Tigre vs Atletico Tucuman prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Tigre to win: 56%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 64% · bookies 64% · ✓ 1 goals
The Verdict
All three readings land near the published numbers: Tigre favoured at 58% with the draw a live runner given four draws in the last six head-to-heads. The sceptic sees the 37% over line as fair to slightly generous against a 1.0 goals-per-game rivalry, while the dressing room notes neither side carries pressure. A low-scoring home win is the consensus shape.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo blunt attacks point to a tight, low-scoring home lean
Tigre keep clean sheets 28% of the time, Tucuman 38%, and both fail to score around a third of the time. Both-teams-score rates of 55% and 52% sit well above the 37% published for this match.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureMid-table pair, but Tigre's slump makes this feel uneasy
Tigre sit 11th on 33 points from 29 games, Tucuman 13th on 28, so little separates them. Both had six days' rest, though Tigre played twice in 14 days to Tucuman's once.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongMarket leans Tigre, but the draw case looks underpriced here
Tigre have lost five of six, so 58% looks high; the draw at 25% seems light given four draws in the last six head-to-heads and three 0-0s among them. The 37% over line sits near the 45% over-2.5 rate for Tucuman, but 1.0 goals per game in this fixture argues under.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Tigre are favourites at 56%, with Atletico Tucuman on 17% and the draw on 27%. Tigre are 11th and Atletico Tucuman 13th in Liga Profesional. Neither side has won any of their last five league games.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Tigre win or draw
- 83%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Atletico Tucuman win or draw
- 44%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 63%
- 3+ goals
- 36%
- 4+ goals
- 17%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 38%
- No
- 62%
We expect about 1.5 goals from Tigre and 0.7 from Atletico Tucuman. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (17%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 6. Next: 2–0 (13%), 0–0 (12%), 1–1 (12%), 2–1 (9%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Tigre: last 6
DLLLLL · 7 scored, 12 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Independ. Rivadavia | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Banfield | 1–2 | L |
| 4 Oct | at Argentinos JRS | 1–2 | L |
| 21 Sep | at Velez Sarsfield | 2–3 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Rosario Central | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | at Gimnasia L.P. | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: LLDWL
Atletico Tucuman: last 6
LDLLLW · 8 scored, 11 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Rosario Central | 2–3 | L |
| 9 Oct | at Gimnasia L.P. | 1–1 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Barracas Central | 2–3 | L |
| 21 Sep | at Aldosivi | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs River Plate | 1–2 | L |
| 7 Sep | at Racing Club | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 away: DLWWD
Season stats
| Tigre | Atletico Tucuman | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.07 | Goals scored per game | 0.93 |
| 1.03 | Goals conceded per game | 1.14 |
| 1.07 | Scored per game at home | 0.93 |
| 1.07 | Scored per game away | 0.93 |
| 38% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 45% |
| 55% | Both teams scored | 52% |
| 28% | Clean sheets | 38% |
| 34% | Failed to score | 31% |
League matches only, 29 games each.
Liga Profesional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Barracas Central | 29 | +1 | 40 | DWWLD |
| 9 | Sarmiento Junin | 30 | -6 | 40 | LDDWL |
| 10 | Racing Club | 31 | -4 | 36 | DLWWL |
| 11 | Tigre | 30 | +0 | 33 | LDLLL |
| 12 | Banfield | 30 | -7 | 32 | DLWDD |
| 13 | Atletico Tucuman | 30 | -5 | 31 | WLDLL |
| 14 | Aldosivi | 29 | -21 | 16 | LLLWL |
| 15 | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 29 | -28 | 14 | WLLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Tigre won 1, Atletico Tucuman 1, 4 draws; 1.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr 2026 | Atletico Tucuman | 0–0 | Tigre | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 8 Oct 2024 | Atletico Tucuman | 1–2 | Tigre | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 21 May 2023 | Tigre | 0–0 | Atletico Tucuman | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 17 Aug 2022 | Tigre | 0–0 | Atletico Tucuman | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 15 Sep 2018 | Atletico Tucuman | 3–0 | Tigre | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 25 Feb 2018 | Atletico Tucuman | 0–0 | Tigre | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Match context
- Rest days
- Tigre 6Atletico Tucuman 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Tigre 2 · Atletico Tucuman 1
- Referee
- Brian Ferreyra
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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