Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento (Junín) prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Gimnasia L.P. to win: 58%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 54% · bookies 54% · ✓ 2 goals
The Verdict
The consensus points towards Gimnasia L.P. being the marginal favourite, supported by their home scoring rate and league position. However, the high frequency of draws in the head-to-head record suggests the match could be tight, with the probability of over 2.5 goals remaining moderate.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersGimnasia's strong home attack should provide the edge in this fixture.
Gimnasia L.P. scores 1.50 goals per game at home, while Sarmiento Junin scores 1.07 goals per game away. Both teams have a 55% rate of matches with both teams scoring.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThe current league standings suggest Gimnasia holds a slight advantage heading into the match.
Gimnasia L.P. sits 6th in the table with 51 points, while Sarmiento Junin is 9th with 40 points. Gimnasia has 7 days rest compared to Sarmiento Junin's 3 days.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market may be overestimating a clear winner given the historical draw frequency.
In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, there have been 4 draws. Gimnasia L.P. has been inconsistent in form, with 3 draws in their last 6 fixtures.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Gimnasia L.P. are favourites at 58%, with Sarmiento (Junín) on 17% and the draw on 25%. Gimnasia L.P. are 6th and Sarmiento (Junín) 9th in Liga Profesional. In their last five league games, Gimnasia L.P. won one and Sarmiento (Junín) one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Gimnasia L.P. win or draw
- 83%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Sarmiento (Junín) win or draw
- 42%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 71%
- 3+ goals
- 45%
- 4+ goals
- 24%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 45%
- No
- 55%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Gimnasia L.P. and 0.8 from Sarmiento (Junín). (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% | 25% | 17% | Stats preview | #626 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Gimnasia L.P.: last 6
WDDDDW · 9 scored, 7 conceded
| 15 Oct | at Huracan | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Atletico Tucuman | 1–1 | D |
| 3 Oct | at Independ. Rivadavia | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Banfield | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sep | at Argentinos JRS | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs Tigre | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: DDWLW
Sarmiento (Junín): last 6
DDWLDW · 9 scored, 7 conceded
| 19 Oct | vs Barracas Central | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Oct | vs River Plate | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Oct | at Aldosivi | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Racing Club | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Belgrano Cordoba | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Sep | at Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 away: WLWLW
Season stats
| Gimnasia L.P. | Sarmiento (Junín) | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.26 | Goals scored per game | 1.21 |
| 1.26 | Goals conceded per game | 1.34 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game at home | 1.33 |
| 1.06 | Scored per game away | 1.07 |
| 52% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 48% |
| 55% | Both teams scored | 55% |
| 26% | Clean sheets | 28% |
| 23% | Failed to score | 21% |
League matches only, 31 and 29 games.
Liga Profesional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Argentinos JRS | 32 | +13 | 61 | WDWLD |
| 3 | Belgrano Cordoba | 33 | +12 | 58 | LWWWD |
| 4 | River Plate | 33 | +17 | 56 | WDWLW |
| 5 | Gimnasia L.P. | 32 | +2 | 54 | WWDDD |
| 6 | Independ. Rivadavia | 30 | +9 | 53 | DLDWW |
| 7 | Huracan | 32 | +2 | 44 | LLLWW |
| 8 | Barracas Central | 29 | +1 | 40 | DWWLD |
| 9 | Sarmiento (Junín) | 30 | -6 | 40 | LDDWL |
| 10 | Racing Club | 31 | -4 | 36 | DLWWL |
| 11 | Tigre | 30 | +0 | 33 | LDLLL |
| 12 | Banfield | 30 | -7 | 32 | DLWDD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Gimnasia L.P. won 2, Sarmiento (Junín) 0, 4 draws; 1.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Apr 2026 | Sarmiento (Junín) | 1–2 | Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 4 Oct 2025 | Sarmiento (Junín) | 0–1 | Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 30 Mar 2025 | Gimnasia L.P. | 0–0 | Sarmiento (Junín) | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 18 Oct 2024 | Sarmiento (Junín) | 1–1 | Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 27 May 2023 | Gimnasia L.P. | 0–0 | Sarmiento (Junín) | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 28 Aug 2022 | Sarmiento (Junín) | 0–0 | Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Match context
- Rest days
- Gimnasia L.P. 7Sarmiento (Junín) 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Gimnasia L.P. 1 · Sarmiento (Junín) 2
- Referee
- Sebastian Nicolas Martinez
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
