SC Freiburg vs Bayern München prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Bayern München to win: 61%, about 3 in 5
We're noticeably less confident in Bayern München than the bookmakers (4 percentage points): Freiburg's perfect home record meets a Bayern side missing several regulars and their head coach. Why
The Verdict
The market's 65% for Bayern stays close to our 62% after a small shade towards Freiburg following The Sceptic's 4-point case on home form and Bayern's absences. The Coach's view that Bayern's remaining spine still caps the downside was not fully followed, because the depth of absences plus the head coach situation at a ground Bayern have not won at since 2015 justified trimming the away number.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think SC Freiburg's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make SC Freiburg favourites.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsDepleted Bayern still edge it, but Freiburg at home can punish a makeshift XI
Olise returns from suspension to join Kane and Gnabry. Freiburg are nearly at full strength, with Lienhart fit to start.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureBayern's class shows, but Freiburg's home form and Bayern's turmoil keep this tight and high-scoring.
Bayern sit on a 49-game Bundesliga unbeaten run with 22 goals in six games, fresh off a 6-1 win over Leipzig.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongSC Freiburg is undervalued given its strong home form against a significantly depleted Bayern squad.
SC Freiburg maintains a strong home record, having won all five competitive matches at Europa-Park Stadion. Bayern faces major challenges, including the absence of Manuel Neuer and Joshua Kimmich.
Freiburg: clearly underrated
More goalsMed AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Freiburg, unbeaten at home this season and third in the table, host a Bayern side missing several regulars and without their head coach after his collapse in training. Bayern remain unbeaten in the Bundesliga, but their depleted squad gives Freiburg a live chance.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- SC Freiburg win or draw
- 38%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 80%
- Bayern München win or draw
- 81%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 86%
- 3+ goals
- 66%
- 4+ goals
- 45%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 62%
- No
- 38%
We expect about 1.2 goals from SC Freiburg and 2.2 from Bayern München. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–2 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (9%), 0–2 (8%), 0–1 (7%), 1–3 (7%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 4+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 17% | 18% | 65% | 52% |
| AI analysts | 23% | 23% | 54% | 85% |
| Our forecast | 19% | 20% | 62% | – |
Verdict: We stay close to the market but shade a few points from Bayern towards Freiburg and the draw, reflecting the scale of Bayern's absences, the absence of their head coach and Freiburg's perfect home record, while Bayern's 49-game unbeaten league run keeps them clearly favoured.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% | 21% | 33% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1150 | |
| 2 | 14% | 17% | 69% | Prices moved | #1304 | |
| 3 | 18% | 19% | 63% | Full analysis | #1375 | |
| 4 | 19% | 20% | 62% | Official lineups | #1474 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 4 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
SC Freiburg: last 6
LLWWDW · 13 scored, 10 conceded
| 22 Oct | at Monaco UEFA Europa Conference League | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Oct | at Bayer Leverkusen | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Oct | vs FK Jablonec UEFA Europa Conference League | 3–2 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs FC Schalke 04 | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Eintracht Frankfurt | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWWWW
Bayern München: last 6
DWDDWW · 22 scored, 9 conceded
| 21 Oct | vs Arsenal UEFA Champions League | 2–2 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs RB Leipzig | 6–1 | W |
| 13 Oct | at Viking UEFA Champions League | 3–3 | D |
| 10 Oct | at FC Augsburg | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Sep | vs Union Berlin | 7–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | at SV Elversberg | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 away: DDWDW
Season stats
| SC Freiburg | Bayern München | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.50 | Goals scored per game | 3.67 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 0.83 |
| 3.67 | Scored per game at home | 6.00 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game away | 1.33 |
| 83% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 83% |
| 67% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 17% |
League matches only, 6 games each.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | +8 | 17 | WDDWW |
| 2 | Bayern München | 6 | +17 | 14 | WDWWD |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 6 | +9 | 13 | LWDWW |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | +4 | 13 | LWWWD |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 7 | +9 | 12 | WLWLW |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | +1 | 12 | WDDWD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: SC Freiburg won 0, Bayern München 5, 1 draw; 4.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Apr 2026 | SC Freiburg | 2–3 | Bayern München | Bundesliga |
| 22 Nov 2025 | Bayern München | 6–2 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 25 Jan 2025 | SC Freiburg | 1–2 | Bayern München | Bundesliga |
| 1 Sep 2024 | Bayern München | 2–0 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 1 Mar 2024 | SC Freiburg | 2–2 | Bayern München | Bundesliga |
| 8 Oct 2023 | Bayern München | 3–0 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1M. Backhaus
Defenders
- 29P. Treu
- 28M. Ginter
- 3P. Lienhart
- 33J. Makengo
Midfielders
- 8M. Eggestein
- 6P. Osterhage
- 19J. Beste
- 14Y. Suzuki
- 7D. Scherhant
Forward
- 9L. Höler
Substitutes (9)
- 20R. Yamamoto
- 37M. Rosenfelder
- 21F. Müller
- 31I. Matanović
- 17L. Kübler
- 22Cyriaque Kalou Irié
- 30C. Günter
- 32V. Grifo
- 42K. Goto
Goalkeeper
- 40J. Urbig
Defenders
- 44J. Stanišić
- 2D. Upamecano
- 4J. Tah
- 11N. Brown
Midfielders
- 27K. Laimer
- 8T. Bischof
- 42L. Karl
- 17M. Olise
- 7S. Gnabry
Forward
- 9H. Kane
Substitutes (9)
- 34I. Saibari
- 47David Daiber
- 30Cassiano Kiala
- 21H. Ito
- 19A. Davies
- 35Jannis Bärtl
- 46T. Binder
- 26S. Ulreich
- 23S. Boey
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- DoubtY. EngelhardtInjury
- DoubtB. YilmazLacking Match Fitness
- OutT. BuchmannKnee
- OutL. DiazMuscle
- OutKim Min-JaeKnee
Show 2 more
- OutJ. KimmichPersonal Reasons
- OutJ. MusialaMuscle
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Freiburg sit third in the Bundesliga with 13 points from six matches, having won all three home league games this season.[3]
- Bayern are second with 14 points from six matches and have won all three home league games, drawing all three away.[3][5]
- Bayern are unbeaten in 49 Bundesliga matches and scored 22 goals in their opening six league games.[5]
- Bayern beat RB Leipzig 6-1 in the league last weekend before drawing 2-2 with Arsenal in the Champions League.[3][5]
- Freiburg have won all five competitive home matches this season.[3]
Still unclear
- Whether Tom Bischof or Bara Sapoko Ndiaye will start in midfield for Bayern
- Whether Jamal Musiala will be available for selection
Sources
- bavarianfootballworks.com – Aleksandar Pavlović to miss Bayern Munich’s clash against SC Freiburg with calf problems - Bavarian Football Works (2026-10-25)
- sports.yahoo.com – Bayern Munich’s Manuel Neuer officially ruled out for SC Freiburg tilt - Yahoo Sports (2026-10-24)
- sports.yahoo.com – SC Freiburg vs. Bayern Munich preview: Hosts look to bounce back against depleted Bayern - Yahoo Sports (2026-10-24)
- onefootball.com – Neuer out, Kompany absent as Bayern count injuries for Freiburg trip - OneFootball (2026-10-24)
- sports.yahoo.com – Bundesliga Matchday Preview: SC Freiburg vs. Bayern Munich - Yahoo Sports (2026-10-24)
- sports.yahoo.com – Can Bayern Munich pull this out against SC Freiburg with a skeleton crew? - Yahoo Sports (2026-10-25)
Match context
- Rest days
- SC Freiburg 2Bayern München 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: SC Freiburg 3 · Bayern München 3
- Referee
- Felix Zwayer
- Coaches
- V. Kompany
- Bayern München, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Bundesliga average: 3.56 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
