Mainz vs Werder Bremen prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Mainz to win: 52%, about 1 in 2
The Verdict
Our numbers move only slightly from the bookmakers' (home down 4 points, away and draw up 2 each), because Mainz's home form offers little support for a stronger home lean. The Dressing Room's view was not followed: it favoured Bremen's momentum, but eight absent players outweigh that attacking record.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Werder Bremen's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Werder Bremen favourites.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsMainz's defensive structure and opponent's injury crisis give them the edge.
Werder Bremen is severely impacted by injuries, with 8 players listed as out or doubtful. Mainz has maintained defensive solidity, recording three clean sheets this campaign. Werder Bremen has shown strong comeback ability, drawing 2-2 after being 2-0 down.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureWerder Bremen's offensive momentum and historical advantage give them the edge in this clash.
Werder Bremen, despite having come from six consecutive matches conceding goals, has scored in seven consecutive fixtures. The match is held at the Mewa Arena, where Werder Bremen holds a historical advantage.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongWerder Bremen's attacking consistency and historical edge suggest a high-scoring draw.
FSV Mainz 05 has secured three clean sheets this campaign. Werder Bremen has scored in seven consecutive matches but has conceded 12 goals this season. Historically, Werder Bremen holds a significant advantage with 20 wins compared to Mainz's 13.
Werder Bremen: clearly underrated
More goalsMed✓ Right AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Fifth-placed Mainz host eighth-placed Werder Bremen at the Mewa Arena. Mainz are unbeaten away but winless at home, while Bremen's lengthy injury list shapes their selection. Both sides have reason to expect goals, given Bremen's scoring run and defensive record.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Mainz win or draw
- 77%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Werder Bremen win or draw
- 48%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 74%
- 3+ goals
- 49%
- 4+ goals
- 27%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 51%
- No
- 49%
We expect about 1.6 goals from Mainz and 1.0 from Werder Bremen. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–0 (12%), 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (9%), 0–1 (7%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 56% | 23% | 21% | 65% |
| AI analysts | 39% | 29% | 32% | 66% |
| Our forecast | 52% | 25% | 23% | – |
Verdict: We trim the home probability slightly because Mainz have yet to win at home this season and Bremen carry a long scoring run into the match, while Bremen's eight absences and poor away record stop us going further in their direction.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% | 23% | 22% | Stats preview | #700 | |
| 2 | 52% | 25% | 23% | Full analysis | #874 | |
| 3 | 52% | 25% | 23% | Updated news and prices | #1036 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Mainz: last 6
WLWLWD · 14 scored, 10 conceded
| 17 Oct | at FC Schalke 04 | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Bayer Leverkusen | 3–4 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4–3 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | 1–3 | L |
| 6 Sep | at Hamburger SV | 5–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | vs SC Paderborn 07 | 0–0 | D |
Last 3 at home: LLD
Werder Bremen: last 6
DDWDWL · 12 scored, 12 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs SC Paderborn 07 | 2–2 | D |
| 9 Oct | at Borussia Dortmund | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs FC Augsburg | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sep | at 1. FC Köln | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs RB Leipzig | 3–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | at SC Freiburg | 1–4 | L |
Last 4 away: DDLW
Season stats
| Mainz | Werder Bremen | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.33 | Goals scored per game | 2.00 |
| 1.67 | Goals conceded per game | 2.00 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game at home | 2.67 |
| 3.33 | Scored per game away | 1.33 |
| 67% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 83% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 100% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 17% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 6 games each.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 6 | +9 | 13 | LWDWW |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | +4 | 13 | LWWWD |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 7 | +9 | 12 | WLWLW |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | +1 | 12 | WDDWD |
| 7 | Mainz | 7 | +3 | 10 | LWLWL |
| 8 | SV Elversberg | 7 | -3 | 10 | LWLDL |
| 9 | FC Augsburg | 7 | +4 | 9 | DLDLD |
| 10 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 7 | +0 | 9 | WWLLW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Mainz won 1, Werder Bremen 4, 1 draw; 2.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 2026 | Werder Bremen | 0–2 | Mainz | Bundesliga |
| 1 Nov 2025 | Mainz | 1–1 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 31 Jan 2025 | Werder Bremen | 1–0 | Mainz | Bundesliga |
| 15 Sep 2024 | Mainz | 1–2 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 3 Feb 2024 | Mainz | 0–1 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 2 Sep 2023 | Werder Bremen | 4–0 | Mainz | Bundesliga |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1A. Schwolow
Defenders
- 21D. da Costa
- 4S. Posch
- 48K. Potulski
Midfielders
- 19A. Caci
- 7Lee Jae-Sung
- 6K. Sano
- 10N. Amiri
- 2P. Mwene
Forwards
- 23S. Becker
- 9P. Tietz
Substitutes (9)
- 3F. Gruber
- 17B. Hollerbach
- 40M. Kinzig
- 11R. Königsdörffer
- 15L. Maloney
- 5E. Martel
- 47R. Nakuzola
- 8P. Nebel
- 30S. Widmer
Goalkeeper
- 1K. Hein
Defenders
- 13Arthur
- 5A. Pieper
- 32M. Friedl
- 2O. Deman
Midfielders
- 15L. Reis
- 44Y. Regeer
- 8M. Weiser
- 20Chuky San José
- 17M. Grüll
Forward
- 10N. Füllkrug
Substitutes (9)
- 18E. Dinkçi
- 38P. Erevbenagie
- 26C. Itten
- 14S. Lynen
- 19K. Quetant
- 30A. Schlager
- 33Mick Schmetgens
- 23Dariusz Stalmach
- 3O. Wójcik
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutD. KohrFoot
- OutO. RuoppiKnee
- OutSilasBroken shinbone
Show 1 more
- OutR. ZentnerHand
- OutF. AguCalf
- OutS. AlveroCalf
- OutS. MusahMuscle
Show 5 more
- OutM. N'DiayeGroin
- OutJ. NjinmahThigh
- OutJ. StageMuscle
- OutN. StarkMuscle
- OutK. ToppKnee
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Mainz sit 5th with 10 points from 6 games, while Werder Bremen are 8th with 9 points.[2]
- Mainz have not won at home this season (0 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses) but have won all three away games.[2]
- Werder Bremen are winless away this season, with two draws and one defeat.[2]
- Mainz have kept three clean sheets this campaign.[3][6]
- Werder Bremen have conceded 12 goals this season and have not kept a clean sheet.[3][6]
- Werder Bremen have scored in seven consecutive matches but also conceded in six straight games.[2]
- Coach Urs Fischer noted Bremen have come back from 2-0 down on three occasions.[3][6]
- Coach Daniel Thioune warned Mainz defend in a low block and are very physical.[3][6]
Sources
- onefootball.com – PREVIEW | Mainz vs Werder Bremen: team news, lineups ...
- bulinews.com – Mainz vs Werder Bremen Preview: Battle of the strikers - Bulinews
- bulinews.com – Mainz vs Werder Bremen Preview: Battle of the strikers - Bulinews (2026-10-23)
Match context
- Rest days
- Mainz 7Werder Bremen 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Mainz 1 · Werder Bremen 1
- Referee
- Florian Badstubner
- Goals in this league
- Bundesliga average: 3.71 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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