win or draw
- 72%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Schalke 04 win or draw
- 54%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 74%
- 3+ goals
- 49%
- 4+ goals
- 27%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 53%
- No
- 47%
We expect about 1.5 goals from FC Cologne and 1.1 from Schalke 04. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 0–1 (8%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 46% | 26% | 28% | 57% |
| AI analysts | 42% | 27% | 31% | 65% |
| Our forecast | 46% | 26% | 28% | – |
Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the market because Cologne's strong home record is largely offset by their long absence list and Schalke's away win this season.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% | 25% | 28% | Stats preview | #698 | |
| 2 | 47% | 25% | 28% | Full analysis | #873 | |
| 3 | 46% | 26% | 28% | Updated news and prices | #1038 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
FC Cologne: last 6
LWLDLW · 8 scored, 11 conceded
| 16 Oct | at Eintracht Frankfurt | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Hamburger SV | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Werder Bremen | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Sep | at VfB Stuttgart | 1–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs 1899 Hoffenheim | 3–2 | W |
Last 3 at home: WDW
Schalke 04: last 6
LLDWDL · 4 scored, 7 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs FSV Mainz 05 | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | at SC Freiburg | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs SV Elversberg | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Sep | at Union Berlin | 3–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Bayern München | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | at FC Augsburg | 0–3 | L |
Last 4 away: LWLW
Season stats
| FC Cologne | Schalke 04 | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.33 | Goals scored per game | 0.67 |
| 1.83 | Goals conceded per game | 1.17 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 0.00 |
| 0.67 | Scored per game away | 1.33 |
| 67% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 83% | Both teams scored | 33% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 17% | Failed to score | 67% |
League matches only, 6 games each.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | FC Augsburg | 7 | +4 | 9 | DLDLD |
| 10 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 7 | +0 | 9 | WWLLW |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 7 | -10 | 9 | LWWWL |
| 12 | FC Cologne | 7 | -3 | 8 | DLWLD |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | -3 | 8 | WDLWL |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | -7 | 8 | LWLDW |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 7 | -3 | 6 | LLWLL |
| 16 | Schalke 04 | 7 | -3 | 6 | DLLDW |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | -12 | 6 | DDWLL |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | -11 | 3 | WLLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: FC Cologne won 4, Schalke 04 0, 2 draws; 2.3 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Feb 2025 | FC Cologne | 1–0 | Schalke 04 | 2. Bundesliga |
| 1 Sep 2024 | Schalke 04 | 1–3 | FC Cologne | 2. Bundesliga |
| 29 Jan 2023 | Schalke 04 | 0–0 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 7 Aug 2022 | FC Cologne | 3–1 | Schalke 04 | Bundesliga |
| 27 Jan 2022 | FC Cologne | 2–2 | Schalke 04 | Friendlies Clubs |
| 22 May 2021 | FC Cologne | 1–0 | Schalke 04 | Bundesliga |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1M. Schwäbe
Defenders
- 28S. Sebulonsen
- 22Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
- 24L. Lochoshvili
- 3B. Sosa
Midfielders
- 8Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson
- 5T. Krauß
- 37L. Maina
- 47M. Moore
- 10S. El Mala
Forward
- 30M. Bülter
Substitutes (9)
- 17A. Castro-Montes
- 11Reigan Heskey
- 14G. Mensah
- 23Paul Michael Junior Okon-Engstler
- 2J. Schmied
- 29J. Thielmann
- 7L. Waldschmidt
- 20R. Zieler
- 19M. El Mala
Goalkeeper
- 1L. Karius
Defenders
- 5T. Becker
- 25N. Katić
- 4H. Kuruçay
Midfielders
- 29J. Dina Ebimbe
- 23S. El-Faouzi
- 13S. Tanaka
- 8R. Gosens
- 20J. Adamu
- 24A. Aouchiche
Forward
- 7Hwang Hee-Chan
Substitutes (9)
- 33Vitalie Becker
- 10E. Džeko
- 11B. Lasme
- 22K. Müller
- 35J. Ndiaye
- 27F. Porath
- 38L. Vozar
- 14J. Bachmann
- 43M. Ayhan
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutR. AcheThigh
- OutT. DallingaKnee
- OutT. HubersKnee
Show 3 more
- OutI. RondicInjury
- OutE. SkhiriAnkle
- OutR. van den BergMuscle
- OutK. KaramanMuscle
- OutD. LjubicicKnee
- OutR. SchallenbergLeg
Show 2 more
- OutM. SyllaLeg
- OutM. WoberMuscle
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Cologne are 12th with 7 points from 6 games and unbeaten at home this season (two wins, one draw).[4][6]
- Schalke are 15th with 5 points, only above the relegation zone on goal difference.[4]
- Schalke have lost their last two league games, including 0-1 at home to Mainz.[4]
- Cologne lost 0-1 at Eintracht Frankfurt in their most recent match.[4]
- Both teams have five players each ruled out through injury.[4][6][7]
- Schalke have won once away from home this season.[4]
Sources
- rotowire.com – Joel Schmied Injury: Resumes partial team training - RotoWire
- sportsmole.co.uk – Preview: FC Koln vs Schalke 04 - prediction, team news, lineups
- bulinews.com – 1. FC Köln vs Schalke Preview: Newcomers to face side unbeaten at home - Bulinews (2026-10-23)
- getfootballnewsgermany.com – Schalke 04’s jinxed Maximilian Wöber suffers another injury setback - Get German Football News (2026-10-22)
Match context
- Rest days
- FC Cologne 7Schalke 04 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: FC Cologne 2 · Schalke 04 2
- Referee
- Harm Osmers
- Goals in this league
- Bundesliga average: 3.71 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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